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Dynamiques de moyen et long terme des cours des matières premières : les enjeux pour le développement dans les pays africains producteurs de coton
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Abstract:
Cette these analyse les enjeux du developpement economique lies aux dynamiques des cours des matieres premieres en general et ceux du coton en particulier. Traditionnellement, les travaux s’inscrivant dans une optique de long terme questionnent la pertinence des specialisations primaires des PMA. A moyen terme l’interet porte davantage sur l’instabilite dont les consequences sont d’autant plus importantes que la dependance des pays a l’exportation de tels produits est forte. Les enjeux s’articulent alors autour des modalites de regulation des marches, du choix d'outils (publics ou marchands) pour la gestion des incertitudes, le tout dependant de l’apprehension de l’instabilite comme un phenomene endogene ou exogene. Dans un contexte nouveau marque par l’affirmation d’oligopoles de firmes, la segmentation du processus productif mondial, et la financiarisation des marches de matieres premieres, nous proposons un cadre analytique permettant d’aborder differemment ces problematiques. Nos travaux montrent d’abord comment les approches du type chaines globales de valeur peuvent etre mobilisees pour mieux orienter les strategies commerciales / industrielles des PMA. S’appuyant sur la notion de rationalite limitee dans le cadre de modeles de comportements heterogenes, ils prouvent ensuite l’existence d’une forte composante endogene dans l’instabilite et par la meme, l'inefficacite des seuls outils marchands. Au final, pour les pays africains producteurs de coton, il apparait qu’il reste possible de mettre ce produit au service d’une strategie globale de developpement. Cela passe par le recours a des mecanismes hybrides de gestion de l’instabilite, combine au renforcement des dynamiques de cooperation transfrontalieres en vue d’une structuration de chaines regionales de valeur.read more
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