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Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the impact of trade and foreign direct investment on the productivity of domestic firms in the manufacturing sector in the country of Lithuania and found that a 10 percent increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors is associated with a 0.38 percent rise in output of each domestic firm in the supplying industry.
Abstract: Many countries compete against one another in attracting foreign investors by offering ever more generous incentive packages and justifying their actions with the productivity gains that are expected to accrue to domestic producers from knowledge externalities generated by foreign affiliates. Despite this being hugely important to public policy choices, there is little conclusive evidence indicating that domestic firms benefit from foreign presence in their sector. It is possible, though, that researchers have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in the wrong place. Multinationals have an incentive to prevent information leakage that would enhance the performance of their local competitors in the same industry but at the same time may want to transfer knowledge to their local suppliers in other sectors. Spillovers from FDI may be, therefore, more likely to take place through backward linkages - that is, contacts between domestic suppliers of intermediate inputs and their multinational clients - and thus would not have been captured by the earlier literature. This paper focuses on the understudied issue of FDI spillovers through backward linkages and goes beyond existing studies by shedding some light on factors driving this phenomenon. It also improves over existing literature by addressing several econometric problems that may have biased the results of earlier research. Based on a firm-level panel data set from Lithuania, the estimation results are consistent with the existence of productivity spillovers. They suggest that a 10 percent increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors is associated with 0.38 percent rise in output of each domestic firm in the supplying industry. The data indicate that these spillovers are not restricted geographically, since local firms seem to benefit from the operation of downstream foreign affiliates on their own, as well as in other regions. The results further show that greater productivity benefits are associated with domestic-market, rather than export-oriented, foreign affiliates. But no difference is detected between the effects of fully-owned foreign firms and those with joint domestic and foreign ownership. The findings of a positive correlation between productivity growth of domestic firms and the increase in multinational presence in downstream sectors should not, however, be interpreted as a call for subsidizing FDI. These results are consistent with the existence of knowledge spillovers from foreign affiliates to their local suppliers, but they may also be a result of increased competition in upstream sectors. While the former case would call for offering FDI incentive packages, it would not be the optimal policy in the latter. Certainly more research is needed to disentangle these two effects. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the contribution of trade and foreign direct investment to technology transfer.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation of the empirical evidence on productivity, wages and exports spillovers in developing, developed and transitional economies is presented. But, although theory can identify a range of possible spillover channels, robust empirical support for positive spillovers is hard to find.
Abstract: Many governments offer significant inducements to attract inward investment, motivated by the expectation of spillover benefits. This paper begins by reviewing possible sources of spillovers. It then provides a comprehensive evaluation of the empirical evidence on productivity, wages and exports spillovers in developing, developed and transitional economies. Although theory can identify a range of possible spillover channels, robust empirical support for positive spillovers is hard to find. The reasons for this are explored and the paper concludes with a review of policy aspects.
1,508 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the empirical evidence on productivity, wage, and export spillovers in developing, developed, and transition economies and conclude that robust empirical support for positive spillovers is at best mixed.
Abstract: Governments the world over offer significant inducements to attract investment, motivated by the expectation of spillover benefits to augment the primary benefits of a boost to national income from new investment. There are several possible sources of induced spillovers from foreign direct investment. This article evaluates the empirical evidence on productivity, wage, and export spillovers in developing, developed, and transition economies. Although theory can identify a range of possible spillover channels, robust empirical support for positive spillovers is at best mixed. The article explores the reasons and concludes with a review of policy aspects.
1,367 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity were investigated in Indonesian manufacturing census data from 1991 to 2001, which includes plant level information on imported inputs, and the results showed that the largest gains arise from reducing input tariffs.
Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods relative to those on intermediate inputs. Lower output tariffs can produce productivity gains by inducing tougher import competition whereas cheaper imported inputs can raise productivity via learning, variety or quality effects. We use Indonesian manufacturing census data from 1991 to 2001, which includes plant level information on imported inputs. The results show that the largest gains arise from reducing input tariffs. A 10 percentage point fall in output tariffs increases productivity by about 1%, whereas an equivalent fall in input tariffs leads to a 3% productivity gain for all firms and an 11% productivity gain for importing firms.
