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Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows About Future Earnings
TL;DR: The authors investigated whether stock prices reflect information about future earnings contained in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings, and found that stock prices act as if investors "fixate" on earnings, failing to fully reflect information in the accrued and uncounted components until it impacts future earnings.
Abstract: This paper investigates whether stock prices reflect information about future earnings contained in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings. The extent to which current earnings performance persists into the future is shown to depend on the relative magnitudes of the cash and accrual components of current earnings. However, stock prices are found to act as if investors "fixate" on earnings, failing to fully reflect information in the accrual and cash flow components of current earnings until it impacts future earnings.
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28 Jun 2015
TL;DR: In this paper, the cross-sectional properties of return forecasts derived from Fama-MacBeth regressions were studied, and the authors found that the forecasts vary substantially across stocks and have strong predictive power for actual returns.
Abstract: This paper studies the cross-sectional properties of return forecasts derived from Fama-MacBeth regressions. These forecasts mimic how an investor could, in real time, combine many firm characteristics to obtain a composite estimate of a stockâs expected return. Empirically, the forecasts vary substantially across stocks and have strong predictive power for actual returns. For example, using ten-year rolling estimates of Fama- MacBeth slopes and a cross-sectional model with 15 firm characteristics (all based on low-frequency data), the expected-return estimates have a cross-sectional standard deviation of 0.87% monthly and a predictive slope for future monthly returns of 0.74, with a standard error of 0.07.
4,406 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a new measure of one aspect of the quality of accruals and earnings, which is the residual from firm-specific regressions of changes in working capital on past, present, and future operating cash flow realizations.
Abstract: This paper suggests a new measure of one aspect of the quality of accruals and earnings. The major benefit of accruals is to reduce timing and mismatching problems in the underlying cash flows. However, accruals accomplish this benefit at the cost of making assumptions and estimates about future cash flows, which implies that accruals include errors of estimation or noise. Since estimation noise reduces the beneficial role of accruals, this study suggests that the quality of accruals and earnings is decreasing in the magnitude of estimation noise in accruals. More specifically, we develop a simple model of working capital accruals where accruals correct the timing problems in cash flows at the cost of including errors in estimation. Based on the model, we derive an empirical measure of accrual quality as the residual from firm-specific regressions of changes in working capital on past, present, and future operating cash flow realizations. The study concludes with two empirical applications that illustrate the usefulness of our measure of accrual quality. First, we explore the relation of accrual quality to economic fundamentals. We find that accrual quality is negatively related to the magnitude of total accruals, length of the operating cycle, and the standard deviation of sales, cash flows, and earnings, while it is positively related to firm size. Second, we show a strong positive relation between accrual quality and earnings persistence.
3,698 citations
Book•
01 Jul 2002TL;DR: In this article, a review is presented of the book "Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman".
Abstract: A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.
3,642 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap, including performance errors, computational limitations, the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and a different construal of the task by the subject.
Abstract: Much research in the last two decades has demon- strated that human responses deviate from the performance deemed normative according to various models of decision mak- ing and rational judgment (e.g., the basic axioms of utility theory). This gap between the normative and the descriptive can be inter- preted as indicating systematic irrationalities in human cognition. However, four alternative interpretations preserve the assumption that human behavior and cognition is largely rational. These posit that the gap is due to (1) performance errors, (2) computational limitations, (3) the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and (4) a different construal of the task by the subject. In the debates about the viability of these alternative explanations, attention has been focused too narrowly on the modal response. In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, we have examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap. Performance er- rors are a minor factor in the gap; computational limitations un- derlie non-normative responding on several tasks, particularly those that involve some type of cognitive decontextualization. Un- expected patterns of covariance can suggest when the wrong norm is being applied to a task or when an alternative construal of the task should be considered appropriate.
3,068 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate whether investors price accruals quality, our proxy for the information risk associated with earnings, and find that poorer AQ is associated with larger costs of debt and equity.
