Journal Article•
Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing for high-dimensional regression
TL;DR: In this paper, a de-biased version of regularized M-estimators is proposed to construct confidence intervals and p-values for high-dimensional linear regression models, and the resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size.
Abstract: Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the parameter estimates. This in turn implies that it is extremely challenging to quantify the uncertainty associated with a certain parameter estimate. Concretely, no commonly accepted procedure exists for computing classical measures of uncertainty and statistical significance as confidence intervals or p- values for these models.
We consider here high-dimensional linear regression problem, and propose an efficient algorithm for constructing confidence intervals and p-values. The resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size. When testing for the null hypothesis that a certain parameter is vanishing, our method has nearly optimal power.
Our approach is based on constructing a 'de-biased' version of regularized M-estimators. The new construction improves over recent work in the field in that it does not assume a special structure on the design matrix. We test our method on synthetic data and a high-throughput genomic data set about riboflavin production rate, made publicly available by Buhlmann et al. (2014).
Citations
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07 May 2015
TL;DR: Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations presents methods that exploit sparsity to help recover the underlying signal in a set of data and extract useful and reproducible patterns from big datasets.
Abstract: Discover New Methods for Dealing with High-Dimensional Data A sparse statistical model has only a small number of nonzero parameters or weights; therefore, it is much easier to estimate and interpret than a dense model. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations presents methods that exploit sparsity to help recover the underlying signal in a set of data. Top experts in this rapidly evolving field, the authors describe the lasso for linear regression and a simple coordinate descent algorithm for its computation. They discuss the application of 1 penalties to generalized linear models and support vector machines, cover generalized penalties such as the elastic net and group lasso, and review numerical methods for optimization. They also present statistical inference methods for fitted (lasso) models, including the bootstrap, Bayesian methods, and recently developed approaches. In addition, the book examines matrix decomposition, sparse multivariate analysis, graphical models, and compressed sensing. It concludes with a survey of theoretical results for the lasso. In this age of big data, the number of features measured on a person or object can be large and might be larger than the number of observations. This book shows how the sparsity assumption allows us to tackle these problems and extract useful and reproducible patterns from big datasets. Data analysts, computer scientists, and theorists will appreciate this thorough and up-to-date treatment of sparse statistical modeling.
2,275 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the impact of regularization bias and overfitting on estimation of the parameter of interest θ0 can be removed by using two simple, yet critical, ingredients: (1) using Neyman-orthogonal moments/scores that have reduced sensitivity with respect to nuisance parameters, and (2) making use of cross-fitting, which provides an efficient form of data-splitting.
Abstract: Summary
We revisit the classic semi-parametric problem of inference on a low-dimensional parameter θ0 in the presence of high-dimensional nuisance parameters η0. We depart from the classical setting by allowing for η0 to be so high-dimensional that the traditional assumptions (e.g. Donsker properties) that limit complexity of the parameter space for this object break down. To estimate η0, we consider the use of statistical or machine learning (ML) methods, which are particularly well suited to estimation in modern, very high-dimensional cases. ML methods perform well by employing regularization to reduce variance and trading off regularization bias with overfitting in practice. However, both regularization bias and overfitting in estimating η0 cause a heavy bias in estimators of θ0 that are obtained by naively plugging ML estimators of η0 into estimating equations for θ0. This bias results in the naive estimator failing to be N−1/2 consistent, where N is the sample size. We show that the impact of regularization bias and overfitting on estimation of the parameter of interest θ0 can be removed by using two simple, yet critical, ingredients: (1) using Neyman-orthogonal moments/scores that have reduced sensitivity with respect to nuisance parameters to estimate θ0; (2) making use of cross-fitting, which provides an efficient form of data-splitting. We call the resulting set of methods double or debiased ML (DML). We verify that DML delivers point estimators that concentrate in an N−1/2-neighbourhood of the true parameter values and are approximately unbiased and normally distributed, which allows construction of valid confidence statements. The generic statistical theory of DML is elementary and simultaneously relies on only weak theoretical requirements, which will admit the use of a broad array of modern ML methods for estimating the nuisance parameters, such as random forests, lasso, ridge, deep neural nets, boosted trees, and various hybrids and ensembles of these methods. We illustrate the general theory by applying it to provide theoretical properties of the following: DML applied to learn the main regression parameter in a partially linear regression model; DML applied to learn the coefficient on an endogenous variable in a partially linear instrumental variables model; DML applied to learn the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect on the treated under unconfoundedness; DML applied to learn the local average treatment effect in an instrumental variables setting. In addition to these theoretical applications, we also illustrate the use of DML in three empirical examples.
1,204 citations
TL;DR: A general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model and develops the corresponding theory which includes a careful analysis for Gaussian, sub-Gaussian and bounded correlated designs.
