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Critical number of spacecraft in low Earth orbit: using satellite fragmentation data to evaluate the stability of the orbital debris environment
Donald J. Kessler,Phillip D. Anz-Meador +1 more
- Vol. 1, pp 265-272
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TLDR
In this paper, the authors concluded that the orbital debris environment for much of low Earth orbit is unstable and will seek a higher equilibrium even if no new debris is added to the environment.Abstract:
Previous studies have concluded that fragments from random collisions in low Earth orbit will cause the orbital debris population to increase despite efforts to minimize the accumulation of debris. New data from the orbital history of fragments in space and the laboratory hypervelocity breakup of a payload more accurately confirms this conclusion. The conclusions are reached that the orbital debris environment for much of low Earth orbit is unstable and will seek a higher equilibrium even if no new debris is added to the environment. Some regions may be slightly above a runaway level, where no equilibrium is possible as long as the number of intact objects remains constant. The rate of increase for collision fragments is currently low, but would increase rapidly with increases in the intact population.read more
Citations
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Risks in Space from Orbiting Debris
TL;DR: The LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a high-fidelity three-dimensional physical model developed by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that is capable of simulating the historical environment and the evolution of future debris populations as discussed by the authors.
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A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO
TL;DR: In this article, a removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed to rank objects at the beginning of each projection year, with removal rates ranging from 2 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020.
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Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations
TL;DR: In this article, a new study has been conducted in the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, using higher fidelity models to evaluate the current debris environment.
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Analysis of Debris from the Collision of the Cosmos 2251 and the Iridium 33 Satellites
TL;DR: The first on-orbit collision between a satellite and another satellite was reported in this article, where the authors estimated the total number, size, area-to-mass ratio, and relative velocity of the colliding fragments, and calculated the lifetime and orbital evolution of the fragments.
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Space debris: Assessing risk and responsibility
TL;DR: Estimates of damage generated by past and future space activities can be used to help determine one-time legacy fees and fees on future activities, which can deter future debris generation, compensate operational spacecraft that are destroyed in future collisions, and partially fund research and development into space debris mitigation technologies.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low earth orbit
TL;DR: In this paper, it is shown that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population with no explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads.
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Collision probability at low altitudes resulting from elliptical orbits
TL;DR: In this paper, the probability of a collision between a spacecraft and another object is calculated for various altitude and orbit conditions, and factors affecting the probability are discussed, and it is shown that a collision can only occur when the spacecraft is located at an altitude which is between the perigee and apogee altitudes of the object and that the probability per unit time is largest when the orbit of an object is nearly circular.
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On runaway conditions of orbital debris environment
TL;DR: In this article, an empirical function for the growth of the orbital debris particle density has been formulated and a growth coefficient in the function, based on the theoretical derivation of the evolution of the space debris environment, is obtained from the computer modeling.