Computed Tomography Severity Index vs. Other Indices in the Prediction of Severity and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Predictive Accuracy Meta-analysis
TL;DR: Though APACHE II is the most accurate predictor of mortality, CTSI is a good predictor of both mortality and AP severity, which should be used more often in routine clinical practice.
Abstract: Background: The management of the moderate and severe forms of acute pancreatitis (AP) with necrosis and multiorgan failure remains a challenge. To predict the severity and mortality of AP multiple clinical, laboratory-, and imaging-based scoring systems are available. Aim: To investigate, if the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) can predict the outcomes of AP better than other scoring systems. Methods: A systematic search was performed in three databases: Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Eligible records provided data from consecutive AP cases and used CTSI or modified CTSI (mCTSI) alone or in combination with other prognostic scores [Ranson, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology, and Chronic Health Examination II (APACHE II), C-reactive protein (CRP)] for the evaluation of severity or mortality of AP. Area under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and aggregated with STATA 14 software using the metandi module. Results: Altogether, 30 studies were included in our meta-analysis, which contained the data of 5,988 AP cases. The pooled AUC for the prediction of mortality was 0.79 (CI 0.73-0.86) for CTSI; 0.87 (CI 0.83-0.90) for BISAP; 0.80 (CI 0.72-0.89) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.66-0.81) for CRP level; 0.87 (CI 0.81-0.92) for the Ranson score; and 0.91 (CI 0.88-0.93) for the APACHE II score. The APACHE II scoring system had significantly higher predictive value for mortality than CTSI and CRP (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively), while the predictive value of CTSI was not statistically different from that of BISAP, mCTSI, CRP, or Ranson criteria. The AUC for the prediction of severity of AP were 0.80 (CI 0.76-0.85) for CTSI; 0.79, (CI 0.72-0.86) for BISAP; 0.83 (CI 0.75-0.91) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.64-0.83) for CRP level; 0.81 (CI 0.75-0.87) for Ranson score and 0.80 (CI 0.77-0.83) for APACHE II score. Regarding severity, all tools performed equally. Conclusion: Though APACHE II is the most accurate predictor of mortality, CTSI is a good predictor of both mortality and AP severity. When the CT scan has been performed, CTSI is an easily calculable and informative tool, which should be used more often in routine clinical practice.
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TL;DR: In this article, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, which was derived on data collected from 17 992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000-2001.
Abstract: Background: Identification of patients at risk for mortality early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an important step in improving outcome. Methods: Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP. The scoring system was derived on data collected from 17 992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000-2001. The new scoring system was validated on data collected from 18 256 AP cases from 177 hospitals in 2004-2005. The accuracy of the scoring system for prediction of mortality was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the new scoring system was further validated by comparing its predictive accuracy with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II. Results: CART analysis identified five variables for prediction of in-hospital mortality. One point is assigned for the presence of each of the following during the first 24 h: blood urea nitrogen (BUN) >25 mg/dl; impaired mental status; systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); age >60 years; or the presence of a pleural effusion (BISAP). Mortality ranged from >20% in the highest risk group to <1% in the lowest risk group. In the validation cohort, the BISAP AUC was 0.82 (95% Cl 0.79 to 0.84) versus APACHE II AUC of 0.83 (95% Cl 0.80 to 0.85). Conclusions: A new mortality-based prognostic scoring system for use in AP has been derived and validated. The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality.
139 citations
TL;DR: An overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations is provided.
Abstract: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.
61 citations
TL;DR: The diagnosis of acute pancreatitis requires two of upper abdominal pain, amylase/lipase ≥ 3 × upper limit of normal, and/or cross-sectional imaging findings as mentioned in this paper .
Abstract: Acute pancreatitis is a common indication for hospital admission, increasing in incidence, including in children, pregnancy and the elderly. Moderately severe acute pancreatitis with fluid and/or necrotic collections causes substantial morbidity, and severe disease with persistent organ failure causes significant mortality. The diagnosis requires two of upper abdominal pain, amylase/lipase ≥ 3 ×upper limit of normal, and/or cross-sectional imaging findings. Gallstones and ethanol predominate while hypertriglyceridaemia and drugs are notable among many causes. Serum triglycerides, full blood count, renal and liver function tests, glucose, calcium, transabdominal ultrasound, and chest imaging are indicated, with abdominal cross-sectional imaging if there is diagnostic uncertainty. Subsequent imaging is undertaken to detect complications, for example, if C-reactive protein exceeds 150 mg/L, or rarer aetiologies. Pancreatic intracellular calcium overload, mitochondrial impairment, and inflammatory responses are critical in pathogenesis, targeted in current treatment trials, which are crucially important as there is no internationally licenced drug to treat acute pancreatitis and prevent complications. Initial priorities are intravenous fluid resuscitation, analgesia, and enteral nutrition, and when necessary, critical care and organ support, parenteral nutrition, antibiotics, pancreatic exocrine and endocrine replacement therapy; all may have adverse effects. Patients with local complications should be referred to specialist tertiary centres to guide further management, which may include drainage and/or necrosectomy. The impact of acute pancreatitis can be devastating, so prevention or reduction of the risk of recurrence and progression to chronic pancreatitis with an increased risk of pancreas cancer requires proactive management that should be long term for some patients.
