Decision Support System for Crop Planning during Droughts
01 Mar 1992-Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce (American Society of Civil Engineers)-Vol. 118, Iss: 2, pp 229-241
TL;DR: In this article, a linear programming model was used to generate optimal cropping patterns from past drought experiences as also from synthetic drought occurrences in a tropical region such as India, where one third of the cropped area is affected by frequent droughts.
Abstract: Demand for water is increasing continually, whereas available supplies are more or less constant. Under these circumstances there is an urgent need to introduce efficient techniques in water resources management for optimal utilization of available water. Water management under drought conditions assumes great importance in a tropical region such as India, where one‐third of the cropped area is affected by frequent droughts. This paper deals with the development and application of an expert system for drought management. A linear programming model was used to generate optimal cropping patterns from past drought experiences as also from synthetic drought occurrences. These policies together with the knowledge of the experts were incorporated in an expert system. Using this, one can identify the degree of drought in the current situation and its similarity to the identified drought events and be able to get the corresponding management strategy.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a working definition of a decision support system (DSS) is presented, which is an integrated, interactive computer system, consisting of analytical tools and information management capabilities, designed to aid decision makers in solving relatively large, unstructured problems.
Abstract: In order to limit the scope of this review, a working definition of a decision support system is needed. L. Adelman has defined decision support systems (DSSs) as “interactive computer programs that utilize analytical methods, such as decision analysis, optimization algorithms, program scheduling routines, and so on, for developing models to help decision makers formulate alternatives, analyze their impacts, and interpret and select appropriate options for implementation” (Adelman [1992], p. 2). Another definition has been offered by S. J. Andriole, who defined decision support as consisting of “any and all data, information, expertise or activities that contribute to option selection“ (Andriole [1989], p. 3). A common idea explicit in each of these definitions is that DSSs integrate various technologies and aid in option selection. Implicit in each definition is that these are options for solving relatively large, unstructured problems. Thus, the following working definition of a DSS will be used in this review: A DSS is an integrated, interactive computer system, consisting of analytical tools and information management capabilities, designed to aid decision makers in solving relatively large, unstructured problems.
33 citations
TL;DR: In this article, simulation and optimization models were assembled for the optimization of irrigation systems and their operation The simulation model CROPWAT was used for estimation of the crop water requirement, time and depth The evolutionary algorithm (GANetXL) is used for the optimal planning of cropping pattern, maximization of net benefits and minimization of irrigation water requirements for the study area of Holeta catchment, Ethiopia.
Abstract: In this study, simulation and optimization models were assembled for the optimization of irrigation systems and their operation The simulation model CROPWAT was used for estimation of the crop water requirement, time and depth The evolutionary algorithm (GANetXL) was used for the optimal planning of cropping pattern, maximization of net benefits and minimization of irrigation water requirements for the study area of Holeta catchment, Ethiopia The study area encompasses three command areas, ie farm A, farm B and Tsedey State Farm, and five different type of crops, ie potato, tomato, apple, peach and winter wheat The simulation results of the CROPWAT model illustrated that crop water requirement for apple was highest (993 mm), followed by peach (908 mm), tomato (470 mm), potato (443 mm) and wheat (294 mm) The study reveals that fruit crops have more crop water requirements than cereals The results of the GANetXL show that when the cropped area and water allocated was varied between extreme values, 23% of water can be saved The total benefit from the study area can be enhanced by USD 34 ha−¹ and can be helpful in improving the economic conditions of the farmers Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
RESUME
Dans cette etude, des modeles de simulation d'optimisation ont ete assembles pour optimiser les systemes d'irrigation et leur conduite Le modele de simulation CROPWAT a ete utilise pour l'estimation quantitative et temporelle des besoins en eau des cultures L'algorithme evolutionnaire (GANetXL) a ete utilise pour la planification optimale de la repartition des cultures, la maximisation des benefices nets et la minimisation des besoins en eau d'irrigation pour la zone d'etude du bassin versant de Holeta, en Ethiopie La zone d'etude englobe trois mailles hydraulique, a savoir les fermes A et B et la ferme d'Etat de Tsedey; cinq cultures differentes ont ete considerees: pommes de terre, tomate, pomme, peche et ble d'hiver Les resultats des simulations du modele CROPWAT ont montre que les besoins en eau des cultures les plus eleves etaient ceux de la pomme (989 mm), puis ceux de la peche (912 mm), de la tomate (469 mm), des pommes de terre (443 mm) et du ble (293 mm) L'etude confirme ainsi que les besoins en eau de l'arboriculture sont superieurs a ceux de la cerealiculture Les resultats de l'GANetXL montrent qu'en faisant varier la superficie cultivee et l'eau allouee entre deux valeurs extremes, il existe un optimum qui permet d'economiser 23% de l'eau d'irrigation et d'ameliorer la marge nette de la zone d'etudes de USD 34 ha−¹, ameliorant ainsi la condition economique des agriculteurs Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
32 citations
Cites background from "Decision Support System for Crop Pl..."
