Posted Content•
Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting
TL;DR: This paper proposes the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and uses it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem and shows that it captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-L STM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm.
Abstract: The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting.
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Posted Content•
TL;DR: A systematic evaluation of generic convolutional and recurrent architectures for sequence modeling concludes that the common association between sequence modeling and recurrent networks should be reconsidered, and convolutionals should be regarded as a natural starting point for sequence modeled tasks.
Abstract: For most deep learning practitioners, sequence modeling is synonymous with recurrent networks. Yet recent results indicate that convolutional architectures can outperform recurrent networks on tasks such as audio synthesis and machine translation. Given a new sequence modeling task or dataset, which architecture should one use? We conduct a systematic evaluation of generic convolutional and recurrent architectures for sequence modeling. The models are evaluated across a broad range of standard tasks that are commonly used to benchmark recurrent networks. Our results indicate that a simple convolutional architecture outperforms canonical recurrent networks such as LSTMs across a diverse range of tasks and datasets, while demonstrating longer effective memory. We conclude that the common association between sequence modeling and recurrent networks should be reconsidered, and convolutional networks should be regarded as a natural starting point for sequence modeling tasks. To assist related work, we have made code available at this http URL .
2,776 citations
Cites methods from "Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machi..."
...This includes the Convolutional LSTM (Shi et al., 2015), which replaces the fully-connected layers in an LSTM with convolutional layers to allow for additional structure in the recurrent layers; the Quasi-RNN model (Bradbury et al., 2017) that interleaves convolutional layers with simple recurrent layers; and the dilated RNN (Chang et al., 2017), which adds dilations to recurrent architectures....
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...This includes the Convolutional LSTM (Shi et al., 2015), which replaces the fully-connected layers in an LSTM with convolutional layers to allow for additional structure in the recurrent layers; the Quasi-RNN model (Bradbury et al., 2017) that interleaves convolutional layers with simple recurrent…...
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...This includes the Convolutional LSTM (Shi et al., 2015), which replaces the fully-connected layers in an LSTM with convolutional layers to allow for additional structure in the recurrent layers; the Quasi-RNN model (Bradbury et al....
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13 Jul 2018
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a novel deep learning framework, Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN), to tackle the time series prediction problem in traffic domain.
Abstract: Timely accurate traffic forecast is crucial for urban traffic control and guidance. Due to the high nonlinearity and complexity of traffic flow, traditional methods cannot satisfy the requirements of mid-and-long term prediction tasks and often neglect spatial and temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN), to tackle the time series prediction problem in traffic domain. Instead of applying regular convolutional and recurrent units, we formulate the problem on graphs and build the model with complete convolutional structures, which enable much faster training speed with fewer parameters. Experiments show that our model STGCN effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling multi-scale traffic networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on various real-world traffic datasets.
2,103 citations
TL;DR: It is argued that contextual cues should be used as part of deep learning to gain further process understanding of Earth system science problems, improving the predictive ability of seasonal forecasting and modelling of long-range spatial connections across multiple timescales.
Abstract: Machine learning approaches are increasingly used to extract patterns and insights from the ever-increasing stream of geospatial data, but current approaches may not be optimal when system behaviour is dominated by spatial or temporal context. Here, rather than amending classical machine learning, we argue that these contextual cues should be used as part of deep learning (an approach that is able to extract spatio-temporal features automatically) to gain further process understanding of Earth system science problems, improving the predictive ability of seasonal forecasting and modelling of long-range spatial connections across multiple timescales, for example. The next step will be a hybrid modelling approach, coupling physical process models with the versatility of data-driven machine learning.
2,014 citations
Proceedings Article•
27 Nov 2016TL;DR: A deep-learning-based approach to collectively forecast the inflow and outflow of crowds in each and every region of a city, using the residual neural network framework to model the temporal closeness, period, and trend properties of crowd traffic.
Abstract: Forecasting the flow of crowds is of great importance to traffic management and public safety, and very challenging as it is affected by many complex factors, such as inter-region traffic, events, and weather. We propose a deep-learning-based approach, called ST-ResNet, to collectively forecast the inflow and outflow of crowds in each and every region of a city. We design an end-to-end structure of ST-ResNet based on unique properties of spatio-temporal data. More specifically, we employ the residual neural network framework to model the temporal closeness, period, and trend properties of crowd traffic. For each property, we design a branch of residual convolutional units, each of which models the spatial properties of crowd traffic. ST-ResNet learns to dynamically aggregate the output of the three residual neural networks based on data, assigning different weights to different branches and regions. The aggregation is further combined with external factors, such as weather and day of the week, to predict the final traffic of crowds in each and every region. Experiments on two types of crowd flows in Beijing and New York City (NYC) demonstrate that the proposed ST-ResNet outperforms six well-known methods.
