Detection of widespread horizontal pleiotropy in causal relationships inferred from Mendelian randomization between complex traits and diseases.
TL;DR: The MR-PRESSO test detects and corrects horizontal pleiotropy in multi-instrument Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses and introduces distortions in the causal estimates in MR that ranged on average from –131% to 201%; it is shown using simulations that the MR-pressO test is best suited when horizontal Pleiotropy occurs in <50% of instruments.
Abstract: Horizontal pleiotropy occurs when the variant has an effect on disease outside of its effect on the exposure in Mendelian randomization (MR). Violation of the ‘no horizontal pleiotropy’ assumption can cause severe bias in MR. We developed the Mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) test to identify horizontal pleiotropic outliers in multi-instrument summary-level MR testing. We showed using simulations that the MR-PRESSO test is best suited when horizontal pleiotropy occurs in 48% of causal relationships.
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TL;DR: MR-Base is a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR, and includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions.
Abstract: Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used to infer causal relationships between phenotypes, using a strategy known as 2-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) and bypassing the need for individual-level data. However, 2SMR methods are evolving rapidly and GWAS results are often insufficiently curated, undermining efficient implementation of the approach. We therefore developed MR-Base ( http://www.mrbase.org ): a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR. The software includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions. The database currently comprises 11 billion single nucleotide polymorphism-trait associations from 1673 GWAS and is updated on a regular basis. Integrating data with software ensures more rigorous application of hypothesis-driven analyses and allows millions of potential causal relationships to be efficiently evaluated in phenome-wide association studies.
2,520 citations
TL;DR: This review outlines how newly developed methods can be used together to improve the reliability of Mendelian randomization and discusses the burgeoning treasure trove of genetic associations yielded through genome wide association studies.
Abstract: Pleiotropy, the phenomenon of a single genetic variant influencing multiple traits, is likely widespread in the human genome. If pleiotropy arises because the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) influences one trait, which in turn influences another ('vertical pleiotropy'), then Mendelian randomization (MR) can be used to estimate the causal influence between the traits. Of prime focus among the many limitations to MR is the unprovable assumption that apparent pleiotropic associations are mediated by the exposure (i.e. reflect vertical pleiotropy), and do not arise due to SNPs influencing the two traits through independent pathways ('horizontal pleiotropy'). The burgeoning treasure trove of genetic associations yielded through genome wide association studies makes for a tantalizing prospect of phenome-wide causal inference. Recent years have seen substantial attention devoted to the problem of horizontal pleiotropy, and in this review we outline how newly developed methods can be used together to improve the reliability of MR.
640 citations
Cites background or methods from "Detection of widespread horizontal ..."
...based heterogeneity and outlier test is proposed within MR-PRESSO (61), which performs similarly to modified second-order...
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...A simulationbased heterogeneity and outlier test is proposed within MR-PRESSO (61), which performs similarly to modified second-order weighting of Cohran’s Q statistic....
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...Such outlier removal strategies are present in the MR-PRESSO (61), and generalized summary MR (GSMR) approaches (62)....
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TL;DR: Evidence of a causal effect of the gut microbiome on metabolic traits is shown and the use of MR is supported as a means to elucidate causal relationships from microbiome-wide association findings.
Abstract: Microbiome-wide association studies on large population cohorts have highlighted associations between the gut microbiome and complex traits, including type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity1. However, the causal relationships remain largely unresolved. We leveraged information from 952 normoglycemic individuals for whom genome-wide genotyping, gut metagenomic sequence and fecal short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) levels were available2, then combined this information with genome-wide-association summary statistics for 17 metabolic and anthropometric traits. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to assess causality3, we found that the host-genetic-driven increase in gut production of the SCFA butyrate was associated with improved insulin response after an oral glucose-tolerance test (P = 9.8 × 10-5), whereas abnormalities in the production or absorption of another SCFA, propionate, were causally related to an increased risk of T2D (P = 0.004). These data provide evidence of a causal effect of the gut microbiome on metabolic traits and support the use of MR as a means to elucidate causal relationships from microbiome-wide association findings.
631 citations
University of Cambridge1, University of Bristol2, University of Leicester3, Imperial College London4, University of California, San Francisco5, Universidade Federal de Pelotas6, Clinical Trial Service Unit7, University of Oxford8, National Institutes of Health9, Edinburgh Cancer Research Centre10, University of Edinburgh11
TL;DR: The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses, data presentation, and interpretation.
Abstract: This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months.
491 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity was investigated and the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses were presented.
Abstract: The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-191,2, host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases3-7. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.
485 citations
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TL;DR: The 1000 Genomes Project set out to provide a comprehensive description of common human genetic variation by applying whole-genome sequencing to a diverse set of individuals from multiple populations, and has reconstructed the genomes of 2,504 individuals from 26 populations using a combination of low-coverage whole-generation sequencing, deep exome sequencing, and dense microarray genotyping.
Abstract: The 1000 Genomes Project set out to provide a comprehensive description of common human genetic variation by applying whole-genome sequencing to a diverse set of individuals from multiple populations. Here we report completion of the project, having reconstructed the genomes of 2,504 individuals from 26 populations using a combination of low-coverage whole-genome sequencing, deep exome sequencing, and dense microarray genotyping. We characterized a broad spectrum of genetic variation, in total over 88 million variants (84.7 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 3.6 million short insertions/deletions (indels), and 60,000 structural variants), all phased onto high-quality haplotypes. This resource includes >99% of SNP variants with a frequency of >1% for a variety of ancestries. We describe the distribution of genetic variation across the global sample, and discuss the implications for common disease studies.
