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Journal ArticleDOI

Cooperative filling approaches for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

TL;DR: In this article, a river basin planning model with a wide range of historical hydrological conditions and increasing coordination between the co-riparian countries was used to analyze the implications of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its implications for downstream water resources.
Abstract: Strategies for filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and implications for downstream water resources are analyzed using a river basin planning model with a wide range of historical hydrological conditions and increasing coordination between the co-riparian countries. The analysis finds that risks to water diversions in Sudan can be largely managed through adaptations of Sudanese reservoir operations. The risks to Egyptian users and energy generation can be minimized through combinations of sufficient agreed annual releases from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a drought management policy for the High Aswan Dam, and a basin-wide cooperative agreement that protects the elevation of Lake Nasser.
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This analysis illustrates how during filling the HAD reservoir could fall to levels not seen in recent decades, although the risk of water shortage in Egypt is relatively low, and a new normal period after the reservoir fills; and a severe multi-year drought after the filling.
Abstract: When construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is completed, the Nile will have two of the world’s largest dams—the High Aswan Dam (HAD) and the GERD—in two different countries (Egypt and Ethiopia). There is not yet agreement on how these dams will operate to manage scarce water resources. We elucidate the potential risks and opportunities to Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia by simulating the filling period of the reservoir; a new normal period after the reservoir fills; and a severe multi-year drought after the filling. Our analysis illustrates how during filling the HAD reservoir could fall to levels not seen in recent decades, although the risk of water shortage in Egypt is relatively low. The new normal will benefit Ethiopia and Sudan without significantly affecting water users in Egypt. Management of multi-year droughts will require careful coordination if risks of harmful impacts are to be minimized. Several dams and reservoirs exist along the Nile, most notably the HAD (Egypt) and GERD (Ethiopia) dams. Due to the lack of strategies, the authors here explore potential risks and solutions how to use both dams simultaneously.

77 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results show that theEconomic gain of the Blue Nile Basin from WEF increases with raising the cooperation level between Ethiopia and Sudan to collaboration, however, the economic gain of each riparian country does not necessarily follow the same pattern as the economic loss of the basin.

75 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the development and application of the sustainable development goals impact assessment framework for energy projects (SDGs-IAE) for qualitative assessment of SDG target synergies and trade-offs within the context of a given energy project.
Abstract: Energy projects in pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal 7, which addresses affordable and clean energy, can have numerous synergies and trade-offs with all other SDGs and their targets. However, the identification of such interlinkages is both complicated and scattered in literature. To overcome this gap, this research presents the development and application of the Sustainable Development Goals Impact Assessment Framework for Energy Projects (SDGs-IAE) for qualitative assessment of SDG target synergies and trade-offs within the context of a given energy project. Two diverse case studies ‒ the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station (HPC) ‒ are utilized to test the framework. Each case study highlights important SDG target interactions drawn out by this process. The GERD analysis shows the many synergies that result from energy access expansion while also bringing up trade-offs related to transboundary water rights and community relocation. In the case of the HPC, long-term ecosystem impacts of uranium mining and trade-offs related to future climate resilience and energy affordability are identified. The final resulting framework and corresponding excel-based tool can inform a dialog among stakeholders about the key areas of improvement related to the project´s social, environmental and economic sustainability.

56 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The method demonstrates how improvements to water security for both downstream riparians can be achieved through dynamic adaptation of the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam during drought conditions and the robustness of potential management arrangements can be evaluated considering potential effects of climate change.
Abstract: A water resource modeling process is demonstrated to support multistakeholder negotiations over transboundary management of the Nile River. This process addresses the challenge of identifying management options of new hydraulic infrastructure that potentially affects downstream coriparian nations and how the management of existing infrastructure can be adapted. The method includes an exploration of potential management decisions using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, intertwined with an iterative process of formulating cooperative strategies to overcome technical and political barriers faced in a transboundary negotiation. The case study is the addition of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and considers how its operation may be coordinated with adaptations to the operations of Egypt's High Aswan Dam. The results demonstrate that a lack of coordination is likely to be harmful to downstream riparians and suggest that adaptations to infrastructure in Sudan and Egypt can reduce risks to water supplies and energy generation. Although risks can be substantially reduced by agreed releases from the GERD and basic adaptations to the High Aswan Dam, these measures are still insufficient to assure that no additional risk is assumed by Egypt. The method then demonstrates how improvements to water security for both downstream riparians can be achieved through dynamic adaptation of the operation of the GERD during drought conditions. Finally, the paper demonstrates how the robustness of potential management arrangements can be evaluated considering potential effects of climate change, including increased interannual variability and highly uncertain changes such as increases in the future persistence of droughts.

50 citations


Cites background or methods from "Cooperative filling approaches for ..."

  • ...Finally, Wheeler et al. (2016) introduce the Eastern Nile RiverWare Model (ENRM) to evaluate potential GERD filling policies that reference pool elevations of the HAD....

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  • ...We direct the reader to previous studies that explicitly focus on filling the GERD (King & Block, 2014; Wheeler et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2015), which is likely to be negotiated in a different time frame compared to possible resolutions over these long-term coordination decisions....

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  • ...The ENRM simulation model was configured to study long-term management strategies after the GERD has completed the filling process....

