Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change
01 Jan 2013-Vol. 9781107057999, pp 1217-1308
About: The article was published on 2013-01-01 and is currently open access. It has received 958 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Political economy of climate change & Climate change.
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01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a survey of women's sportswriters in South Africa and Ivory Coast, including: Marco Bindi (Italy), Sally Brown (UK), Ines Camilloni (Argentina), Arona Diedhiou (Ivory Coast/Senegal), Riyanti Djalante (Japan/Indonesia), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Joel Guiot (France), Yasuaki Hijioka (Japan), Shagun Mehrotra (USA/India), Ant
Abstract: Lead Authors: Marco Bindi (Italy), Sally Brown (UK), Ines Camilloni (Argentina), Arona Diedhiou (Ivory Coast/Senegal), Riyanti Djalante (Japan/Indonesia), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Joel Guiot (France), Yasuaki Hijioka (Japan), Shagun Mehrotra (USA/India), Antony Payne (UK), Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas), Rachel Warren (UK), Guangsheng Zhou (China)
614 citations
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory1, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory2, City University of Hong Kong3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology4, Seoul National University5, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration6, India Meteorological Department7, University of Tokyo8, University of Melbourne9, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology10
TL;DR: In this article, model projections of tropical cyclone activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed and observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate that tropical cyclones respond well to global warming.
Abstract: Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate ...
536 citations
14 Jun 2019
TL;DR: In this paper, Abd Elgawad et al. discuss the sea level rise and its implications for low lying islands, coastlines and communities in the Middle East and Asia.
Abstract: Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 4-1 Total pages: 139 1 Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand), Tuhin Ghosh 4 (India) 5 6 Lead Authors: Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Rongshuo Cai (China), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), 7 Rob Deconto (USA), John Hay (Cook Islands), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Federico Isla (Argentina), 8 Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Zita Sebesvari 9 (Hungary), AJ Smit (South Africa), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Maya Buchanan (USA), Gonéri Le Cozannet (France), Catia Domingues 12 (Australia), Virginie Duvat (France), Tamsin Edwards (UK), Miguel D. Fortes (Philippines), Thomas 13 Frederikse (Netherlands), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Robert Kopp (USA), Erwin Lambert (Netherlands), 14 Elizabeth McLeod (USA), Mark Merrifield (USA), Siddharth Narayan (US), Robert J. Nicholls (UK), 15 Fabrice Renaud (UK), Jonathan Simm (UK), Jon Woodruff (USA), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), Siyuan Xian 16 (USA) 17 18 Review Editors: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Kapil Gupta (India), Joy Pereira (Malaysia) 19 20 Chapter Scientist Maya Buchanan (USA) 21 22 Date of Draft: 20 April 2018 23 24 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 25 26
529 citations
TL;DR: Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, this work provides compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.
Abstract: There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901–2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.
522 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide historical accounts of major milestones and synthesize recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region, and reveal a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution.
Abstract: ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Nino summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Nino stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.
482 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales.
Abstract: Evidence gleaned from the instrumental record of climate data identifies a robust, recurring pattern of ocean–atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin. Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales. There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977; the last two reversals correspond to dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal sea and continental surface air temperatures, as well as streamflow in major west coast river systems, from Alaska to California.
6,719 citations
Joint Global Change Research Institute1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Victoria University of Wellington3, Electric Power Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Finnish Environment Institute6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, Met Office8, Vienna University of Technology9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Stanford University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
5,670 citations
Book Chapter•
01 Oct 2007
5,004 citations
TL;DR: An analysis of observational data over the past 40 years shows a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean: a pattern of internal variability with anomalously low sea surface temperatures off Sumatra and high seasurface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind and precipitation anomalies.
Abstract: For the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, internal modes of variability that lead to climatic oscillations have been recognized1,2, but in the Indian Ocean region a similar ocean–atmosphere interaction causing interannual climate variability has not yet been found3. Here we report an analysis of observational data over the past 40 years, showing a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean: a pattern of internal variability with anomalously low sea surface temperatures off Sumatra and high sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind and precipitation anomalies. The spatio-temporal links between sea surface temperatures and winds reveal a strong coupling through the precipitation field and ocean dynamics. This air–sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The discovery of this dipole mode that accounts for about 12% of the sea surface temperature variability in the Indian Ocean—and, in its active years, also causes severe rainfall in eastern Africa and droughts in Indonesia—brightens the prospects for a long-term forecast of rainfall anomalies in the affected countries.
4,385 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors constructed a 2.5° latitude-longitude grid for the 17-yr period from 1979 to 1995 by merging several kinds of information sources with different characteristics, including gauge observations, estimates inferred from a variety of satellite observations, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis.
Abstract: Gridded fields (analyses) of global monthly precipitation have been constructed on a 2.5° latitude–longitude grid for the 17-yr period from 1979 to 1995 by merging several kinds of information sources with different characteristics, including gauge observations, estimates inferred from a variety of satellite observations, and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. This new dataset, which the authors have named the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), contains precipitation distributions with full global coverage and improved quality compared to the individual data sources. Examinations showed no discontinuity during the 17-yr period, despite the different data sources used for the different subperiods. Comparisons of the CMAP with the merged analysis of Huffman et al. revealed remarkable agreements over the global land areas and over tropical and subtropical oceanic areas, with differences observed over extratropical oceanic areas. The 17-yr CMAP dataset is used to investigate the annual and interannual variab...
4,216 citations