2,814 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks was tested using a two-parameter portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two parameter portfolio model.
Abstract: This paper tests the relationship between average return and risk for New York Stock Exchange common stocks. The theoretical basis of the tests is the "two-parameter" portfolio model and models of market equilibrium derived from the two-parameter portfolio model. We cannot reject the hypothesis of these models that the pricing of common stocks reflects the attempts of risk-averse investors to hold portfolios that are "efficient" in terms of expected value and dispersion of return. Moreover, the observed "fair game" properties of the coefficients and residuals of the risk-return regressions are consistent with an "efficient capital market"--that is, a market where prices of securities
14,171 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate alternative models for detecting earnings management by comparing the specification and power of commonly used test statistics across the measures of discretionary accruals generated by each model.
Abstract: This paper evaluates alternative models for detecting earnings management. The paper restricts itself to models that assume the construct being managed is discretionary accruals, since such models are commonly used in the extant accounting literature. Existing models range from simple models in which discretionary accruals are measured as total accruals, to more sophisticated models that separate total accruals into a discretionary and a non-discretionary component. Prior to this paper, there had been no systematic evidence bearing on the relative performance of these alternative models at detecting earnings management. This paper evaluates the relative performance of the competing models by comparing the specification and power of commonly used test statistics across the measures of discretionary accruals generated by each model. The specification of the test statistics is evaluated by examining the frequency with which they generate type I errors for a random sample of firm-years and for samples of firm-years with extreme financial performance. We focus on samples with extreme financial performance because the stimuli investigated in previous research are frequently correlated with financial performance. The first sample of firms are targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly overstating annual earnings and the second sample is created by artificially introducing earnings management into a random sample of firms.
6,217 citations
TL;DR: In this article, it is argued that income numbers cannot be defined substantively, that they lack "meaning" and are therefore of doubtful utility, and the argument stems in part from the patchwork development of account-based theories.
Abstract: Accounting theorists have generally evaluated the usefulness of accounting practices by the extent of their agreement with a particular analytic model. The model may consist of only a few assertions or it may be a rigorously developed argument. In each case, the method of evaluation has been to compare existing practices with the more preferable practices implied by the model or with some standard which the model implies all practices should possess. The shortcoming of this method is that it ignores a significant source of knowledge of the world, namely, the extent to which the predictions of the model conform to observed behavior. It is not enough to defend an analytical inquiry on the basis that its assumptions are empirically supportable, for how is one to know that a theory embraces all of the relevant supportable assumptions? And how does one explain the predictive powers of propositions which are based on unverifiable assumptions such as the maximization of utility functions? Further, how is one to resolve differences between propositions which arise from considering different aspects of the world? The limitations of a completely analytical approach to usefulness are illustrated by the argument that income numbers cannot be defined substantively, that they lack "meaning" and are therefore of doubtful utility.' The argument stems in part from the patchwork development of account-
6,043 citations
TL;DR: The authors investigates circumstances under which accruals are predicted to improve earnings' ability to measure firm performance, as reflected in stock returns, and the results of empirical tests are consistent with these predictions.
2,892 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the earnings-related disclosures made by a random sample of 93 NASDAQ firms during 1981-90 and found that good news disclosures tend to be point or range estimates of annual earnings-per-share (EPS), while bad news disclosures tended to be qualitative statements about the current quarter's earnings; the (unconditional) stock price response to bad
Abstract: This paper provides evidence on corporate voluntary disclosure practices through an examination of the earnings-related disclosures made by a random sample of 93 NASDAQ firms during 1981-90.' I find that, consistent with prior studies, earnings-related voluntary disclosures occur infrequently (on average, one disclosure for every ten quarterly earnings announcements); good news disclosures tend to be point or range estimates of annual earnings-per-share (EPS), while bad news disclosures tend to be qualitative statements about the current quarter's earnings; the (unconditional) stock price response to bad
2,438 citations