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Journal ArticleDOI

Decision Support System for Crop Planning during Droughts

01 Mar 1992-Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce (American Society of Civil Engineers)-Vol. 118, Iss: 2, pp 229-241
TL;DR: In this article, a linear programming model was used to generate optimal cropping patterns from past drought experiences as also from synthetic drought occurrences in a tropical region such as India, where one third of the cropped area is affected by frequent droughts.
Abstract: Demand for water is increasing continually, whereas available supplies are more or less constant. Under these circumstances there is an urgent need to introduce efficient techniques in water resources management for optimal utilization of available water. Water management under drought conditions assumes great importance in a tropical region such as India, where one‐third of the cropped area is affected by frequent droughts. This paper deals with the development and application of an expert system for drought management. A linear programming model was used to generate optimal cropping patterns from past drought experiences as also from synthetic drought occurrences. These policies together with the knowledge of the experts were incorporated in an expert system. Using this, one can identify the degree of drought in the current situation and its similarity to the identified drought events and be able to get the corresponding management strategy.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an expert system called Intelligent Flood Management System for the selection of appropriate flood damage reduction measures for a given area is described, which is based on hydraulic, hydrological, geotechnical, environmental and economic factors related to the river system and the area to be protected from floods.
Abstract: Heuristic knowledge has been integrated with analytical tools to support decision making for flood management. Development of an expert system called Intelligent Flood Management System for the selection of appropriate flood damage reduction measures for a given area is described. The selection of flood damage reduction measures is based on hydraulic, hydrological, geotechnical, environmental, and economic factors related to the river system and the area to be protected from floods. The knowledge base of the Intelligent Flood Management System is generic and can be used to identify a suitable flood management option for any area. The model base of the Intelligent Flood Management System consists of the hydraulic analysis package HEC-RAS, the flood damage analysis program HEC-FDA, and a model for economic analysis. The graphical user interface is developed for effective communication with the system. The developed system has been implemented to identify appropriate flood damage reduction options for the to...

56 citations


Cites methods from "Decision Support System for Crop Pl..."

  • ...Raman et al. (1992) used an expert system and linear programming model to develop a decision support system for crop planning during droughts....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The adoptability and suitability of ES applications in the domain of irrigation management is reviewed, showing that the ES approach is applied more recently to broader domain areas in contrast to earlier systems that were focused on narrower domain problems.

52 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a method of combining model ensemble simulations and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to speculate the probability of crop production, and further quantitatively analyzed the impact of the uncertainty of coupled model parameters and environmental scenarios on crop production.
Abstract: The hydrologic model HYDRUS-1-D and the crop growth model WOFOST are coupled to efficiently manage water resources in agriculture and improve the prediction of crop production. The results of the coupled model are validated by experimental studies of irrigated-maize done in the middle reaches of northwest China's Heihe River, a semi-arid to arid region. Good agreement is achieved between the simulated evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop production and their respective field measurements made under current maize irrigation and fertilization. Based on the calibrated model, the scenario analysis reveals that the most optimal amount of irrigation is 500–600 mm in this region. However, for regions without detailed observation, the results of the numerical simulation can be unreliable for irrigation decision making owing to the shortage of calibrated model boundary conditions and parameters. So, we develop a method of combining model ensemble simulations and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to speculate the probability of crop production. In our studies, the uncertainty analysis is used to reveal the risk of facing a loss of crop production as irrigation decreases. The global sensitivity analysis is used to test the coupled model and further quantitatively analyse the impact of the uncertainty of coupled model parameters and environmental scenarios on crop production. This method can be used for estimation in regions with no or reduced data availability.

42 citations


Cites background or methods from "Decision Support System for Crop Pl..."

  • ...based on socio-political considerations, to technological ones (Paudyal and Das Gupta, 1990; Raman et al., 1992)....

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  • ...In the last 20 yr, irrigation planning methods have switched from the allocation approach, e.g. based on socio-political considerations, to technological ones (Paudyal and Das Gupta, 1990; Raman et al., 1992)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a simulation and optimization model was developed and applied to an irrigated area in Delta, Utah to optimize the economic benefit, simulate the water demand, and search the related crop area percentages with specified water supply and planted area constraints.
Abstract: A simulation and optimization model was developed and applied to an irrigated area in Delta, Utah to optimize the economic benefit, simulate the water demand, and search the related crop area percentages with specified water supply and planted area constraints. The user interface model begins with the weather generation submodel, which produces daily weather data, which is based on long-term monthly average and standard deviation data from Delta, Utah. To simulate the daily crop water demand and relative crop yield for seven crops in two command areas, the information provided by this submodel was applied to the on-farm irrigation scheduling submodel. Furthermore, to optimize the project benefit by searching for the best allocation of planted crop areas given the constraints of projected water supply, the results were employed in the genetic algorithm submodel. Optimal planning for the 394·6-ha area of the Delta irrigation project is projected to produce the maximum economic benefit. That is, projected profit equals US$113 826 and projected water demand equals 3·03 × 106 m3. Also, area percentages of crops within UCA#2 command area are 70·1%, 19% and 10·9% for alfalfa, barley and corn, respectively, and within UCA#4 command area are 41·5%, 38·9%, 14·4% and 5·2% for alfalfa, barley, corn and wheat, respectively. As this model can plan irrigation application depths and allocate crop areas for optimal economic benefit, it can thus be applied to many irrigation projects. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

40 citations


Cites background or methods from "Decision Support System for Crop Pl..."

