Abstract: Total transfer capability (TTC) is an effective indicator to evaluate the transmission limit of the interconnected systems. However, due to the large-scale wind power integration, operation conditions of a power system may change rapidly, yielding time-varying characteristics of the TTC. As a result, the traditional time-consuming transient stability constrained TTC model is unable to assess the online transmission margin. In this paper, we propose an online measurement-based TTC estimator using the nonparametric analytics. It consists of three major components: the probabilistic data generation, the composite feature selection, and the group Lasso regression-based training scheme. Specifically, we present a probabilistic data generation approach to take into account the uncertainties of the day-ahead generation scheduling and to reduce the number of redundant or infeasible data. Then, the composite feature selection is used to reduce the dimension of the generated data and identify the features which are highly correlated with TTC. The features are determined by the maximal information coefficients and nonparametric independence screening approach. Finally, these selected features are trained by the group Lasso regression to learn the correlation between the TTC and the online measurements. Once real-time measurements are available, the TTC can be assessed immediately through the learned correlation relationship. Extensive numerical results carried out on the modified New England 39-bus test system demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed TTC estimator for online applications.