Earlier springs decrease peak summer productivity in North American boreal forests
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed nearly three decades (1982?2008) of observational records and derived products, including satellite microwave and optical imagery as well as upscaled ecosystem flux observations, to better understand how shifts in seasonality impact hydrology and productivity in the North American boreal forests.
Abstract: In the northern high latitudes, alternative hypotheses with regards to how warming-related shifts in seasonality influence ecosystem productivity exist. Increased plant growth associated with a longer growing season may enhance ecosystem productivity, but shifts to earlier springs may also negatively influence soil moisture status and productivity during the peak of the growing season. Here, we analyzed nearly three decades (1982?2008) of observational records and derived products, including satellite microwave and optical imagery as well as upscaled ecosystem flux observations, to better understand how shifts in seasonality impact hydrology and productivity in the North American boreal forests. We identified a dominant adverse influence of earlier springs on peak summer forest greenness, actual evapotranspiration and productivity at interannual time scales across the drier western and central sections of the North American boreal forests. In the vast regions where this spring onset mechanism operates, ecosystem productivity gains from earlier springs during the early portion of the growing season are effectively cancelled through corresponding losses in the later portion. Our results also indicate that recent decadal shifts towards earlier springs and associated drying in the midst of the growing season over western North American boreal forests may have contributed to the reported declines in summer productivity and increases in tree mortality and fire activity. With projections of accelerated northern high-latitude warming and associated shifts to earlier springs, persistent soil moisture deficits in peak summer may be an effective mechanism for regional-scale boreal forest dieback through their strong influence on productivity, tree mortality and disturbance dynamics.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed interannual relationships in boreal forest greening and climate over the last three decades using newly available satellite vegetation data and found that due to continued summer warming in the absence of sustained increases in precipitation, a turning point has been reached around the mid-1990s that shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer and drier regime.
Abstract: Terrestrial ecosystems in the northern high latitudes are currently experiencing drastic warming, and recent studies suggest that boreal forests may be increasingly vulnerable to warming-related factors, including temperature-induced drought stress as well as shifts in fire regimes and insect outbreaks. Here we analyze interannual relationships in boreal forest greening and climate over the last three decades using newly available satellite vegetation data. Our results suggest that due to continued summer warming in the absence of sustained increases in precipitation, a turning point has been reached around the mid-1990s that shifted western central Eurasian boreal forests into a warmer and drier regime. This may be the leading cause for the emergence of large-scale negative correlations between summer temperatures and forest greenness. If such a regime shift would be sustained, the dieback of the boreal forest induced by heat and drought stress as predicted by vegetation models may proceed more rapidly than anticipated.
100 citations
Cites background from "Earlier springs decrease peak summe..."
...…boreal forests, shifts to earlier springs (associated with spring warming) are strongly linked to anomalously low-peak summer productivity, whereby early spring run off and longer evaporative periods lead to lower levels of available moisture later in the growing season [Buermann et al., 2013]....
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TL;DR: Investigation of links between warming and changes in available soil moisture and summer vegetation photosynthetic activity at northern latitudes based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) since 1982 suggests changes in snow accumulation and melt are likely to play a significant role in modulating regional ecosystem responses to the projected warming and increase in evapotranspiration demand during the coming decades.
Abstract: Recent warming has stimulated the productivity of boreal and Arctic vegetation by reducing temperature limitations. However, several studies have hypothesized that warming may have also increased moisture limitations because of intensified summer drought severity. Establishing the connections between warming and drought stress has been difficult because soil moisture observations are scarce. Here we use recently developed gridded datasets of moisture variability to investigate the links between warming and changes in available soil moisture and summer vegetation photosynthetic activity at northern latitudes (greater than 45N) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) since 1982. Moisture and temperature exert a significant influence on the inter-annual variability of summer NDVI over about 29% (mean r(sup 2) = 0.29 +/ 0.16) and 43% (mean r(sup 2 = 0.25 +/- 0.12) of the northern vegetated land, respectively. Rapid summer warming since the late 1980s (approximately 0.7deg C) has increased evapotranspiration demand and consequently summer drought severity, but contrary to earlier suggestions it has not changed the dominant climate controls of NDVI over time. Furthermore, changes in snow dynamics (accumulation and melting) appear to be more important than increased evaporative demand in controlling changes in summer soil moisture availability and NDVI in moisture-sensitive regions of the boreal forest. In boreal North America, forest NDVI declines are more consistent with reduced snowpack rather than with temperature-induced increases in evaporative demand as suggested in earlier studies. Moreover, summer NDVI variability over about 28% of the northern vegetated land is not significantly associated with moisture or temperature variability, yet most of this land shows increasing NDVI trends. These results suggest that changes in snow accumulation and melt, together with other possibly non-climatic factors are likely to play a significant role in modulating regional ecosystem responses to the projected warming and increase in evapotranspiration demand during the coming decades.