1,178 citations
Cites background from "Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machi..."
...Recently, researchers combined above networks and proposed a convolutional LSTM network (Xingjian et al. 2015) that learns spatial and temporal dependencies simultaneously....
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TL;DR: This survey presents a brief survey on the advances that have occurred in the area of Deep Learning (DL), starting with the Deep Neural Network and goes on to cover Convolutional Neural Network, Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL).
Abstract: In recent years, deep learning has garnered tremendous success in a variety of application domains. This new field of machine learning has been growing rapidly and has been applied to most traditional application domains, as well as some new areas that present more opportunities. Different methods have been proposed based on different categories of learning, including supervised, semi-supervised, and un-supervised learning. Experimental results show state-of-the-art performance using deep learning when compared to traditional machine learning approaches in the fields of image processing, computer vision, speech recognition, machine translation, art, medical imaging, medical information processing, robotics and control, bioinformatics, natural language processing, cybersecurity, and many others. This survey presents a brief survey on the advances that have occurred in the area of Deep Learning (DL), starting with the Deep Neural Network (DNN). The survey goes on to cover Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Auto-Encoder (AE), Deep Belief Network (DBN), Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). Additionally, we have discussed recent developments, such as advanced variant DL techniques based on these DL approaches. This work considers most of the papers published after 2012 from when the history of deep learning began. Furthermore, DL approaches that have been explored and evaluated in different application domains are also included in this survey. We also included recently developed frameworks, SDKs, and benchmark datasets that are used for implementing and evaluating deep learning approaches. There are some surveys that have been published on DL using neural networks and a survey on Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, those papers have not discussed individual advanced techniques for training large-scale deep learning models and the recently developed method of generative models.
922 citations
References
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TL;DR: A novel, efficient, gradient based method called long short-term memory (LSTM) is introduced, which can learn to bridge minimal time lags in excess of 1000 discrete-time steps by enforcing constant error flow through constant error carousels within special units.
Abstract: Learning to store information over extended time intervals by recurrent backpropagation takes a very long time, mostly because of insufficient, decaying error backflow. We briefly review Hochreiter's (1991) analysis of this problem, then address it by introducing a novel, efficient, gradient based method called long short-term memory (LSTM). Truncating the gradient where this does not do harm, LSTM can learn to bridge minimal time lags in excess of 1000 discrete-time steps by enforcing constant error flow through constant error carousels within special units. Multiplicative gate units learn to open and close access to the constant error flow. LSTM is local in space and time; its computational complexity per time step and weight is O. 1. Our experiments with artificial data involve local, distributed, real-valued, and noisy pattern representations. In comparisons with real-time recurrent learning, back propagation through time, recurrent cascade correlation, Elman nets, and neural sequence chunking, LSTM leads to many more successful runs, and learns much faster. LSTM also solves complex, artificial long-time-lag tasks that have never been solved by previous recurrent network algorithms.
72,897 citations
"Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machi..." refers background or methods in this paper
...Recent advances in deep learning, especially recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models [12, 11, 7, 8, 23, 13, 18, 21, 26], provide some useful insights on how to tackle this problem....
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...One advantage of using the memory cell and gates to control information flow is that the gradient will be trapped in the cell (also known as constant error carousels [12]) and be prevented from vanishing too quickly, which is a critical problem for the vanilla RNN model [12, 17, 2]....
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...For general-purpose sequence modeling, LSTM as a special RNN structure has proven stable and powerful for modeling long-range dependencies in various previous studies [12, 11, 17, 23]....
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Book•
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TL;DR: Deep learning as mentioned in this paper is a form of machine learning that enables computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, and it is used in many applications such as natural language processing, speech recognition, computer vision, online recommendation systems, bioinformatics, and videogames.
Abstract: Deep learning is a form of machine learning that enables computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts. Because the computer gathers knowledge from experience, there is no need for a human computer operator to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts allows the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones; a graph of these hierarchies would be many layers deep. This book introduces a broad range of topics in deep learning. The text offers mathematical and conceptual background, covering relevant concepts in linear algebra, probability theory and information theory, numerical computation, and machine learning. It describes deep learning techniques used by practitioners in industry, including deep feedforward networks, regularization, optimization algorithms, convolutional networks, sequence modeling, and practical methodology; and it surveys such applications as natural language processing, speech recognition, computer vision, online recommendation systems, bioinformatics, and videogames. Finally, the book offers research perspectives, covering such theoretical topics as linear factor models, autoencoders, representation learning, structured probabilistic models, Monte Carlo methods, the partition function, approximate inference, and deep generative models. Deep Learning can be used by undergraduate or graduate students planning careers in either industry or research, and by software engineers who want to begin using deep learning in their products or platforms. A website offers supplementary material for both readers and instructors.
