Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change.
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It is argued that convergent lines of independent evidence provide a robust basis for predicting and managing extinctions risks under climate change.Abstract:
Good forecasts of climate change impacts on extinction risks are critical for effective conservation management responses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are central to extinction risk analyses. The reliability of predictions of SDMs has been questioned because models often lack a mechanistic underpinning and rely on assumptions that are untenable under climate change. We show how integrating predictions from fundamentally different modeling strategies produces robust forecasts of climate change impacts on habitat and population parameters. We illustrate the principle by applying mechanistic (Niche Mapper) and correlative (Maxent, Bioclim) SDMs to predict current and future distributions and fertility of an Australian gliding possum. The two approaches make congruent, accurate predictions of current distribution and similar, dire predictions about the impact of a warming scenario, supporting previous correlative-only predictions for similar species. We argue that convergent lines of independent evidence provide a robust basis for predicting and managing extinctions risks under climate change.read more
Citations
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Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.
TL;DR: Overall, this review shows that current estimates of future biodiversity are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered.
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The art of modelling range-shifting species
TL;DR: Modelling approaches are explored that aim to minimize extrapolation errors and assess predictions against prior biological knowledge to promote methods appropriate to range‐shifting species.
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Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation
Raymond B. Huey,Michael R. Kearney,Andrew K. Krockenberger,Joseph A. M. Holtum,Mellissa Jess,Stephen E. Williams +5 more
TL;DR: It is concluded that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests and their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions, as genetic and selective data are scant.
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Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling
TL;DR: Critics of bioclimatic envelope models are reviewed to suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change threatens European conservation areas
Miguel B. Araújo,Diogo Alagador,Diogo Alagador,Mar Cabeza,Mar Cabeza,David Nogués-Bravo,David Nogués-Bravo,Wilfried Thuiller +7 more
TL;DR: The effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change is assessed and the risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change.
References
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Book
The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework, and the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics, with a liberal use of color graphics.
Journal ArticleDOI
Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of the maximum entropy method (Maxent) for modeling species geographic distributions with presence-only data was introduced, which is a general-purpose machine learning method with a simple and precise mathematical formulation.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction
TL;DR: The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction as discussed by the authors is a popular book for data mining and machine learning, focusing on data mining, inference, and prediction.
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Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems
TL;DR: For diagnostic systems used to distinguish between two classes of events, analysis in terms of the "relative operating characteristic" of signal detection theory provides a precise and valid measure of diagnostic accuracy.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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