Dissertation•
Constructing a scenario planning method as a tool for political risk mitigation: The case of Exxon Mobil’s Operations in the South China Sea
01 Dec 2017-
About: The article was published on 2017-12-01 and is currently open access. It has received 5 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Scenario planning & Political risk.
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Journal Article•
360 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: The the art of the long view is universally compatible with any devices to read and is available in the book collection an online access to it is set as public so you can get it instantly.
Abstract: Thank you for downloading the art of the long view. Maybe you have knowledge that, people have look numerous times for their favorite readings like this the art of the long view, but end up in malicious downloads. Rather than reading a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon, instead they are facing with some harmful virus inside their computer. the art of the long view is available in our book collection an online access to it is set as public so you can get it instantly. Our books collection hosts in multiple countries, allowing you to get the most less latency time to download any of our books like this one. Kindly say, the the art of the long view is universally compatible with any devices to read.
161 citations
137 citations
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8 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develop an alternative model, called prospect theory, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.
Abstract: This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low prob- abilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling. EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY has dominated the analysis of decision making under risk. It has been generally accepted as a normative model of rational choice (24), and widely applied as a descriptive model of economic behavior, e.g. (15, 4). Thus, it is assumed that all reasonable people would wish to obey the axioms of the theory (47, 36), and that most people actually do, most of the time. The present paper describes several classes of choice problems in which preferences systematically violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In the light of these observations we argue that utility theory, as it is commonly interpreted and applied, is not an adequate descriptive model and we propose an alternative account of choice under risk. 2. CRITIQUE
35,067 citations
Book•
10 Apr 2017
TL;DR: Poth mengeksplorasi dasar filosofis, sejarah, and elemen kunci dari lima pendekatan penelitian kualitatif as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Dalam edisi revisi keempat dari buku terlaris, John W. Creswell dan rekan penulis baru Cheryl N.Poth mengeksplorasi dasar filosofis, sejarah, dan elemen kunci dari lima pendekatan penelitian kualitatif: penelitian naratif, fenomenologi, teori dasar, etnografi, dan studi kasus. Mempertahankan gaya penulisannya, penulis membandingkan pendekatan dan menghubungkan desain penelitian dengan masing-masing tradisi penyelidikan dengan cara yang sangat mudah diakses. Menampilkan konten baru, artikel, pedagogi, referensi, dan cakupan etika yang diperluas. Edisi Keempat adalah pengantar yang ideal untuk teori, strategi, dan praktik penelitian kualitatif.
17,770 citations
01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: The contention among various research paradigms for legitimacy and intellectual and p;uadigmatic hegemony was discussed in the first edition of the Handbook of Qualitative Research by Guba and Lincoln as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: n our chapter for the first edition of the Handbook of Qualitative Research, we focused on the contention among various research paradigms for legitimacy and intellectual and p;uadigmatic hegemony (Guba & Lincoln, 1994). The postmodern paradigms that we discussed (postmodernist critical theory and constructivism) 1 were in contention with the received positivist and postpositivist paradigms for legitimacy, and with one another for intellectual legitimacy. In the half dozen years that have elapsed since that chapter was published, substantial change has occurred in the landscape of social scientific inquiry. On the matter of legitimacy, we observe that readers familiar with the literature on methods and paradigms reflect a high interest in ontologies and epistemologies that differ sharply from those undergirding conventional social science. Second, even those est::~blished professionals trained in quantitative social science (including the two of us) want to learn more about qualitative approaches, because new young professionals being mentored in graduate schools are asking serious questions about and looking for guidance in qualitatively oriented studies and dissertations. Third, the number of qualitative texts, research papers, workshops, and training materials has exploded. Indeed, it would be difficult to miss the distinct turn of the social sciences tow::~rd more interpretive, postmodern, and criticalist practices and theorizing (Bloland, 1989, 1995). This nonpositivist orientation has created a context (surround) in which virtually no study can go unchallenged by proponents of contending paradigms. Further, it
9,521 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1975
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of the concept of culture on the concepts of man and the evolution of mind in Bali has been discussed in the context of an interpretive theory of culture.
Abstract: Part I * Thick Description: Toward an Interpretive Theory of Culture Part II * The Impact of the Concept of Culture on the Concept of Man * The Growth of Culture and the Evolution of Mind Part III * Religion As a Cultural System * Ethos, World View, and the Analysis of Sacred Symbols * Ritual and Social Change: A Javanese Example * Internal Conversion in Contemporary Bali Part IV * Ideology As a Cultural System * After the Revolution: The Fate of Nationalism in the New States * The Integrative Revolution: Primordial Sentiments and Civil Politics in the New States * The Politics of Meaning * Politics Past, Politics Present: Some Notes on the Uses of Anthropology in Understanding the New States PART V * The Cerebral Savage: On the Work of Claude Lvi-Strauss * Person, Time, and Conduct in Bali * Deep Play: Notes on the Balinese Cockfight
9,103 citations
"Constructing a scenario planning me..." refers methods in this paper
...Single case studies provide what Geertz (1973) would call a “thick description” (Geertz, 1973: 6-7), or a detailed empirical account, into how scenario planning can be used as a tool for risk mitigation, using Exxon Mobil’s operations in the SCS as the single case study....
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...Single case studies provide what Geertz (1973) would call a “thick description” (Geertz, 1973: 6-7), or a detailed empirical account, into how scenario planning can be used as a tool for risk mitigation, using Exxon Mobil’s operations in the SCS as the single case study. A single case study research design is deemed most appropriate for this study as the design “is useful when detailed knowledge is required of any particular case” (Hofstee, 2006: 123). Accordingly, scenarios for the SCS can only be developed by acquiring such detailed knowledge. Walton (1992) argued that case studies are also effective in questioning established boundaries and thus enable new or alternative ways of thinking (Walton, 1992: 129), which this study endeavours to do....
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Book•
27 Apr 2006
TL;DR: This chapter discusses social research methods, research strategies and design, and how to get the most out of Lectures and revision skills.
Abstract: PART ONE: SOCIAL RESEARCH METHODS Introduction to Your Companion PART TWO: CORE AREAS OF THE CURRICULUM Theoretical Background Research Basics Research Strategies and Design The Nature of Data Defining the Research Problem Sampling Data Collection Methods Experimental Design Quantitative Data Analysis Qualitative Data Analysis Ethics PART THREE: STUDY AND REVISION SKILLS How To Get the Most Out of Your Lectures - (written in collaboration with David McIlroy) How To Make the Most of Seminars Revision Hints and Tips Exam Tips Tips on Interpreting Essay and Exam Questions Essay Writing Writing a Literature Review Writing a Research Proposal Writing Up a Dissertation or Research Project
6,824 citations
"Constructing a scenario planning me..." refers background in this paper
...Neuman described qualitative data as being “expressed in words”, while quantitative data are “expressed in numbers” (Neuman, 1997: 7)....
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...Furthermore, explanatory research seeks to “link different issues or 14 topics under a common general statement” (Neuman, 1997: 21)....
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...…with considerable bodies of literature written on them, using scenario planning as a tool for political risk mitigation represents an attempt to “develop techniques and a sense of direction for future research”, which Neuman argued is an important element of exploratory research (Neuman, 1997: 20)....
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...Explanatory research seeks to “advance knowledge about an underlying process” (Neuman, 1997: 21), such as determining how understanding a corporation’s environment and how it may develop through scenario planning can inform it on the political risks that it may experience and how to mitigate them....
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