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Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.5194/TC-15-1215-2021

Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet

05 Mar 2021-The Cryosphere (Copernicus GmbH)-Vol. 15, Iss: 3, pp 1215-1236
Abstract: . The future surface mass balance (SMB) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the sea level rise. Most of recent Antarctic SMB projections were based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, new CMIP6 results have revealed a +1.3 ∘C higher mean Antarctic near-surface temperature than in CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century, enabling estimations of future SMB in warmer climates. Here, we investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings with an ensemble of four simulations performed with the polar regional climate model Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) forced by two CMIP5 and two CMIP6 models over 1981–2100. Statistical extrapolation enables us to expand our results to the whole CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Our results highlight a contrasting effect on the future grounded ice sheet and the ice shelves. The SMB over grounded ice is projected to increase as a response to stronger snowfall, only partly offset by enhanced meltwater run-off. This leads to a cumulated sea-level-rise mitigation (i.e. an increase in surface mass) of the grounded Antarctic surface by 5.1 ± 1.9 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) in CMIP5-RCP8.5 (Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and 6.3 ± 2.0 cm SLE in CMIP6-ssp585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585). Additionally, the CMIP6 low-emission ssp126 and intermediate-emission ssp245 scenarios project a stabilized surface mass gain, resulting in a lower mitigation to sea level rise than in ssp585. Over the ice shelves, the strong run-off increase associated with higher temperature is projected to decrease the SMB (more strongly in CMIP6-ssp585 compared to CMIP5-RCP8.5). Ice shelves are however predicted to have a close-to-present-equilibrium stable SMB under CMIP6 ssp126 and ssp245 scenarios. Future uncertainties are mainly due to the sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the timing of the projected warming. While ice shelves should remain at a close-to-equilibrium stable SMB under the Paris Agreement, MAR projects strong SMB decrease for an Antarctic near-surface warming above +2.5 ∘C compared to 1981–2010 mean temperature, limiting the warming range before potential irreversible damages on the ice shelves. Finally, our results reveal the existence of a potential threshold ( +7.5 ∘C ) that leads to a lower grounded-SMB increase. This however has to be confirmed in following studies using more extreme or longer future scenarios.

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Topics: Antarctic ice sheet (68%), Ice sheet (65%), Ice shelf (63%) ... show more
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12 results found


Open access
Katja Frieler1, Peter U. Clark2, Feng He2, Feng He3  +9 moreInstitutions (5)
01 Apr 2015-
Abstract: As the atmosphere warms it can hold more water so precipitation is expected to increase. This study uses palaeoclimate data and modelling results to investigate what this means for Antarctic mass balance and sea-level rise, as more snowfall will increase the water stored as ice on the continent.

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Topics: Atmosphere (55%), Precipitation (53%)

118 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.5194/TC-15-4315-2021
08 Sep 2021-The Cryosphere
Abstract: . Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is largely determined by precipitation over the continent and subject to regional climate variability related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and other climatic drivers at the large scale. Locally however, firn and snowpack processes are important in determining SMB and the total mass balance of Antarctica and global sea level. Here, we examine factors that influence Antarctic SMB and attempt to reconcile the outcome with estimates for total mass balance determined from the GRACE satellites. This is done by having the regional climate model HIRHAM5 forcing two versions of an offline subsurface model, to estimate Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) SMB from 1980 to 2017. The Lagrangian subsurface model estimates Antarctic SMB of 2473.5±114.4 Gt yr −1 , while the Eulerian subsurface model variant results in slightly higher modelled SMB of 2564.8±113.7 Gt yr −1 . The majority of this difference in modelled SMB is due to melt and refreezing over ice shelves and demonstrates the importance of firn modelling in areas with substantial melt. Both the Eulerian and the Lagrangian SMB estimates are within uncertainty ranges of each other and within the range of other SMB studies. However, the Lagrangian version has better statistics when modelling the densities. Further, analysis of the relationship between SMB in individual drainage basins and the SAM is carried out using a bootstrapping approach. This shows a robust relationship between SAM and SMB in half of the basins (13 out of 27). In general, when SAM is positive there is a lower SMB over the plateau and a higher SMB on the westerly side of the Antarctic Peninsula, and vice versa when the SAM is negative. Finally, we compare the modelled SMB to GRACE data by subtracting the solid ice discharge, and we find that there is a good agreement in East Antarctica but large disagreements over the Antarctic Peninsula. There is a large difference between published estimates of discharge that make it challenging to use mass reconciliation in evaluating SMB models on the basin scale.

