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Development of a Rail Freight Demand Model for the National Rail Freight Infrastructure Capacity and Investment Study
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TLDR
In this paper, the authors developed and applied a rail freight demand model using the Surface Transportation Board?s Carload Waybill Sample and used it to forecast rail freight volumes and investment need estimates for the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission.Abstract:
Travel demand models have been widely used in forecasting highway volumes and using those volumes to identify highway investment needs. However, travel demand models have not been widely used in forecasting rail freight volumes and identifying rail freight investment needs. To prepare rail freight volumes and investment need estimates for the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission in a manner consistent with the Commission?s analysis for highways, a rail freight demand model was prepared. This paper describe development and application of this rail freight demand model. The paper describes first the development of rail tables using the Surface Transportation Board?s Carload Waybill Sample. It then describes the preparation of a rail network using the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) Railroad Network. It describes the assignment of the trip table to the network using network track distances as the impedance variable for paths built with an ?all-or-nothing? assignment. Lastly, the paper describes the estimation of track capacity based on the number of tracks, signal controls, and train mix; the determination of level of service (LOS) by comparing the assigned volume to the available capacity, the use of that LOS measure to evaluate rail improvements; and the estimation of total U.S. rail freight investment through 2035.read more
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