...Moreover, traditional optimization models in irrigation planning have been of extensive interest (Matanga and Marino, 1979; Paudyal and Gupta, 1990; Raman et al., 1992; Singh et al., 1999)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors deal with stochastic modelling of monthly inflows into a reservoir system in the monsoon climatic coditions using a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model based on 25 years of data with logarithmic transformation.
Abstract: This paper deals with stochastic modelling of monthly inflows into a reservoir system in the monsoon climatic coditions using a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model based on 25 years of data with logarithmic transformation. The developed model was applied to forecast the monthly inflows for 27 years. The comparison of these forecasted flows with the actual flows reveals that the ARIMA family models are adequate for longterm forecasting of inflows. The parameter uncertainity was also evaluated and found to be minimal thus avoiding the frequent updating of the model for forecasting. The use of the model in evolving optimal cropping patterns and optimal operational policies is also highlighted.
32 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed the irrigation planning model and applied the same in the form of Multi Objective Fuzzy Linear Programming (MOFLP) approach for crop planning in command area of Jayakwadi Project Stage I, Maharashtra State, India.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to develop the irrigation planning model and to apply the same in the form of Multi Objective Fuzzy Linear Programming (MOFLP) approach for crop planning in command area of Jayakwadi Project Stage I, Maharashtra State, India. To formulate MOFLP model various Linear Programming (LP) models are developed to optimize the Net Benefits (NB), Crop/Yield Production (YP), Employment Generation (EG) and Manure Utilization (MU) for which the objective function and constraints are crisp in nature. From the results of these LP models the linear membership function for each individual objective function has been developed. Considering the decision makers satisfaction level (λ), all the four objectives are maximized simultaneously. The results of the MOFLP and LP are compared. The MOFLP model concentrates on satisfying four objectives simultaneously. The present model will be helpful for the decision maker to take decision under conflicting situation when planning for different objectives simultaneously. The degree of satisfaction λ, works out to be 0.58. Compromised solution provides Net Benefits 1503.73 Million Rupees, Crop Production 319563.50 Tons, Employment Generation/Labour Requirement 29.74 Million Man days and Manure Utilization 154506.50 Tons respectively.
29 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a linear programming (LP) based optimization model and a simulation model are developed and applied in a typical diversion type irrigation system for land and water allocation during the dry season.
Abstract: A linear programming (LP) based optimization model and a simulation model are developed and applied in a typical diversion type irrigation system for land and water allocation during the dry season. Optimum cropping patterns for different management strategies are obtained by the LP model for different irrigation efficiencies and water availability scenarios. The simulation model yields the risk-related irrigation system performance measures (i.e. reliability, resiliency and vulnerability) for the management policies defined by the optimization model. The alternative strategies are evaluated in terms of all performance criteria (i.e. net economic benefit, equity and reliability) simultaneously through a trade-off analysis using a multi-criteria decision making method (compromise programming). For the case study of the Kankai irrigation system in Nepal, with equal preference to the objectives, a management strategy with equal share of water among the project subareas appears to be the most satisfactory alternative under water shortage conditions. The existing water allocation policy is not economically efficient. Deficit irrigation in Early paddy appears attractive under favorable hydrologic scenario, particularly if accompanied by measures to improve existing irrigation system efficiency.
