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Code and data files for "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets"

TL;DR: In this article, all Matlab and C++ programs necessary to produce the results of the article were described and a spreadsheet with Mexican data was also provided, along with a spreadsheet containing Mexican data.
Abstract: All Matlab and C++ programs necessary to produce the results of the article. There is also a Excel spreadsheet with Mexican data.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles is proposed, which explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios and key business cycle moments.
Abstract: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

464 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960-2013 that comprises corporate income, personal income, and value-added tax rates and find that tax policy is a cyclical in industrial countries but mostly procyclical in developing countries.
Abstract: It is well known by now that government spending has typically been procyclical in developing economies but a cyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries. Little, if any, is known, however, about the cyclical behavior of tax rates (as opposed to tax revenues, which are endogenous to the business cycle and hence cannot shed light on the cyclicality of tax policy). The authors build a novel dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960-2013 that comprises corporate income, personal income, and value-added tax rates. The authors find that, by and large, tax policy is a cyclical in industrial countries but mostly procyclical in developing countries. Further, tax policy in countries with better institutions and or more integrated with world capital markets tends to be less procyclical or more countercyclical.

142 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power, and show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions.
Abstract: We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlation between economic conditions and default decisions, a higher and more volatile spread, and lower borrowing levels after a default episode.

132 citations

Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify critical flaws in the traditional approach to evaluate debt sustainability, and examine three alternative approaches that provide useful econometric and model-simulation tools to analyze debt sustainability.
Abstract: The question of what is a sustainable public debt is paramount in the macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy. This question is usually formulated as asking whether the outstanding public debt and its projected path are consistent with those of the government's revenues and expenditures (ie, whether fiscal solvency conditions hold). We identify critical flaws in the traditional approach to evaluate debt sustainability, and examine three alternative approaches that provide useful econometric and model-simulation tools to analyze debt sustainability. The first approach is Bohn's nonstructural empirical framework based on a fiscal reaction function that characterizes the dynamics of sustainable debt and primary balances. The second is a structural approach based on a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium framework with a fully specified fiscal sector, which we use to quantify the positive and normative effects of fiscal policies aimed at restoring fiscal solvency in response to changes in debt. The third approach deviates from the others in assuming that governments cannot commit to repay their domestic debt and can thus optimally decide to default even if debt is sustainable in terms of fiscal solvency. We use these three approaches to analyze debt sustainability in the United States and Europe after the sharp increases in public debt following the 2008 crisis, and find that all three raise serious questions about the prospects of fiscal adjustment and its consequences.

110 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies and show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interestrate movements.
Abstract: We study the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. We show that this method necessitates a large number of grid points to avoid generating spurious interestrate movements. This makes the discrete state technique significantly more inefficient than using Chebyshev polynomials or cubic spline interpolation to approximate the value functions. We show that the inefficiency of the discrete state space technique is more severe for parameterizations that feature a high sensitivity of the bond price to the borrowing level for the borrowing levels that are observed more frequently in the simulations. In addition, we find that the efficiency of the discrete state space technique can be greatly improved by (i) finding the equilibrium as the limit of the equilibrium of the finite-horizon version of the model, instead of iterating separately on the value and bond price functions and (ii) concentrating grid points in asset levels at which the bond price is more sensitive to the borrowing level and in levels that are observed more often in the model simulations. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets.

105 citations

References
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Dissertation
01 Jan 2010
TL;DR: Banerjee et al. as discussed by the authors provided a dynamic equilibrium model of optimal aid policy that quantitatively accounts for the fact that the donor wants to encourage actions by the aid receiving government that increase output and smooth out economic fluctuations.
Abstract: TITLE OF DISSERTATION: ESSAYS ON OPTIMAL AID AND FISCAL POLICY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Ryan Niladri Banerjee, Doctor of Philosophy, 2010 Dissertation directed by: Professor Enrique G. Mendoza Department of Economics Essay I: Which countries receive aid as insurance and why? A theory of optimal aid policy Empirical evidence shows that developing countries with opaque institutions receive procyclical Official Development Aid (ODA) while developing countries with transparent institutions receive acyclical or countercyclical ODA. This paper provides a dynamic equilibrium model of optimal aid policy that quantitatively accounts for this fact. In the model, the donor wants to (a) encourage actions by the aid receiving government that increase output and (b) smooth out economic fluctuations. The transparency of institutions in the country affects the donor’s ability to distinguish downturns caused by exogenous shocks, from those caused by government actions. The solution to the donor’s mechanism design problem is dependent on the transparency of government actions. If the donor has good information about government actions, aid policy is countercyclical and aid acts as insurance. However, if the donor is unable to infer perfectly the cause of the downturn, aid policy is procyclical to encourage unobservable good actions. The model predicts a similar pattern for ODA commitments for the following year which is supported by the data. For countries with opaque institutions procyclical aid is the result of optimal policies given the information constraints of donors. Essay II: New Evidence on the Relationship Between Aid Cyclicality and Institutions This paper documents a new fact: the correlation between official development assistance (ODA) and GDP is negatively related to the quality of institutions in the receipient country. Differences in institutional indicators that measure corruption, rule of law, government effectiveness and government transparency are particularly important. The results are robust to several modifications. The results hold for both pooled and within regressions specifications and for different sources of institutional quality measures. This fact also reconciles conflicting empirical results about the correlation between ODA and GDP in the literature. For instance, Pallage and Robe (2001) find a positive correlation in two thirds of African economies and half of non-African developing economies, but Rand and Tarp (2002) find no correlation in a different set of developing countries. First, once institutions are accounted for, African economies are not treated differently by donors. Second, the sample in Rand and Tarp (2002) comprises developing economies which have relatively good institutions, therefore, those countries receive acyclical or countercyclical aid. Essay II: Optimal Procyclical Fiscal Policy Without Procyclical Government Spending Procyclical fiscal policy can be caused by either procyclical government expenditure, countercyclical taxes or both. The majority of models which try to explain procyclical fiscal policy as the result of optimal policy have procyclical government expenditures. This paper develops a model which optimally generates procyclical fiscal policy while keeping government expenditures acyclical. Instead, taxes are optimally countercyclical. The model uses endogenous sovereign default to generate an environment where interest rates are lower in booms than in recessions. If household’s have insufficient access to financial instruments it is optimal for the government to lower taxes and borrow during booms. This enables impatient households to benefit from the lower interest rates in booms by helping the consumer bring consumption forward. ESSAYS ON OPTIMAL AID AND FISCAL POLICY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

