Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: a new approach
TL;DR: In this article, an exponential ARCH model is proposed to study volatility changes and the risk premium on the CRSP Value-Weighted Market Index from 1962 to 1987, which is an improvement over the widely-used GARCH model.
Abstract: This paper introduces an ARCH model (exponential ARCH) that (1) allows correlation between returns and volatility innovations (an important feature of stock market volatility changes), (2) eliminates the need for inequality constraints on parameters, and (3) allows for a straightforward interpretation of the "persistence" of shocks to volatility. In the above respects, it is an improvement over the widely-used GARCH model. The model is applied to study volatility changes and the risk premium on the CRSP Value-Weighted Market Index from 1962 to 1987. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.
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TL;DR: In this article, a modified GARCH-M model was used to find a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using seasonal patterns in volatility and nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance.
Abstract: We find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using a GARCH-M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH-M model, we also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility. THE TRADEOFF BETWEEN RISK and return has long been an important topic in asset valuation research. Most of this research has examined the tradeoff between risk and return among different securities within a given time period. The intertemporal relation between risk and return has been examined by several authors-Fama and Schwert (1977), French, Schwert, and Stambaugh (1987), Harvey (1989), Campbell and Hentschel (1992), Nelson (1991), and Chan, Karolyi, and Stulz (1992), to name a few. This paper extends that research.
7,837 citations
TL;DR: An overview of some of the developments in the formulation of ARCH models and a survey of the numerous empirical applications using financial data can be found in this paper, where several suggestions for future research, including the implementation and tests of competing asset pricing theories, market microstructure models, information transmission mechanisms, dynamic hedging strategies, and pricing of derivative assets, are also discussed.
4,206 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, a consumption-based model is proposed to explain a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-term horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variations of stock market volatility.
Abstract: We present a consumption†based model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long†horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. The model captures much of the history of stock prices from consumption data. It explains the short†and long†run equity premium puzzles despite a low and constant risk†free rate. The results are essentially the same whether we model stocks as a claim to the consumption stream or as a claim to volatile dividends poorly corelated with consumption. The model is driven by an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and adds a slow †moving external habit to the standard power utility function. These features generate slow countercyclical variation in risk premia. The model posits a fundamentally novel description of risk premia. Investors fear stocks primarily because they do poorly in recessions unrelated to the risks of long†run average consumption growth.
3,886 citations
TL;DR: This paper presented a consumption-based model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variations of stock market volatility.
Abstract: We present a consumption-based model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility The model captures much of the history of stock prices from consumption data It explains the short- and long-run equity premium puzzles despite a low and constant risk-free rate The results are essentially the same whether we model stocks as a claim to the consumption stream or as a claim to volatile dividends poorly correlated with consumption The model is driven by an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and adds a slow-moving external habit to the standard power utility function These features generate slow countercyclical variation in risk premia The model posits a fundamentally novel description of risk premia: Investors fear stocks primarily because they do poorly in recessions unrelated to the risks of long-run average consumption growth
3,623 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator and related test statistics in dynamic models that jointly parameterize conditional means and conditional covariances, when a normal log-likelihood is maximized but the assumption of normality is violated.
Abstract: We study the properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and related test statistics in dynamic models that jointly parameterize conditional means and conditional covariances, when a normal log-likelihood os maximized but the assumption of normality is violated. Because the score of the normal log-likelihood has the martingale difference property when the forst two conditional moments are correctly specified, the QMLE is generally Consistent and has a limiting normal destribution. We provide easily computable formulas for asymptotic standard errors that are valid under nonnormality. Further, we show how robust LM tests for the adequacy of the jointly parameterized mean and variance can be computed from simple auxiliary regressions. An appealing feature of these robyst inference procedures is that only first derivatives of the conditional mean and variance functions are needed. A monte Carlo study indicates that the asymptotic results carry over to finite samples. Estimation of several AR a...
3,512 citations
Cites result from "Conditional heteroskedasticity in a..."
...For example, the ergodic models of Nelson (1990b) can readily be handled, provided enough moments are finite to apply the law of large numbers and central limit theorem....
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...In accordance with previous empirical findings by Chou (1988), Nelson (1990b), Pagan and Schwert (1990), and many others, the parameter estimates in (5.1) suggest a high degree of persistence in the conditional variance....
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...Theorem 2.1 also potentially applies to integrated GARCH models, as Nelson (1990a) has shown that the processes generated by these models are effectively stationary and ergodic....
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References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.
38,681 citations
01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.
36,760 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1943TL;DR: Combinations involving trigonometric and hyperbolic functions and power 5 Indefinite Integrals of Special Functions 6 Definite Integral Integral Functions 7.Associated Legendre Functions 8 Special Functions 9 Hypergeometric Functions 10 Vector Field Theory 11 Algebraic Inequalities 12 Integral Inequality 13 Matrices and related results 14 Determinants 15 Norms 16 Ordinary differential equations 17 Fourier, Laplace, and Mellin Transforms 18 The z-transform
Abstract: 0 Introduction 1 Elementary Functions 2 Indefinite Integrals of Elementary Functions 3 Definite Integrals of Elementary Functions 4.Combinations involving trigonometric and hyperbolic functions and power 5 Indefinite Integrals of Special Functions 6 Definite Integrals of Special Functions 7.Associated Legendre Functions 8 Special Functions 9 Hypergeometric Functions 10 Vector Field Theory 11 Algebraic Inequalities 12 Integral Inequalities 13 Matrices and related results 14 Determinants 15 Norms 16 Ordinary differential equations 17 Fourier, Laplace, and Mellin Transforms 18 The z-transform
27,354 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a new class of stochastic processes called autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes are introduced, which are mean zero, serially uncorrelated processes with nonconstant variances conditional on the past, but constant unconditional variances.
Abstract: Traditional econometric models assume a constant one-period forecast variance. To generalize this implausible assumption, a new class of stochastic processes called autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes are introduced in this paper. These are mean zero, serially uncorrelated processes with nonconstant variances conditional on the past, but constant unconditional variances. For such processes, the recent past gives information about the one-period forecast variance. A regression model is then introduced with disturbances following an ARCH process. Maximum likelihood estimators are described and a simple scoring iteration formulated. Ordinary least squares maintains its optimality properties in this set-up, but maximum likelihood is more efficient. The relative efficiency is calculated and can be infinite. To test whether the disturbances follow an ARCH process, the Lagrange multiplier procedure is employed. The test is based simply on the autocorrelation of the squared OLS residuals. This model is used to estimate the means and variances of inflation in the U.K. The ARCH effect is found to be significant and the estimated variances increase substantially during the chaotic seventies.
20,728 citations
Proceedings Article•
01 Jan 1973
TL;DR: The classical maximum likelihood principle can be considered to be a method of asymptotic realization of an optimum estimate with respect to a very general information theoretic criterion to provide answers to many practical problems of statistical model fitting.
Abstract: In this paper it is shown that the classical maximum likelihood principle can be considered to be a method of asymptotic realization of an optimum estimate with respect to a very general information theoretic criterion. This observation shows an extension of the principle to provide answers to many practical problems of statistical model fitting.
18,539 citations