Decentralisation, Economic Inequality and Insurgency
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated if devolution of political power in conflict-affected areas can reduce violence and found that political decentralisation has been widely recognized to improve access to local public services.
Abstract: This paper investigates if devolution of political power in conflict-affected areas can reduce violence. Political decentralisation has been widely recognised to improve access to local public serv...
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TL;DR: Kilgore's Prudence Couldn't Swim (Switchblade, 2012) is the first in a series of police procedurals set (mostly) this time in southern California, rather than southern Africa as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: campaign slogan ‘Water for freedom’. The ‘connections’ here are all-important: getting connected to a water supply turns out (and off and on) to be connected to what connections can be tapped within the governing bureaucracy manorially housed in Johannesburg, Pretoria and Cape Town. Township residents, however, like the informal trader Mrs Mehlo or the youthful HIV+ protester Slim, who diverts the charitable donation collected by Joanna from medication for himself to water for his compatriots, represent the emergent roster of a South African ‘civil society’, still spurned by global corporate interests and their national entrepreneurial partners. As Peter contemptuously comments to Susan, his new ‘girlfriend’, an anti-apartheid Afrikaner now working in government administration, ‘Where else do people still wear T-shirts with a hammer and sickle on the front? Jesus.’ ‘We are all Zimbabweans now’ and ‘Freedom never rests’, James Kilgore’s titles, were already popular slogans used (and abused) in the two struggles narrated retrospectively in Kilgore’s critical accounts, and they each recur as refrains in the respective (if hardly respectful) texts. Emitted from the mouths of protagonists and antagonists alike in the two post-liberation engagements, whether resolving a suspected assassination in Zimbabwe or fighting to connect to water delivery in South Africa’s townships, they suggest that it’s not only a question of ‘now’ or ‘never’, but a longer and more critical historical – even novel – narrative instead. Indeed, Kilgore is now out of prison and a research scholar in African Studies at the University of Illinois. His latest volume, Prudence Couldn’t Swim (Switchblade, 2012), the first in a series of police procedurals set (mostly) this time in southern California, rather than southern Africa, has just been published.
62 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the relevant scientific evidence on the impact of armed conflicts on water resources and their management through a systematic literature review and synthesize the overarching research results.
Abstract: Armed conflict has the potential to disrupt water systems that are crucial to environmental and human wellbeing. Yet there is no comprehensive overview of scientific evidence on the impact of armed conflicts on water resources and their management. This paper assesses the relevant scientific evidence through a systematic literature review. We discern conceptual, empirical, and methodological approaches adopted in the reviewed publications and synthesize the overarching research results. Common research topics across the body of literature include the role of water resources in armed conflicts, either as a casualty or as a weapon used by conflict parties, and the implications of armed conflict on water resources management, such as basic service provision and water governance. The analysis also pinpoints the research field's focus on empirical studies based on a small number of cases, and highlights a lack of conceptual engagement with the notion of armed conflict. Future research on water resources and their management in conflict settings needs to be more transparent on conceptual frameworks and assumptions to facilitate knowledge integration across different studies. This article is categorized under: Planning Water > Engineering Water Water Governance > Human Water.
24 citations
31 Mar 2014
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore whether rural employment schemes under MGNREGA can have a moderating impact on insurgency violence, and they find that rural employment can reduce insurgency violence.
Abstract: Thiemo Fetzer explores whether rural employment schemes under MGNREGA can have a moderating impact on insurgency violence.
22 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the employment of asymmetric decentralization to deal with separatist conflicts has become increasingly popular in recent years and contentions remain as to whether it is an effective tool to solve conflicts.
Abstract: The employment of asymmetric decentralization to deal with separatist conflicts has become increasingly popular in recent years. However, contentions remain as to whether it is an effective tool to...
9 citations
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TL;DR: This article showed that the current prevalence of internal war is mainly the result of a steady accumulation of protracted conflicts since the 1950s and 1960s rather than a sudden change associated with a new, post-Cold War international system.