2 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the Borda count method was used to overcome the problem of government budgets going into the red and showed that a budget-balanced choice is difficult to be chosen under relative majority rule.
Abstract: Survey data reveals that government budgets tend to go into the red. Public Choice economists as well as public finance economists have been interested in this phenomenon. This paper presents a new explanation for this tendency from the political economic point of view; the current voting system might have a tendency to bring about a budget deficit. If policy choices only deal with the current tax rate and do not take into account the intertemporal tax rate, budget-balanced choice is difficult to be chosen. Even if voting choices take into account intertemporal aspects, we show that a budget-balanced choice is difficult to be chosen under relative majority rule. We further demonstrate that the Borda count method might overcome this issue.

2 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors address sovereign default in a stochastic macroeconomic model with infinite horizon and the presence of a debt recovery rule and prove the existence of a threshold default, which is defined as a market event which can be observed when the fiscal policy is constrained by a tax rate ceiling.
Abstract: We address sovereign default in a stochastic macroeconomic model with infinite horizon and the presence of a debt recovery rule. Sovereign default is defined as a market event which can be observed when the fiscal policy is constrained by a tax rate ceiling. It occurs when the fiscal authority does not find on the market the funds necessary to reimburse its previous debt net of the primary surplus of the period. We analyze the pricing of public debt in relation with the debt recovery rule and prove the existence of a threshold default. Except in a specific case, this threshold is lower than the traditional solvency ratio. Using the dynamic implications of the model, we clarify the notion of sustainability and we disentangle it by defining a sustainability threshold and an un-sustainability threshold: A public debt is said to be “phi-sustainable” at date t when its trajectory does not reach the default threshold at any future date, assuming that there is no realization of the gross rate of growth lower than "phi". A public debt is said to be phi-unsustainable” at date t when its trajectory reaches the default threshold at some finite date, assuming that there is no realization of the gross rate of growth higher than "phi". When a public debt is neither "phi-unsustainable”, nor “phi-sustainable”, it is in a zone of financial fragility. When a sovereign default occurs, a too high recovery ratio is not able to insure the sustainability of the post-default debt.

2 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce fiscal policy into a sovereign debt model with endogenous default costs and examine the implications for the determination of the output costs of default, and they find that the quantitative properties of the outputs of default and their dependence on primitives such as the elasticity of labor supply are distinctly different depending on the margin of fiscal adjustment.
Abstract: We introduce fiscal policy into a sovereign debt model with endogenous default costs and examine the implications for the determination of the output costs of default. We find that the quantitative properties of the output costs of default, and their dependence on primitives such as the elasticity of labor supply, are distinctly different depending on the margin of fiscal adjustment. The consideration of fiscal policy thus has potentially important implications for the quantitative properties of models of sovereign debt and default.

2 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the optimal fiscal policy for a small open economy in a currency union in which the government cannot commit, and the response of the economic activity to government expenditures is highly nonlinear in the stock of external debt and the magnitude of the shocks.
Abstract: Is fiscal stimulus desirable when financing the government spending might imply a surge in borrowing costs and potentially lead to a sovereign debt crisis? This paper studies the optimal fiscal policy for a small open economy in a currency union in which the government cannot commit. In our two-sector dynamic model, the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity coupled with financial frictions may give rise to the welfare-improving effects of an expansionary fiscal policy. The government is confronted with a trade-off between the benefits of reducing unemployment and the financial costs of increasing external borrowing. A quantitative analysis is conducted to assess the desirability of austerity plans and stimulus programs in the context of the ongoing European debt crisis. In our theoretical framework, the response of the economic activity to government expenditures is highly nonlinear in the stock of external debt and the magnitude of the shocks.

2 citations