12,661 citations
TL;DR: Mendelian randomization provides new opportunities to test causality and demonstrates how investment in the human genome project may contribute to understanding and preventing the adverse effects on human health of modifiable exposures.
Abstract: Associations between modifiable exposures and disease seen in observational epidemiology are sometimes confounded and thus misleading, despite our best efforts to improve the design and analysis of studies. Mendelian randomization-the random assortment of genes from parents to offspring that occurs during gamete formation and conception-provides one method for assessing the causal nature of some environmental exposures. The association between a disease and a polymorphism that mimics the biological link between a proposed exposure and disease is not generally susceptible to the reverse causation or confounding that may distort interpretations of conventional observational studies. Several examples where the phenotypic effects of polymorphisms are well documented provide encouraging evidence of the explanatory power of Mendelian randomization and are described. The limitations of the approach include confounding by polymorphisms in linkage disequilibrium with the polymorphism under study, that polymorphisms may have several phenotypic effects associated with disease, the lack of suitable polymorphisms for studying modifiable exposures of interest, and canalization-the buffering of the effects of genetic variation during development. Nevertheless, Mendelian randomization provides new opportunities to test causality and demonstrates how investment in the human genome project may contribute to understanding and preventing the adverse effects on human health of modifiable exposures.
3,646 citations
TL;DR: An adaption of Egger regression can detect some violations of the standard instrumental variable assumptions, and provide an effect estimate which is not subject to these violations, and provides a sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the findings from a Mendelian randomization investigation.
Abstract: Background: The number of Mendelian randomization analyses including large numbers of genetic variants is rapidly increasing. This is due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies, and the desire to obtain more precise estimates of causal effects. However, some genetic variants may not be valid instrumental variables, in particular due to them having more than one proximal phenotypic correlate (pleiotropy).
Methods: We view Mendelian randomization with multiple instruments as a meta-analysis, and show that bias caused by pleiotropy can be regarded as analogous to small study bias. Causal estimates using each instrument can be displayed visually by a funnel plot to assess potential asymmetry. Egger regression, a tool to detect small study bias in meta-analysis, can be adapted to test for bias from pleiotropy, and the slope coefficient from Egger regression provides an estimate of the causal effect. Under the assumption that the association of each genetic variant with the exposure is independent of the pleiotropic effect of the variant (not via the exposure), Egger’s test gives a valid test of the null causal hypothesis and a consistent causal effect estimate even when all the genetic variants are invalid instrumental variables.
Results: We illustrate the use of this approach by re-analysing two published Mendelian randomization studies of the causal effect of height on lung function, and the causal effect of blood pressure on coronary artery disease risk. The conservative nature of this approach is illustrated with these examples.
Conclusions: An adaption of Egger regression (which we call MR-Egger) can detect some violations of the standard instrumental variable assumptions, and provide an effect estimate which is not subject to these violations. The approach provides a sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the findings from a Mendelian randomization investigation.
3,392 citations
TL;DR: This work introduces a technique—cross-trait LD Score regression—for estimating genetic correlation that requires only GWAS summary statistics and is not biased by sample overlap, and uses this method to estimate 276 genetic correlations among 24 traits.
Abstract: Identifying genetic correlations between complex traits and diseases can provide useful etiological insights and help prioritize likely causal relationships. The major challenges preventing estimation of genetic correlation from genome-wide association study (GWAS) data with current methods are the lack of availability of individual-level genotype data and widespread sample overlap among meta-analyses. We circumvent these difficulties by introducing a technique-cross-trait LD Score regression-for estimating genetic correlation that requires only GWAS summary statistics and is not biased by sample overlap. We use this method to estimate 276 genetic correlations among 24 traits. The results include genetic correlations between anorexia nervosa and schizophrenia, anorexia and obesity, and educational attainment and several diseases. These results highlight the power of genome-wide analyses, as there currently are no significantly associated SNPs for anorexia nervosa and only three for educational attainment.
2,993 citations
TL;DR: A novel weighted median estimator for combining data on multiple genetic variants into a single causal estimate is presented, which is consistent even when up to 50% of the information comes from invalid instrumental variables.
Abstract: Developments in genome-wide association studies and the increasing availability of summary genetic association data have made application of Mendelian randomization relatively straightforward. However, obtaining reliable results from a Mendelian randomization investigation remains problematic, as the conventional inverse-variance weighted method only gives consistent estimates if all of the genetic variants in the analysis are valid instrumental variables. We present a novel weighted median estimator for combining data on multiple genetic variants into a single causal estimate. This estimator is consistent even when up to 50% of the information comes from invalid instrumental variables. In a simulation analysis, it is shown to have better finite-sample Type 1 error rates than the inverse-variance weighted method, and is complementary to the recently proposed MR-Egger (Mendelian randomization-Egger) regression method. In analyses of the causal effects of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol on coronary artery disease risk, the inverse-variance weighted method suggests a causal effect of both lipid fractions, whereas the weighted median and MR-Egger regression methods suggest a null effect of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol that corresponds with the experimental evidence. Both median-based and MR-Egger regression methods should be considered as sensitivity analyses for Mendelian randomization investigations with multiple genetic variants.
2,959 citations