1,122 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, multinational firms operating in emerging markets transfer technology to local suppliers to increase their productivity and to lower input prices to avoid hold-up by any single supplier, the foreign firm must make the technology widely available This technology diffusion induces entry and more competition which lowers prices in the supply market.
877 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors aim to motivate more international business scholars to engage in research on positive and negative spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging economy societies by taking the individual firms as starting point to enhance understanding of the interaction between MNEs and the local environment.
Abstract: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) play a pivotal role in the development of many emerging economies. In consequence, they became the focus of scholarly research by economists and policy analysts. In contrast, international business scholars have been comparatively uninterested in analysing this role of MNEs. Yet they could make important contributions to these debates. First, studies taking the individual firms as starting point would enhance understanding of the interaction between MNEs and the local environment. Second, theories and research methodologies developed in international business research could provide new insights into the dynamics of MNEs in emerging economies. The objective of this paper is to motivate more international business scholars to engage in research on positive and negative spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging economy societies. To advance this research agenda, scholars need to analyse the specific activities and capabilities of the firms involved, and the impact of FDI on the broader social and environmental context. For management, this agenda raises the ethical question: To what extent ought businesses to care about their local stakeholders?
782 citations
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01 Jan 1983
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a survey of the use of truncated distributions in the context of unions and wages, and some results on truncated distribution Bibliography Index and references therein.
Abstract: Preface 1. Introduction 2. Discrete regression models 3. Probabilistic-choice models 4. Discriminant analysis 5. Multivariate qualitative variables 6. Censored and truncated regression models 7. Simultaneous-equations models with truncated and censored variables 8. Two-stage estimation methods 9. Models with self-selectivity 10. Disequilibrium models 11. Some applications: unions and wages Appendix: Some results on truncated distributions Bibliography Index.
13,828 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed an estimation algorithm that takes into account the relationship between productivity on the one hand, and both input demand and survival on the other, guided by a dynamic equilibrium model that generates the exit and input demand equations needed to correct for the simultaneity and selection problems.
Abstract: Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring of the telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. We estimate the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry and then use those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant-level productivity over this period. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. Since firms choices on whether to liquidate and the on the quantities of inputs demanded should they continue depend on their productivity, we develop an estimation algorithm that takes into account the relationship between productivity on the one hand, and both input demand and survival on the other. The algorithm is guided by a dynamic equilibrium model that generates the exit and input demand equations needed to correct for the simultaneity and selection problems. A fully parametric estimation algorithm based on these decision rules would be both computationally burdensome and require a host of auxiliary assumptions. So we develop a semiparametric technique which is both consistent with a quite general version of the theoretical framework and easy to use. The algorithm produces markedly different estimates of both production function parameters and of productivity movements than traditional estimation procedures. We find an increase in the rate of industry productivity growth after deregulation. This in spite of the fact that there was no increase in the average of the plants' rates of productivity growth, and there was actually a fall in our index of the efficiency of the allocation of variable factors conditional on the existing distribution of fixed factors. Deregulation was, however, followed by a reallocation of capital towards more productive establishments (by a down sizing, often shutdown, of unproductive plants and by a disproportionate growth of productive establishments) which more than offset the other factors' negative impacts on aggregate productivity.
4,380 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical focus is on estimating the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry, and then using those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant-level productivity.
Abstract: Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring of the telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. Our empirical focus is on estimating the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry, and then using those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant-level productivity. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. Firms' choices on whether to liquidate, and on input quantities should they continue, depended on their productivity. This generates a selection and a simultaneity problem when estimating production functions. Our theoretical focus is on providing an estimation algorithm which takes explicit account of these issues. We find that our algorithm produces markedly different and more plausible estimates of production function coefficients than do traditional estimation procedures. Using our estimates we find increases in the rate of aggregate productivity growth after deregulation. Since we have plant-level data we can introduce indices which delve deeper into how this productivity growth occurred. These indices indicate that productivity increases were primarily a result of a reallocation of capital towards more productive establishments.