Abstract: An influential conventional wisdom holds that civil wars proliferated rapidly with the end of the Cold War and that the root cause of many or most of these has been ethnic and religious antagonisms. We show that the current prevalence of internal war is mainly the result of a steady accumulation of protracted conflicts since the 1950s and 1960s rather than a sudden change associated with a new, post-Cold War international system. We also find that after controlling for per capita income, more ethnically or religiously diverse countries have been no more likely to experience significant civil violence in this period. We argue for understanding civil war in this period in terms of insurgency or rural guerrilla warfare, a particular form of military practice that can be harnessed to diverse political agendas. The factors that explain which countries have been at risk for civil war are not their ethnic or religious characteristics but rather the conditions that favor insurgency. These include poverty—which marks financially and bureaucratically weak states and also favors rebel recruitment—political instability, rough terrain, and large populations.We wish to thank the many people who provided comments on earlier versions of this paper in a series of seminar presentations. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation (Grants SES-9876477 and SES-9876530); support from the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences with funds from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation; valuable research assistance from Ebru Erdem, Nikolay Marinov, Quinn Mecham, David Patel, and TQ Shang; sharing of data by Paul Collier.
5,994 citations
"Decentralisation, Economic Inequali..." refers background in this paper
...(8) Forests (percentage of total area covered by forests): Areas with forests, difficult terrain, and slopes are difficult to access by the state, providing a conducive environment for insurgents to carry out their activities (Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Hoelscher et al., 2012)....
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TL;DR: Collier and Hoeffler as discussed by the authors compare two contrasting motivations for rebellion: greed and grievance, and show that many rebellions are linked to the capture of resources (such as diamonds in Angola and Sierra Leone, drugs in Colombia, and timber in Cambodia).
Abstract: Of the 27 major armed conflicts that occurred in 1999, all but two took place within national boundaries. As an impediment to development, internal rebellion especially hurts the world's poorest countries. What motivates civil wars? Greed or grievance? Collier and Hoeffler compare two contrasting motivations for rebellion: greed and grievance. Most rebellions are ostensibly in pursuit of a cause, supported by a narrative of grievance. But since grievance assuagement through rebellion is a public good that a government will not supply, economists predict such rebellions would be rare. Empirically, many rebellions appear to be linked to the capture of resources (such as diamonds in Angola and Sierra Leone, drugs in Colombia, and timber in Cambodia). Collier and Hoeffler set up a simple rational choice model of greed-rebellion and contrast its predictions with those of a simple grievance model. Some countries return to conflict repeatedly. Are they conflict-prone or is there a feedback effect whereby conflict generates grievance, which in turn generates further conflict? The authors show why such a feedback effect might be present in both greed-motivated and grievance rebellions. The authors' results contrast with conventional beliefs about the causes of conflict. A stylized version of conventional beliefs would be that grievance begets conflict, which begets grievance, which begets further conflict. With such a model, the only point at which to intervene is to reduce the level of objective grievance. Collier and Hoeffler's model suggests that what actually happens is that opportunities for predation (controlling primary commodity exports) cause conflict and the grievances this generates induce dias-poras to finance further conflict. The point of policy intervention here is to reduce the absolute and relative attraction of primary commodity predation and to reduce the ability of diasporas to fund rebel movements. This paper - a product of the Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study civil war and criminal violence. For more on this effort, go to www.worldbank.org/research/conflict. Paul Collier may be contacted at pcollier@worldbank.org.
5,349 citations
TL;DR: The authors investigated the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99 and found that economic viability appears to be the predominant systematic explanation of rebellion, while atypically severe grievances such as high inequality, a lack of political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society.
Abstract: This study investigates the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. Rebellion may be explained by atypically severe grievances, such as high inequality, a lack of political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society. Alternatively, it might be explained by atypical opportunities for building a rebel organization. Opportunity may be determined by access to finance, such as the scope for extortion of natural resources, and for donations from a Diaspora population. Opportunity may also depend upon factors such as geography: mountains and forests may be needed to incubate rebellion. These explanations are tested and find that opportunity provides considerably more explanatory power than grievance. Economic viability appears to be the predominant systematic explanation of rebellion. The results are robust to correction for outliers, alternative variable definition, and variations in estimation method
3,808 citations
01 Oct 1998
TL;DR: The authors investigated whether civil wars have economic causes, and found that the relationship between civil wars and ethnic diversity is non-monotonic; highly fractionalised societies have no greater risk of experiencing a civil war than homogenous ones.
Abstract: We investigate whether civil wars have economic causes. The model is based on utility theory, rebels will conduct a civil war if the perceived benefits outweigh the costs of rebellion. Using probit and tobit models the propositions are tested empirically. Four variables, initial income, ethno-linguistic fractionalisation, the amount of natural resources, and initial population size are significant and strong determinants of the duration and the probability of civil wars. One important finding is that the relationship between civil wars and ethnic diversity is non-monotonic; highly fractionalised societies have no greater risk of experiencing a civil war than homogenous ones.
2,314 citations
TL;DR: This paper used rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981-99 and found that growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one half the following year.
Abstract: Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one‐half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.
1,951 citations