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  • ...The reader is directed to Wheeler et al. (2016) for the detailed operations assumptions used in the ENRM....

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  • ...Applying the ENRM with the MOEA, cooperation arrangements are explored by iteratively sampling combinations of management decisions outlined in Table 3 and evaluating the performance of the objectives outlined in Table 2....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a modelling study is performed to evaluate interannual and decadal-scale streamflow variability into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir and comparison of various filling strategies for hydropower and downstream releases to Sudan and Egypt from this dam.
Abstract: A modelling study is performed to evaluate interannual and decadal-scale streamflow variability into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir and comparison of various filling strategies for hydropower and downstream releases to Sudan and Egypt from this dam. To capture these aspects, simulations of probabilistic streamflow via wavelet analysis are produced to define the propensity towards wetter or drier conditions for absolute, threshold and percentage-based filling strategies. Absolute filling strategies have lower uncertainty than percentage-based strategies, benefiting upstream planning; however, downstream releases may be near zero on occasion. Consensus among the riparian countries prior to initiation of filling is strongly encouraged.

45 citations


Cites background from "Cooperative filling approaches for ..."

  • ...Adaptive operational strategies in Sudan and Egypt in coordination with the GERD release strategies may improve in-country water management; however, this coordinated operation is not explicitly addressed in this article; the reader is referred to Wheeler et al. (2016) for details....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present guidelines for watershed model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations, including single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude.
Abstract: Watershed models are powerful tools for simulating the effect of watershed processes and management on soil and water resources. However, no comprehensive guidance is available to facilitate model evaluation in terms of the accuracy of simulated data compared to measured flow and constituent values. Thus, the objectives of this research were to: (1) determine recommended model evaluation techniques (statistical and graphical), (2) review reported ranges of values and corresponding performance ratings for the recommended statistics, and (3) establish guidelines for model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations; all of these objectives focus on simulation of streamflow and transport of sediment and nutrients. These objectives were achieved with a thorough review of relevant literature on model application and recommended model evaluation methods. Based on this analysis, we recommend that three quantitative statistics, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), in addition to the graphical techniques, be used in model evaluation. The following model evaluation performance ratings were established for each recommended statistic. In general, model simulation can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.50 and RSR < 0.70, and if PBIAS + 25% for streamflow, PBIAS + 55% for sediment, and PBIAS + 70% for N and P. For PBIAS, constituent-specific performance ratings were determined based on uncertainty of measured data. Additional considerations related to model evaluation guidelines are also discussed. These considerations include: single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude. A case study illustrating the application of the model evaluation guidelines is also provided.

9,386 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Feb 2008-Science
TL;DR: Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks and threatens to derail efforts to conserve and manage water resources.
Abstract: Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.

3,438 citations


"Cooperative filling approaches for ..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...We acknowledge that the selected hydrologic method does not reflect future transient climate change conditions (Milly et al., 2008) or the ‘Hurst effect’ of persistent behaviour of flows (Hurst, Black, & Simaika, 1965); however, the approach is considered sufficiently robust for this analysis given…...

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  • ...We acknowledge that the selected hydrologic method does not reflect future transient climate change conditions (Milly et al., 2008) or the ‘Hurst effect’ of persistent behaviour of flows (Hurst, Black, & Simaika, 1965); however, the approach is considered sufficiently robust for this analysis given the short-term nature of the filling process....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This study suggests that efforts to mobilize S&T for sustainability are more likely to be effective when they manage boundaries between knowledge and action in ways that simultaneously enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of the information they produce.
Abstract: The challenge of meeting human development needs while protecting the earth's life support systems confronts scientists, technologists, policy makers, and communities from local to global levels. Many believe that science and technology (S&T) must play a more central role in sustainable development, yet little systematic scholarship exists on how to create institutions that effectively harness S&T for sustainability. This study suggests that efforts to mobilize S&T for sustainability are more likely to be effective when they manage boundaries between knowledge and action in ways that simultaneously enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of the information they produce. Effective systems apply a variety of institutional mechanisms that facilitate communication, translation and mediation across boundaries.

2,934 citations


"Cooperative filling approaches for ..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Cash et al. (2003) describe the essential role and criteria of knowledge systems to enhance the credibility, legitimacy and saliency of the information they provide....

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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jul 1966

739 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The WEAP21 model extends the previous WEAP model by introducing the concept of demand priorities and supply preferences, which are used in a linear programming heuristic to solve the water allocation problem as an alternative to multi-criteria weighting or rule-based logic approaches.
Abstract: The Water Evaluation and Planning Version 21 (WEAP21) Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) model seamlessly integrates water supplies generated through watershed-scale hydrologic processes with a water management model driven by water demands and environmental requirements and is governed by the natural watershed and physical network of reservoirs, canals, and diversions. This version (WEAP21) extends the previous WEAP model by introducing the concept of demand priorities and supply preferences, which are used in a linear programming heuristic to solve the water allocation problem as an alternative to multi-criteria weighting or rule-based logic approaches. WEAP21 introduces a transparent set of model objects and procedures that can be used to analyze a full range of issues faced by water planners through a scenario-based approach. These issues include climate variability and change, watershed condition, anticipated demands, ecosystem needs, the regulatory environment, operational objectiv...

642 citations