Posted Content•
Code and data files for "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets"
TL;DR: In this article, all Matlab and C++ programs necessary to produce the results of the article were described and a spreadsheet with Mexican data was also provided, along with a spreadsheet containing Mexican data.
Abstract: All Matlab and C++ programs necessary to produce the results of the article. There is also a Excel spreadsheet with Mexican data.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: In this paper, a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles is proposed, which explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios and key business cycle moments.
Abstract: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
464 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960-2013 that comprises corporate income, personal income, and value-added tax rates and find that tax policy is a cyclical in industrial countries but mostly procyclical in developing countries.
Abstract: It is well known by now that government spending has typically been procyclical in developing economies but a cyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries. Little, if any, is known, however, about the cyclical behavior of tax rates (as opposed to tax revenues, which are endogenous to the business cycle and hence cannot shed light on the cyclicality of tax policy). The authors build a novel dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960-2013 that comprises corporate income, personal income, and value-added tax rates. The authors find that, by and large, tax policy is a cyclical in industrial countries but mostly procyclical in developing countries. Further, tax policy in countries with better institutions and or more integrated with world capital markets tends to be less procyclical or more countercyclical.
142 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power, and show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions.
Abstract: We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlation between economic conditions and default decisions, a higher and more volatile spread, and lower borrowing levels after a default episode.
132 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify critical flaws in the traditional approach to evaluate debt sustainability, and examine three alternative approaches that provide useful econometric and model-simulation tools to analyze debt sustainability.
Abstract: The question of what is a sustainable public debt is paramount in the macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy. This question is usually formulated as asking whether the outstanding public debt and its projected path are consistent with those of the government's revenues and expenditures (ie, whether fiscal solvency conditions hold). We identify critical flaws in the traditional approach to evaluate debt sustainability, and examine three alternative approaches that provide useful econometric and model-simulation tools to analyze debt sustainability. The first approach is Bohn's nonstructural empirical framework based on a fiscal reaction function that characterizes the dynamics of sustainable debt and primary balances. The second is a structural approach based on a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium framework with a fully specified fiscal sector, which we use to quantify the positive and normative effects of fiscal policies aimed at restoring fiscal solvency in response to changes in debt. The third approach deviates from the others in assuming that governments cannot commit to repay their domestic debt and can thus optimally decide to default even if debt is sustainable in terms of fiscal solvency. We use these three approaches to analyze debt sustainability in the United States and Europe after the sharp increases in public debt following the 2008 crisis, and find that all three raise serious questions about the prospects of fiscal adjustment and its consequences.
110 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies and show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interestrate movements.
Abstract: We study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. We show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interestrate movements. This makes the discrete state technique significantly more inefficient than using Chebyshev polynomials or cubic spline interpolation to approximate the value functions. We show that the inefficiency of the discrete state space technique is more severe for parameterizations that feature a high sensitivity of the bond price to the borrowing level for the borrowing levels that are observed more frequently in the simulations. In addition, we find that the efficiency of the discrete state space technique can be greatly improved by (i) finding the equilibrium as the limit of the equilibrium of the finite-horizon version of the model, instead of iterating separately on the value and bond price functions and (ii) concentrating grid points in asset levels at which the bond price is more sensitive to the borrowing level and in levels that are observed more often in the model simulations. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets.
105 citations
References
More filters
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate sovereign default models, full-nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) with micro-founded financial imperfections, applying a particle filter, and evaluate the source of financial frictions.
Abstract: There are two literature strands that explain stylized facts in emerging economies: the stochastic productivity trend or financial frictions. However, financial frictions are driven by both trend and stationary productivity shocks, thus distinguishing their impact from the direct role of output fluctuations is essential. We estimate sovereign default models, full-nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) with micro-founded financial imperfections, applying a particle filter, and evaluate the source of financial frictions. The main finding is that stationary shocks rather than trend shocks account for financial frictions and the resulting countercyclicality, except for the post-1977 period in Mexico; however, the exception disappears for 1902?2005 as long-run data. The sources of financial frictions are determined by the persistence and volatility of shocks, asymmetric domestic cost of sovereign default, and mismatch between sovereign default and business cycles.
4 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a sovereign default framework that allows them to quantify the importance of the debt dilution problem in accounting for overborrowing and sovereign default risk, and they find that such dilution accounts for 12% of the mean debt level and almost 100% of default risk.
Abstract: We propose a sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of the debt dilution problem in accounting for overborrowing and sovereign default risk. We find that debt dilution accounts for 12% of the mean debt level and almost 100% of the sovereign default risk in the simulations of a baseline model. Even without commitment to future repayment policies and without contingency of sovereign debt, if the sovereign could eliminate the dilution problem, the number of default per 100 years in our simulations decreases from 2.72 with debt dilution to 0.01 without debt dilution. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets where the debt dilution problem could appear.
4 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts, and they show that, although anticipated bailouts lead to higher borrowing, this may correct for the underissuance of debt due to the lack of cross country policy coordination, and that bailouts could be Pareto improving not only expost (after the debt has been issued) but also ex-ante (before the issuance of the debt).
Abstract: We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts. Because of portfolio diversification, the default of one country causes a macroeconomic contraction in other countries. This creates a vested-interest to bailout the defaulting country. A novel insight of the paper is that, although anticipated bailouts lead to higher borrowing, this may correct for the under-issuance of debt due to the lack of cross-country policy coordination. As a result, bailouts could be Pareto improving not only ex-post (after the debt has been issued) but also ex-ante (before the issuance of the debt).
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a small-scale macroeconomic model of the New Keynesian type was developed to rationalize the evidence that those economies with relatively better economic fundamen- tals were able to implement countercyclical policies.
Abstract: exico Abstract: Emerging economies have been subject to abrupt reversals in capital inflows, which have adverse consequences for economic activity and financial stability. An important question for policymakers is how to respond to a sudden loss of external financing and its negative effects on the domestic economy. The experience of emerging economies through the recent financial crisis shows that those economies with relatively better economic fundamen- tals were able to implement countercyclical policies. This paper provides a simple analytical framework to rationalize this evidence. In particular, it addresses this issue by developing a small-scale macroeconomic model of the New Keynesian type. Numerical exercises illustrate how both credible monetary and fiscal policies increase policymakers' degrees of freedom to
4 citations
TL;DR: This article developed a micro-founded global games model of debt crises and used this model to study which policies can help to prevent expectations-driven crises and how the desirability of such policies depends on market participants' expectations and the presence of economic policy uncertainty.
3 citations