93 citations
Cites background from "Earlier springs decrease peak summe..."
...central sections of the North American boreal forests [35]....
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...the spring and thus accelerating seasonal soil moisture depletion [10,35]....
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...A positive association has also been observed between deeper snowpack and summer NDVI in central Siberia and parts of North America [34,35]....
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TL;DR: In this article, the landscape freeze-thaw signal determined from satellite microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations has been widely used to define frozen temperature controls on land surface water mobility and ecological processes.
Abstract: . The landscape freeze–thaw (FT) signal determined from satellite microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations has been widely used to define frozen temperature controls on land surface water mobility and ecological processes. Calibrated 37 GHz Tb retrievals from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), and SSM/I Sounder (SSMIS) were used to produce a consistent and continuous global daily data record of landscape FT status at 25 km grid cell resolution. The resulting FT Earth system data record (FT-ESDR) is derived from a refined classification algorithm and extends over a larger domain and longer period (1979–2014) than prior FT-ESDR releases. The global domain encompasses all land areas affected by seasonal frozen temperatures, including urban, snow- and ice-dominant and barren land, which were not represented by prior FT-ESDR versions. The FT retrieval is obtained using a modified seasonal threshold algorithm (MSTA) that classifies daily Tb variations in relation to grid-cell-wise FT thresholds calibrated using surface air temperature data from model reanalysis. The resulting FT record shows respective mean annual spatial classification accuracies of 90.3 and 84.3 % for evening (PM) and morning (AM) overpass retrievals relative to global weather station measurements. Detailed data quality metrics are derived characterizing the effects of sub-grid-scale open water and terrain heterogeneity, as well as algorithm uncertainties on FT classification accuracy. The FT-ESDR results are also verified against other independent cryospheric data, including in situ lake and river ice phenology, and satellite observations of Greenland surface melt. The expanded FT-ESDR enables new investigations encompassing snow- and ice-dominant land areas, while the longer record and favorable accuracy allow for refined global change assessments that can better distinguish transient weather extremes, landscape phenological shifts, and climate anomalies from longer-term trends extending over multiple decades. The dataset is freely available online ( doi:10.5067/MEASURES/CRYOSPHERE/nsidc-0477.003 ).
89 citations
Cites background from "Earlier springs decrease peak summe..."
...…climate warming (Kim et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2015), analyzing spring thaw- and frostrelated impacts on vegetation phenology and productivity (Buermann et al., 2013; Kim et al., 2014a, b), and defining a potential growing season climate indicator for the US National Climate Assessment…...
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01 Apr 2017
TL;DR: Both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as the understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.
Abstract: The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr-1 . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.
84 citations
Cites background from "Earlier springs decrease peak summe..."
...(2) Earlier spring might lead to soil water loss in the early part of growing season, thereby increasing the prevalence of drought during summer (Buermann et al., 2013) that may subsequently result in earlier leaf senes- cence....
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...(2) Earlier spring might lead to soil water loss in the early part of growing season, thereby increasing the prevalence of drought during summer (Buermann et al., 2013) that may subsequently result in earlier leaf senescence....
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TL;DR: In this article, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency.
Abstract: Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events.
84 citations
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a historical overview of climate change science, including changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing, as well as changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers -- Technical summary -- Historical overview of climate change science -- Changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing -- Observations: atmospheric surface and climate change -- Observations: changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground -- Observations: ocean climate change and sea level -- Paleoclimate -- Coupling between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry -- Climate models and their evaluation -- Understanding and attributing climate change -- Global climate projections -- Regional climate projections -- Annex I: Glossary -- Annex II: Contributors to the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex III: Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex IV: Acronyms.
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United States Geological Survey1, University of Arizona2, University of Batna3, Oregon State University4, Los Alamos National Laboratory5, Centre national de la recherche scientifique6, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research7, Natural Resources Canada8, University of California, Berkeley9, University of Granada10, Northern Research Institute11, Forest Research Institute12, Food and Agriculture Organization13, University of Montana14, Northern Arizona University15
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress and identify key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system.
5,811 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a new climatic drought index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), is proposed, which combines multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment.
Abstract: The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an...
5,088 citations