3,657 citations
TL;DR: The authors illustrates the danger of spurious regression from this kind of misspecification, using as an example a wage regression estimated on data for individual workers that includes in the specification aggregate regressors for characteristics of geographical states.
Abstract: Many economic researchers have attempted to measure the effect of aggregate market or public policy variables on micro units by merging aggregate data with micro observations by industry, occupation, or geographical location, then using multiple regression or similar statistical models to measure the effect of the aggregate variable on the micro units. The methods are usually based upon the assumption of independent disturbances, which is typically not appropriate for data from populations with grouped structure. Incorrectly using ordinary least squares can lead to standard errors that are seriously biased downward. This note illustrates the danger of spurious regression from this kind of misspecification, using as an example a wage regression estimated on data for individual workers that includes in the specification aggregate regressors for characteristics of geographical states. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.
2,859 citations
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Incr..." refers background in this paper
...While the knowledge spillovers present a rationale for government action to subsidize FDI inflows, this is not the case when the improved productivity of local firms is due to increased competition, as inducing greater competition may be achieved by other means (import liberalization, anti-trust…...
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TL;DR: This paper found that foreign equity participation is positively correlated with plant productivity (the "own-plant" effect), but this relationship is only robust for small enterprises and that the gains from foreign investment appear to be entirely captured by joint ventures.
Abstract: Governments often promote inward foreign investment to encourage technology 'spillovers' from foreign to domestic firms. Using panel data on Venezuelan plants, the authors find that foreign equity participation is positively correlated with plant productivity (the 'own-plant' effect), but this relationship is only robust for small enterprises. They then test for spillovers from joint ventures to plants with no foreign investment. Foreign investment negatively affects the productivity of domestically owned plants. The net impact of foreign investment, taking into account these two offsetting effects, is quite small. The gains from foreign investment appear to be entirely captured by joint ventures.
2,799 citations
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Incr..." refers background or methods or result in this paper
...'5 This definition is analogous to that in Aitken et al. (1999) who use employment as weights. Blalock (2001) and Schoors et al. (2001) employ output weights but do not take into account the share of foreign equity, treating total output of firms with at least ten percent foreign equity as foreign. 16 Since relationships between sectors may change over time (although a radical change is unlikely), ideally we would like to use multiple input-output matrices. Unfortunately, input-output matrices for later years are unavailable. Similarly, while we would prefer to use a matrix excluding imnports, it is not available. Thus, our results should be interpreted keeping these two caveats in mind. " This approach is followed by Schoors et al. (2001) but not by Blalock (2001). Including the share of intermediates supplied within the sector in the Backward measure (as was done in the earlier version of this paper) does not change the conclusions with respect to the correlation between firm productivity and foreign presence in the sourcing sectors....
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...'5 This definition is analogous to that in Aitken et al. (1999) who use employment as weights. Blalock (2001) and Schoors et al. (2001) employ output weights but do not take into account the share of foreign equity, treating total output of firms with at least ten percent foreign equity as foreign. 16 Since relationships between sectors may change over time (although a radical change is unlikely), ideally we would like to use multiple input-output matrices. Unfortunately, input-output matrices for later years are unavailable. Similarly, while we would prefer to use a matrix excluding imnports, it is not available. Thus, our results should be interpreted keeping these two caveats in mind. " This approach is followed by Schoors et al. (2001) but not by Blalock (2001)....
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...'5 This definition is analogous to that in Aitken et al. (1999) who use employment as weights. Blalock (2001) and Schoors et al. (2001) employ output weights but do not take into account the share of foreign equity, treating total output of firms with at least ten percent foreign equity as foreign....
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...'5 This definition is analogous to that in Aitken et al. (1999) who use employment as weights....
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...'5 This definition is analogous to that in Aitken et al. (1999) who use employment as weights. Blalock (2001) and Schoors et al....
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