  • ...To generate optimal cropping patterns based on previous droughts, Raman et al. (1992) developed a linear programming (LP) model....

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  • ...Moreover, traditional optimization models in irrigation planning have been of extensive interest (Matanga and Marino, 1979; Paudyal and Gupta, 1990; Raman et al., 1992; Singh et al., 1999)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared the performance of 38 irrigation associations in a large irrigation area in Spain during a severe drought as a test of hypotheses derived from property right theories, and found that the performance is higher when the associations enjoy effective monitoring systems, experience and legitimate leaders, and facilitative biophysical conditions like soil water holding capacity.

40 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A decision support system used to aid in drought decisions is described, which incorporates operator experience and intuition using a rule base developed through interviews with management personnel from the Seattle Water Department.
Abstract: Seattle, Washington, suffered its most extreme drought on record during the summer and fall of 1987. Severe and continuing water use restrictions were required to limit the drought's impact on municipal water supplies, fish populations, and navigation. This paper describes a decision support system used to aid in drought decisions. Its components include an expert system, a linear programming model, database management tools, and computer graphics. The expert system incorporates operator experience and intuition using a rule base developed through interviews with management personnel from the Seattle Water Department. The expert system also integrates the other programming techniques into a single system. A linear programming model determines system yield and optimal operating policies for past hydrologic regimes. Database management and graphics software store and allow the display of over two thousand operating policies to decision‐makers. The system provides user‐friendly support to help decision‐maker...

53 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The presentation is illustrated with an example of an engineering expert system for reservoir analysis that is currently in development, and the potential benefits of this technology in the area of reservoir management and operations are presented.
Abstract: Reservoir management and operations are very complex activities in the field of water resources engineering. During the last two decades, a number of systems analysis techniques, particularly optimization and simulation, have been adopted for reservoir planning, design, and operations. Recently, the area of knowledge-based engineering (expert systems) has emerged as a potential technique for incorporationg human expertise and some degree of intelligent judgment into decision-supporting software. This paper presents the potential benefits of this technology in the area of reservoir management and operations. The presentation is illustrated with an example of an engineering expert system for reservoir analysis that is currently in development.

50 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An interactive user‐support framework has been developed to automate the calibration of the runoff block and acts as a front end to assist the user in the initial estimation of the parameter values and in building the SWMM input files.
Abstract: EPA'S Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) simulates all aspects of the hydrologic and quality cycles. Using expert system technology, an interactive user‐support framework has been developed to automate the calibration of the runoff block. It acts as a front end to assist the user in the initial estimation of the parameter values and in building the SWMM input files. It interprets the simulation results and suggests some useful adjustments in the value of significant parameters thus reducing the user's time and effort. For the interpretation of simulation results, production rules are employed to help the user decide what parameters need to be adjusted. Some heuristics have been developed to evaluate the new parameter values. The combination of simulation techniques and expert system methodologies facilitates the use of sophisticated models such as SWMM.

49 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A methodology in which an expert system shell (INSIGHT 2+) is used to evaluate and display information on drought management planning and a linear programming model is usedto generate optimal operating policies as a function of numerous past drought experiences is presented.
Abstract: Expert systems have been proposed for a wide range of civil engineering applications. They have been applied most successfully in situations governed by simple rules. Many civil engineering decisions, however, must be made in environments in which simple rules are not possible, but rather large amounts of data must be analyzed and evaluated. This paper presents a methodology in which an expert system shell (INSIGHT 2+) is used to evaluate and display information on drought management planning. A linear programming model is used to generate optimal operating policies as a function of numerous past drought experiences. These policies are incorporated into an expert system where the user is required to identify the degree to which the current drought situation is similar to past events. The expert system then aids the user in developing appropriate management policies based on time of year, descriptions of drought intensity, and other system characteristics.

29 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Mar 1987
TL;DR: In this paper, the basic features of expert systems are outlined and illustrated, and the potential of such an approach as an aid to decision-making in the field of river basin management is explored.
Abstract: The basic features of expert systems are outlined and illustrated, and the potential of such an approach as an aid to decision-making in the field of river basin management is explored. Work undertaken towards the development of an expert system for the operational control of a wastewater treatment plant is described. Further areas of potential application are discussed, including data utilization.

6 citations