38,208 citations
07 Jun 2015
TL;DR: The key insight is to build “fully convolutional” networks that take input of arbitrary size and produce correspondingly-sized output with efficient inference and learning.
Abstract: Convolutional networks are powerful visual models that yield hierarchies of features. We show that convolutional networks by themselves, trained end-to-end, pixels-to-pixels, exceed the state-of-the-art in semantic segmentation. Our key insight is to build “fully convolutional” networks that take input of arbitrary size and produce correspondingly-sized output with efficient inference and learning. We define and detail the space of fully convolutional networks, explain their application to spatially dense prediction tasks, and draw connections to prior models. We adapt contemporary classification networks (AlexNet [20], the VGG net [31], and GoogLeNet [32]) into fully convolutional networks and transfer their learned representations by fine-tuning [3] to the segmentation task. We then define a skip architecture that combines semantic information from a deep, coarse layer with appearance information from a shallow, fine layer to produce accurate and detailed segmentations. Our fully convolutional network achieves state-of-the-art segmentation of PASCAL VOC (20% relative improvement to 62.2% mean IU on 2012), NYUDv2, and SIFT Flow, while inference takes less than one fifth of a second for a typical image.
28,225 citations
Additional excerpts
...Also, if we adopt a similar view as [16], the inputs, cell outputs and hidden states of the traditional FC-LSTM represented by (2) may also be seen as 3D tensors with the last two dimensions being 1....
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01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: In this paper, the encoder and decoder of the RNN Encoder-Decoder model are jointly trained to maximize the conditional probability of a target sequence given a source sequence.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a novel neural network model called RNN Encoder‐ Decoder that consists of two recurrent neural networks (RNN). One RNN encodes a sequence of symbols into a fixedlength vector representation, and the other decodes the representation into another sequence of symbols. The encoder and decoder of the proposed model are jointly trained to maximize the conditional probability of a target sequence given a source sequence. The performance of a statistical machine translation system is empirically found to improve by using the conditional probabilities of phrase pairs computed by the RNN Encoder‐Decoder as an additional feature in the existing log-linear model. Qualitatively, we show that the proposed model learns a semantically and syntactically meaningful representation of linguistic phrases.
19,998 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This paper presents a general end-to-end approach to sequence learning that makes minimal assumptions on the sequence structure, and finds that reversing the order of the words in all source sentences improved the LSTM's performance markedly, because doing so introduced many short term dependencies between the source and the target sentence which made the optimization problem easier.
Abstract: Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful models that have achieved excellent performance on difficult learning tasks. Although DNNs work well whenever large labeled training sets are available, they cannot be used to map sequences to sequences. In this paper, we present a general end-to-end approach to sequence learning that makes minimal assumptions on the sequence structure. Our method uses a multilayered Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to map the input sequence to a vector of a fixed dimensionality, and then another deep LSTM to decode the target sequence from the vector. Our main result is that on an English to French translation task from the WMT'14 dataset, the translations produced by the LSTM achieve a BLEU score of 34.8 on the entire test set, where the LSTM's BLEU score was penalized on out-of-vocabulary words. Additionally, the LSTM did not have difficulty on long sentences. For comparison, a phrase-based SMT system achieves a BLEU score of 33.3 on the same dataset. When we used the LSTM to rerank the 1000 hypotheses produced by the aforementioned SMT system, its BLEU score increases to 36.5, which is close to the previous best result on this task. The LSTM also learned sensible phrase and sentence representations that are sensitive to word order and are relatively invariant to the active and the passive voice. Finally, we found that reversing the order of the words in all source sentences (but not target sentences) improved the LSTM's performance markedly, because doing so introduced many short term dependencies between the source and the target sentence which made the optimization problem easier.
11,936 citations
"Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machi..." refers background or methods in this paper
...Recent advances in deep learning, especially recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models [12, 11, 7, 8, 23, 13, 18, 21, 26], provide some useful insights on how to tackle this problem....
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...The pioneering LSTM encoder-decoder framework proposed in [23] provides a general framework for sequence-to-sequence learning problems by training temporally concatenated LSTMs, one for the input sequence and another for the output sequence....
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...We formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem that can be solved under the general sequence-to-sequence learning framework proposed in [23]....
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...We can interpret this structure using a similar viewpoint as [23]....
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...Such models have been applied to solve many real-life sequence modeling problems [23, 26]....
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