Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts
22 Sep 2000-Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)-Vol. 289, Iss: 5487, pp 2068-2074
TL;DR: Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed.
Abstract: One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.
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TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
TL;DR: A review of the ecological impacts of recent climate change exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments.
Abstract: There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.
9,369 citations
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe
7,720 citations
TL;DR: Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change.
Abstract: Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level
7,657 citations
Cites background from "Climate Extremes: Observations, Mod..."
...El Niño events have been increasing in frequency and severity since records began in the early 1900s, and researchers expect this trend to continue over coming decades (Easterling et al. 2000, IPCC 2001b, Meehl et al. 2000)....
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01 Jan 2007
4,769 citations
Cites background from "Climate Extremes: Observations, Mod..."
...5 covers the impact of climate change on energy supply, such as extreme events (Easterling et al., 2000), the effect of warming on infrastructure (such as damage to gas and oil pipelines caused by permafrost melt) and changes in water levels for hydro projects (Nelson et al....
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References
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Book•
01 Jun 1996
TL;DR: The most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment available for scientific understanding of human influences on the past present and future climate is "Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change" as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: This extensive report entitled “Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change” is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment available for scientific understanding of human influences on the past present and future climate. Its aim is to provide objective information on which to base global climate change that will ultimately meet the aim of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The report includes an overview of the factors governing climate and climate change and quantification of the sources of globally important greenhouse gases and other pollutants arising from human activities. A review of the chemical and biological processes governing their removal from the atmosphere is presented. Also included is an assessment of recent trends in climate during the industrial era which has witnessed the ever-growing impact of human activities on the global environment. The strengths and weaknesses of various climate mathematical models used by researchers for understanding the past and present climate and for calculating possible future climates are assessed. Furthermore the report discusses research aimed at the detection of human influence on the climate of the last century and presents future change projections in global climate and sea level based on a range of scenarios of future emissions of pollutants due to human activity. Finally a list of research and observational priorities needed to improve scientific understanding in key areas is presented.
4,397 citations
"Climate Extremes: Observations, Mod..." refers result in this paper
...A. Kattenberg et al., Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change, the IPCC Second Assessment Report, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds....
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...Although the climate-impacts community has some history in examining changes in second-order climate variables, such as heating and cooling degree days, a number of recent modeling results have explored new aspects of changes in extremes since the IPCC Second Assessment Report....
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...Some of the results of model studies published since the IPCC Second Assessment Report (41) have corroborated the previous results....
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TL;DR: The authors showed that migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation, and further global warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years, and some migratory animals can respond quickly to climate variation.
Abstract: Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years(1-3) Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation ...
2,162 citations
01 Jan 2000
TL;DR: Evidence from long-term monitoring studies suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.
Abstract: he prospect that increases inatmospheric concentrationsof greenhouse gases willhave measurable effects on theearth’s climate over the next fewdecades has attracted a vastresearch effort. Climatologistshave faced two main challenges.The first has been to distinguishthe signal of human-induced cli-mate change from the noise ofinterannual and decadal naturalvariability. The second has been topredict probable climate scenariosfor the future. Climate monitoringover the past century and long-term reconstructions of climateover the past millennium indicatethat the earth is indeed warmingup (Fig. 1)
1,923 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.
Abstract: Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world's climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.
1,852 citations