COVID-19 in Poland: potential associations with epidemiology, population and healthcare quality
TL;DR: The positive correlation between DCI and both mortality and case fatality suggests that DCI could be considered as an indirect indicator of healthcare burden, compared to incidence rate alone.
Abstract: Introduction: An attempt to assess basic epidemiological data was made two months after confirming the first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Poland (March 4th, 2020). The aim of the study was to examine which indicators related to epidemiology, population characteristics and health care quality affect COVID-19 incidence, mortality and case fatality in Poland. Material and methods: The study was based on national data as of May 4th, 2020. For each voivodeship incidence rates, mortality rates, case fatality rates and daily cumulative index (DCI) were calculated. The correlations were examined using Pearson’s and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, with a significance level of p < 0.05 (2-tailed tests). Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate was 3.65 per 10,000 population, mortality rate 0.18 per 10,000 population and case fatality rate 5%. All three disease indicators were positively correlated with DCI and negatively correlated with the number of hospital beds in infectious diseases wards per 10,000 population. Both incidence and mortality rates were positively correlated with population density and number of cases per COVID-19 designated hospital. Conclusions: The positive correlation between DCI and both mortality and case fatality suggests that DCI could be considered as an indirect indicator of healthcare burden, compared to incidence rate alone. Our analysis confirms the role of social distancing in reducing viral transmission. The results could be useful for policymakers to plan ahead in order to relieve the risk of healthcare system overload during the current and future epidemics.
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01 Jan 2020
TL;DR: Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future.
Abstract: Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.
4,408 citations
TL;DR: The hazardous side effect for global health policies stemming from this optimism: unrealistic optimism (being unrealistically optimistic about future negative events), which may be responsible for new infections and may prevent the eradication of COVID-19 is assessed.
Abstract: Introduction: Optimism is boosted by leaders hoping for job creation, increased business spending, and a high consumption rate In this research, we assessed the hazardous side effect for global health policies stemming from this optimism: unrealistic optimism (being unrealistically optimistic about future negative events), which may be responsible for new infections and may prevent the eradication of COVID-19 The goal of the research was not only to assess whether this effect exists and to find out whether such an effect is global but also to evaluate whether there are groups resistant to this effect (presenting a potential toolkit for reducing this effect) Material and methods: In May and April of 2020, online surveys were administered among students in Iran, Kazakhstan, and Poland respectively to assess the unrealistic optimism/pessimism In study 1/objective 1, the survey was conducted twice (in a period of about 3 weeks) to assess the potential change (due to the anonymous codes delivered by the participants, we were able to make follow-ups between the same participants) in time in the 3 countries In the first wave, 1611 participants took the survey In the second wave, there were 1426 respondents In study 2, the survey was conducted among 207 Polish healthcare workers of the frontline hospital
16 citations
Cites background from "COVID-19 in Poland: potential assoc..."
...On the other hand, however, such optimism makes citizens unrealistic about the chances of getting the infection and, by the same token, it creates a risk to the general public [23, 24]....
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TL;DR: The analysis by age groups revealed that the significant risk of death started gradually at the age of 40 years, and highly prevalent chronic diseases are risk factors for death among persons with COVID-19.
Abstract: Introduction: Patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may develop coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Risk factors associated with death vary among countries with different ethnic backgrounds. We aimed to describe the factors associated with death in Mexicans with confirmed COVID-19. Material and methods: We analysed the Mexican Ministry of Health’s official database on people tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (rtRT-PCR) of nasopharyngeal fluids. Bivariate analyses were performed to select characteristics potentially associated with death, to integrate a Cox-proportional hazards model. Results: As of May 18, 2020, a total of 177,133 persons (90,586 men and 86,551 women) in Mexico received rtRT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2. There were 5332 deaths among the 51,633 rtRT-PCR-confirmed cases (10.33%, 95% CI: 10.07–10.59%). The median time (interquartile range, IQR) from symptoms onset to death was nine days (5–13 days), and from hospital admission to death 4 days (2–8 days). The analysis by age groups revealed that the significant risk of death started gradually at the age of 40 years. Independent death risk factors were obesity, hypertension, male sex, indigenous ethnicity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, immunosuppression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, age > 40 years, and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Only 1959 (3.8%) cases received IVM, of whom 1893 were admitted to the intensive care unit (96.6% of those who received IMV). Conclusions: In Mexico, highly prevalent chronic diseases are risk factors for death among persons with COVID-19. Indigenous ethnicity is a poorly studied factor that needs more investigation.
10 citations
TL;DR: The potential of big data technologies for controlling COVID-19 transmission and managing it effectively and several limitations ofbig data usage including unethical use, privacy, and exploitative use of data are explored.