28 citations
References
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TL;DR: A decision support system used to aid in drought decisions is described, which incorporates operator experience and intuition using a rule base developed through interviews with management personnel from the Seattle Water Department.
Abstract: Seattle, Washington, suffered its most extreme drought on record during the summer and fall of 1987. Severe and continuing water use restrictions were required to limit the drought's impact on municipal water supplies, fish populations, and navigation. This paper describes a decision support system used to aid in drought decisions. Its components include an expert system, a linear programming model, database management tools, and computer graphics. The expert system incorporates operator experience and intuition using a rule base developed through interviews with management personnel from the Seattle Water Department. The expert system also integrates the other programming techniques into a single system. A linear programming model determines system yield and optimal operating policies for past hydrologic regimes. Database management and graphics software store and allow the display of over two thousand operating policies to decision‐makers. The system provides user‐friendly support to help decision‐maker...
53 citations
TL;DR: The presentation is illustrated with an example of an engineering expert system for reservoir analysis that is currently in development, and the potential benefits of this technology in the area of reservoir management and operations are presented.
Abstract: Reservoir management and operations are very complex activities in the field of water resources engineering. During the last two decades, a number of systems analysis techniques, particularly optimization and simulation, have been adopted for reservoir planning, design, and operations. Recently, the area of knowledge-based engineering (expert systems) has emerged as a potential technique for incorporationg human expertise and some degree of intelligent judgment into decision-supporting software. This paper presents the potential benefits of this technology in the area of reservoir management and operations. The presentation is illustrated with an example of an engineering expert system for reservoir analysis that is currently in development.
50 citations
TL;DR: An interactive user‐support framework has been developed to automate the calibration of the runoff block and acts as a front end to assist the user in the initial estimation of the parameter values and in building the SWMM input files.
Abstract: EPA'S Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) simulates all aspects of the hydrologic and quality cycles. Using expert system technology, an interactive user‐support framework has been developed to automate the calibration of the runoff block. It acts as a front end to assist the user in the initial estimation of the parameter values and in building the SWMM input files. It interprets the simulation results and suggests some useful adjustments in the value of significant parameters thus reducing the user's time and effort. For the interpretation of simulation results, production rules are employed to help the user decide what parameters need to be adjusted. Some heuristics have been developed to evaluate the new parameter values. The combination of simulation techniques and expert system methodologies facilitates the use of sophisticated models such as SWMM.
49 citations
TL;DR: A methodology in which an expert system shell (INSIGHT 2+) is used to evaluate and display information on drought management planning and a linear programming model is usedto generate optimal operating policies as a function of numerous past drought experiences is presented.
Abstract: Expert systems have been proposed for a wide range of civil engineering applications. They have been applied most successfully in situations governed by simple rules. Many civil engineering decisions, however, must be made in environments in which simple rules are not possible, but rather large amounts of data must be analyzed and evaluated. This paper presents a methodology in which an expert system shell (INSIGHT 2+) is used to evaluate and display information on drought management planning. A linear programming model is used to generate optimal operating policies as a function of numerous past drought experiences. These policies are incorporated into an expert system where the user is required to identify the degree to which the current drought situation is similar to past events. The expert system then aids the user in developing appropriate management policies based on time of year, descriptions of drought intensity, and other system characteristics.
29 citations
01 Mar 1987
TL;DR: In this paper, the basic features of expert systems are outlined and illustrated, and the potential of such an approach as an aid to decision-making in the field of river basin management is explored.
Abstract: The basic features of expert systems are outlined and illustrated, and the potential of such an approach as an aid to decision-making in the field of river basin management is explored. Work undertaken towards the development of an expert system for the operational control of a wastewater treatment plant is described. Further areas of potential application are discussed, including data utilization.
6 citations