31 citations
TL;DR: This study indicates superiority of IL-6 for the early prediction of MSAP/SAP and may be used for to guide clinical decision making.
31 citations
TL;DR: The present study enabled the identification, for the first time, of SIRI as a new prognostic tool for AP severity, and validated hepcidin and the NLR as better prognostic markers than C-reactive protein (CRP) at 48 h of symptom onset.
Abstract: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disorder of the pancreas that, when classified as severe, is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Promptly identifying the severity of AP is of extreme importance for improving clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of serological biomarkers, ratios, and multifactorial scores in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis and to identify the best predictors. In this observational and prospective study, the biomarkers, ratios and multifactorial scores were evaluated on admission and at 48 h of the symptom onset. On admission, regarding the AP severity, the white blood count (WBC) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and regarding the mortality, the WBC and the modified Marshall score (MMS) showed the best predictive values. At 48 h, regarding the AP severity, the hepcidin, NLR, systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and MMS and regarding the mortality, the NLR, hepcidin and the bedside index for severity in AP (BISAP) score, showed the best predictive values. The present study enabled the identification, for the first time, of SIRI as a new prognostic tool for AP severity, and validated hepcidin and the NLR as better prognostic markers than C-reactive protein (CRP) at 48 h of symptom onset.
28 citations
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TL;DR: Moher et al. as mentioned in this paper introduce PRISMA, an update of the QUOROM guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses, which is used in this paper.
Abstract: David Moher and colleagues introduce PRISMA, an update of the QUOROM guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses
62,157 citations
Journal Article•
26,749 citations
01 Jan 2011
12,469 citations
Additional excerpts
...(Higgins and Green, 2011)....
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TL;DR: This international, web-based consensus provides clear definitions to classify acute pancreatitis using easily identified clinical and radiologic criteria and should encourage widespread adoption.
Abstract: Background and objective The Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis enabled standardised reporting of research and aided communication between clinicians. Deficiencies identified and improved understanding of the disease make a revision necessary. Methods A web-based consultation was undertaken in 2007 to ensure wide participation of pancreatologists. After an initial meeting, the Working Group sent a draft document to 11 national and international pancreatic associations. This working draft was forwarded to all members. Revisions were made in response to comments, and the web-based consultation was repeated three times. The final consensus was reviewed, and only statements based on published evidence were retained. Results The revised classification of acute pancreatitis identified two phases of the disease: early and late. Severity is classified as mild, moderate or severe. Mild acute pancreatitis, the most common form, has no organ failure, local or systemic complications and usually resolves in the first week. Moderately severe acute pancreatitis is defined by the presence of transient organ failure, local complications or exacerbation of co-morbid disease. Severe acute pancreatitis is defined by persistent organ failure, that is, organ failure >48 h. Local complications are peripancreatic fluid collections, pancreatic and peripancreatic necrosis (sterile or infected), pseudocyst and walled-off necrosis (sterile or infected). We present a standardised template for reporting CT images. Conclusions This international, web-based consensus provides clear definitions to classify acute pancreatitis using easily identified clinical and radiologic criteria. The wide consultation among pancreatologists to reach this consensus should encourage widespread adoption.
3,415 citations
"Computed Tomography Severity Index ..." refers background in this paper
...Based on the revised Atlanta classification, the severity of AP may be mild, moderate, or severe (Banks et al., 2013)....
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TL;DR: A CT severity index, based on a combination of peripancreatic inflammation, phlegmon, and degree of pancreatic necrosis as seen at initial CT study, was developed and showed clear trends in patients who initially had or developed more than 30% necrosis.
Abstract: The presence and degree of pancreatic necrosis (30%, 50%, or greater than 50%) was evaluated by means of bolus injection of contrast material and dynamic sequential computed tomography (CT) in 88 patients with acute pancreatitis at initial and follow-up examinations. Pancreatic necrosis was defined as lack of enhancement of all or a portion of the gland. Length of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality in patients with early or late necrosis (22 patients) were evaluated and compared with the same criteria in the rest of the group. Patients with necrosis had a 23% mortality and an 82% complication rate; patients without necrosis had 0% mortality and 6% morbidity. When only the initial assessment was considered, patients with peripancreatic phlegmons and necrosis had 80% morbidity, compared with 36% morbidity in those with phlegmons and no necrosis. Serious complications occurred in patients who initially had or developed more than 30% necrosis. A CT severity index, based on a combination of peripancreatic inflammation, phlegmon, and degree of pancreatic necrosis as seen at initial CT study, was developed. Patients with a high CT severity index had 92% morbidity and 17% mortality; patients with a low CT severity index had 2% morbidity, and none died.
1,463 citations
"Computed Tomography Severity Index ..." refers background in this paper
...In the early ‘90s, Balthazar and his coworkers developed a numerical scoring system, the CT severity index (CTSI), for the estimation of the severity of AP (Balthazar et al., 1990)....
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