Abstract: Introduction: Information has the power to protect against unexpected events and control any crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic Since COVID-19 has already rapidly spread all over the world, only technology-driven data management can provide accurate information to manage the crisis This study aims to explore the potential of big data technologies for controlling COVID-19 transmission and managing it effectively Methods: A systematic review guided by PRISMA guidelines has been performed to obtain the key elements Results: This study identified the thirty-two most relevant documents for qualitative analysis This study also reveals 10 possible sources and 8 key applications of big data for analyzing the virus infection trend, transmission pattern, virus association, and differences of genetic modifications It also explores several limitations of big data usage including unethical use, privacy, and exploitative use of data Conclusions: The findings of the study will provide new insight and help policymakers and administrators to develop data-driven initiatives to tackle and manage the COVID-19 crisis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Archives of Medical Science is the property of Termedia Publishing House and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )
9 citations
Cites background from "COVID-19 in Poland: potential assoc..."
...Arch Med Sci 3, April / 2021 833 able people to visualize its movement, which helps to take timely decisions for controlling the pandemic [50, 51]....
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TL;DR: The recommendations for European countries can be introducing educational activities at the state level among the population on the importance of vaccination against COVID-19, increasing the staffing of the healthcare system, conducting the audit on the effectiveness of using public funds, and developing the medical infrastructure.
Abstract: The year 2020 showed certain unpreparedness of the world’s countries for the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic due to the unpopular measures of closed borders and total quarantine. The leading social component that opposes a pandemic is the healthcare system. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to assess the ability of European countries to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The cluster modeling was performed using the STATISTICA 7.0 package. As a result of modeling, the studied countries were divided into 4 clusters. The first cluster included nine countries. According to the smallest distance, the core countries in this cluster are Ireland and Bulgaria. The second cluster included seven European countries. The core country in this cluster is Sweden. Five of the studied countries were part of the third cluster. The core country in this cluster is Estonia. The fourth cluster included economically developed European countries with a Scandinavian social economy model and countries with a transitive social economy model. The core country in the fourth cluster is Germany. The recommendations for European countries can be introducing educational activities at the state level among the population on the importance of vaccination against COVID-19, increasing the staffing of the healthcare system, conducting the audit on the effectiveness of using public funds, and developing the medical infrastructure.
4 citations
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TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death, including older age, high SOFA score and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL.
20,189 citations
TL;DR: Analysis of the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Italy might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks.
2,470 citations
"COVID-19 in Poland: potential assoc..." refers background in this paper
...Still, it is important to stress that mortality due to COVID-19 may be strongly affected by patients’ underlying conditions and critical care capacity (number of mechanical ventilators, intensive care units, critical care providers) [17, 26]....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China were investigated using synthetic location-specific contact patterns.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: In December, 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China. Since then, the city of Wuhan has taken unprecedented measures in response to the outbreak, including extended school and workplace closures. We aimed to estimate the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, hoping to provide some insights for the rest of the world. METHODS: To examine how changes in population mixing have affected outbreak progression in Wuhan, we used synthetic location-specific contact patterns in Wuhan and adapted these in the presence of school closures, extended workplace closures, and a reduction in mixing in the general community. Using these matrices and the latest estimates of the epidemiological parameters of the Wuhan outbreak, we simulated the ongoing trajectory of an outbreak in Wuhan using an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model for several physical distancing measures. We fitted the latest estimates of epidemic parameters from a transmission model to data on local and internationally exported cases from Wuhan in an age-structured epidemic framework and investigated the age distribution of cases. We also simulated lifting of the control measures by allowing people to return to work in a phased-in way and looked at the effects of returning to work at different stages of the underlying outbreak (at the beginning of March or April). FINDINGS: Our projections show that physical distancing measures were most effective if the staggered return to work was at the beginning of April; this reduced the median number of infections by more than 92% (IQR 66-97) and 24% (13-90) in mid-2020 and end-2020, respectively. There are benefits to sustaining these measures until April in terms of delaying and reducing the height of the peak, median epidemic size at end-2020, and affording health-care systems more time to expand and respond. However, the modelled effects of physical distancing measures vary by the duration of infectiousness and the role school children have in the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Restrictions on activities in Wuhan, if maintained until April, would probably help to delay the epidemic peak. Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually. However, there are limitations to our analysis, including large uncertainties around estimates of R0 and the duration of infectiousness. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.
1,775 citations
580 citations
"COVID-19 in Poland: potential assoc..." refers background in this paper
...Acknowledging the potential association of mortality and healthcare resource availability [25] implies that DCI could be used as an indirect indicator of healthcare burden....
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TL;DR: Although China had higher morbidity and mortality than other sites, the number of new daily cases in China has been lower than outside of China since 26 February 2020, and the incidence and mortality were correlated with the DCI.
309 citations