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Topics: Antarctic ice sheet (55%), Firn (51%), Ice shelf (50%)

18 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1029/2020GL091733
Abstract: The future surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctic ice shelves has not been constrained with models of sufficient resolution and complexity. Here, we force the high‐resolution Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) with future simulations from four CMIP models to evaluate the likely effects on the SMB of warming of 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C above pre‐industrial temperatures. We find non‐linear growth in melt and runoff which causes SMB to become less positive with more pronounced warming. Consequently, Antarctic ice shelves may be more likely to contribute indirectly to sea level rise via hydrofracturing‐induced collapse, which facilitates accelerated glacial discharge. Using runoff and melt as indicators of ice shelf stability, we find that several Antarctic ice shelves (Larsen C, Wilkins, Pine Island and Shackleton) are vulnerable to disintegration at 4°C. Limiting 21st century warming to 2°C will halve the ice shelf area susceptible to hydrofracturing‐induced collapse compared to 4°C.

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Topics: Ice shelf (68%), Glacial period (50%)

5 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.5194/GMD-14-3487-2021
Abstract: . Drifting snow, or the wind-driven transport of snow particles originating from clouds and the surface below and above 2 m above ground and their concurrent sublimation, is a poorly documented process on the Antarctic ice sheet, which is inherently lacking in most climate models. Since drifting snow mostly results from erosion of surface particles, a comprehensive evaluation of this process in climate models requires a concurrent assessment of simulated drifting-snow transport and the surface mass balance (SMB). In this paper a new version of the drifting-snow scheme currently embedded in the regional climate model MAR (v3.11) is extensively described. Several important modifications relative to previous version have been implemented and include notably a parameterization for drifting-snow compaction of the uppermost snowpack layer, differentiated snow density at deposition between precipitation and drifting snow, and a rewrite of the threshold friction velocity above which snow erosion initiates. Model results at high resolution (10 km) over Adelie Land, East Antarctica, for the period 2004–2018 are presented and evaluated against available near-surface meteorological observations at half-hourly resolution and annual SMB estimates. The evaluation demonstrates that MAR resolves the local drifting-snow frequency and transport up to the scale of the drifting-snow event and captures the resulting observed climate and SMB variability, suggesting that this model version can be used for continent-wide applications.

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Topics: Snow (64%), Climate model (57%), Snowpack (56%) ... show more

4 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.5194/CP-17-1795-2021
Abstract: . Paleoclimate archives, such as high-resolution ice core records, provide a means to investigate long-term (multi-centennial) climate variability. Until recently, the Law Dome (Dome Summit South) ice core record remained one of few long-term high-resolution records in East Antarctica. A new ice core drilled in 2017/2018 at Mount Brown South, approximately 1000 km west of Law Dome, provides an additional high-resolution record that will likely span the last millennium in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. Here, we compare snowfall accumulation rates and sea salt concentrations in the upper portion (~21 m) of the Mount Brown South record, and an updated Law Dome record over the period 1975–2016. Annual sea salt concentrations from the Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger signal for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; in austral winter and spring, r = 0.521, p

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Topics: Ice core (65%), Paleoclimatology (55%)

3 Citations


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101 results found


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Abstract: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...

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Topics: Climate model (61%), Downscaling (59%), Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (59%) ... show more

10,809 Citations


Open access
31 Jan 1982-
Abstract: This paper is a revised version of Staff Working Paper 444 It reviews various studies which have provided a description of and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector It therefore covers both empirical and theoretical studies The discussion highlights the diversity in observed patterns among various farmers' classes as well as differences in results from different studies in different socio-economic environments, and reviews the attempts to rationalize such findings Special attention is given to the methodologies which are commonly used in studies of innovation adoption, and suggestions for improvements of such work through the use of appropriate economometric methods are provided The diversity of experiences with different innovations in different geographical and socio-cultural environments suggest that studies of adoption patterns should provide detailed information on attributes of the institutional, social and cultural setting and their interactions with economic factors These may be an important element in explaining conflicting experiences

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2,996 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1086/451461
Abstract: This paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector. The survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms (adoption/nonadoption) may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range. More attention needs to be given to the socio-cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred. The presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research, since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved. Furthermore, the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies. Finally, the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research.

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2,676 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1002/QJ.3803
Hans Hersbach1, Bill Bell1, Paul Berrisford1, Shoji Hirahara2  +39 moreInstitutions (4)

2,265 Citations


Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.5194/GMD-9-1937-2016
Abstract: . By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.

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2,156 Citations


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