Abstract: We propose a general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model. It can be easily adjusted for multiplicity taking dependence among tests into account. For linear models, our method is essentially the same as in Zhang and Zhang [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 76 (2014) 217-242]: we analyze its asymptotic properties and establish its asymptotic optimality in terms of semiparametric efficiency. Our method naturally extends to generalized linear models with convex loss functions. We develop the corresponding theory which includes a careful analysis for Gaussian, sub-Gaussian and bounded correlated designs.
745 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model is proposed, which can be easily adjusted for multiplicity taking dependence among tests into account.
Abstract: We propose a general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model. It can be easily adjusted for multiplicity taking dependence among tests into account. For linear models, our method is essentially the same as in Zhang and Zhang [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 76 (2014) 217–242]: we analyze its asymptotic properties and establish its asymptotic optimality in terms of semiparametric efficiency. Our method naturally extends to generalized linear models with convex loss functions. We develop the corresponding theory which includes a careful analysis for Gaussian, sub-Gaussian and bounded correlated designs.
619 citations
TL;DR: A general approach to valid inference after model selection by the lasso is developed to form valid confidence intervals for the selected coefficients and test whether all relevant variables have been included in the model.
Abstract: We develop a general approach to valid inference after model selection. At the core of our framework is a result that characterizes the distribution of a post-selection estimator conditioned on the selection event. We specialize the approach to model selection by the lasso to form valid confidence intervals for the selected coefficients and test whether all relevant variables have been included in the model.
616 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, a different approach to problems of multiple significance testing is presented, which calls for controlling the expected proportion of falsely rejected hypotheses -the false discovery rate, which is equivalent to the FWER when all hypotheses are true but is smaller otherwise.
Abstract: SUMMARY The common approach to the multiplicity problem calls for controlling the familywise error rate (FWER). This approach, though, has faults, and we point out a few. A different approach to problems of multiple significance testing is presented. It calls for controlling the expected proportion of falsely rejected hypotheses -the false discovery rate. This error rate is equivalent to the FWER when all hypotheses are true but is smaller otherwise. Therefore, in problems where the control of the false discovery rate rather than that of the FWER is desired, there is potential for a gain in power. A simple sequential Bonferronitype procedure is proved to control the false discovery rate for independent test statistics, and a simulation study shows that the gain in power is substantial. The use of the new procedure and the appropriateness of the criterion are illustrated with examples.
83,420 citations
TL;DR: A new method for estimation in linear models called the lasso, which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients being less than a constant, is proposed.
Abstract: SUMMARY We propose a new method for estimation in linear models. The 'lasso' minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients being less than a constant. Because of the nature of this constraint it tends to produce some coefficients that are exactly 0 and hence gives interpretable models. Our simulation studies suggest that the lasso enjoys some of the favourable properties of both subset selection and ridge regression. It produces interpretable models like subset selection and exhibits the stability of ridge regression. There is also an interesting relationship with recent work in adaptive function estimation by Donoho and Johnstone. The lasso idea is quite general and can be applied in a variety of statistical models: extensions to generalized regression models and tree-based models are briefly described.
40,785 citations
TL;DR: In comparative timings, the new algorithms are considerably faster than competing methods and can handle large problems and can also deal efficiently with sparse features.
Abstract: We develop fast algorithms for estimation of generalized linear models with convex penalties. The models include linear regression, two-class logistic regression, and multinomial regression problems while the penalties include l(1) (the lasso), l(2) (ridge regression) and mixtures of the two (the elastic net). The algorithms use cyclical coordinate descent, computed along a regularization path. The methods can handle large problems and can also deal efficiently with sparse features. In comparative timings we find that the new algorithms are considerably faster than competing methods.
13,656 citations
TL;DR: As the Netflix Prize competition has demonstrated, matrix factorization models are superior to classic nearest neighbor techniques for producing product recommendations, allowing the incorporation of additional information such as implicit feedback, temporal effects, and confidence levels.
Abstract: As the Netflix Prize competition has demonstrated, matrix factorization models are superior to classic nearest neighbor techniques for producing product recommendations, allowing the incorporation of additional information such as implicit feedback, temporal effects, and confidence levels
9,583 citations
TL;DR: The authors introduce an algorithm, called matching pursuit, that decomposes any signal into a linear expansion of waveforms that are selected from a redundant dictionary of functions, chosen in order to best match the signal structures.
Abstract: The authors introduce an algorithm, called matching pursuit, that decomposes any signal into a linear expansion of waveforms that are selected from a redundant dictionary of functions. These waveforms are chosen in order to best match the signal structures. Matching pursuits are general procedures to compute adaptive signal representations. With a dictionary of Gabor functions a matching pursuit defines an adaptive time-frequency transform. They derive a signal energy distribution in the time-frequency plane, which does not include interference terms, unlike Wigner and Cohen class distributions. A matching pursuit isolates the signal structures that are coherent with respect to a given dictionary. An application to pattern extraction from noisy signals is described. They compare a matching pursuit decomposition with a signal expansion over an optimized wavepacket orthonormal basis, selected with the algorithm of Coifman and Wickerhauser see (IEEE Trans. Informat. Theory, vol. 38, Mar. 1992). >
9,380 citations