scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal ArticleDOI

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

TL;DR: Work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
Abstract: Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

Content maybe subject to copyright    Report

Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
13 Feb 2015-Science
TL;DR: An updated and extended analysis of the planetary boundary (PB) framework and identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the Earth system (ES) is likely to remain low—a “safe operating space” for global societal development.
Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

7,169 citations


Cites background from "Early-warning signals for critical ..."

  • ...Examples include “critical slowing down” in a process (22), increasing variance (23), and flickering between states of the system (24–26)....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a synthesis of past research on the role of soil moisture for the climate system, based both on modelling and observational studies, focusing on soil moisture-temperature and soil moistureprecipitation feedbacks, and their possible modifications with climate change.

3,402 citations


Cites background from "Early-warning signals for critical ..."

  • ...Note that the links between soil moisture regime shifts and corresponding impacts on climate variability suggest some parallels with existing theory regarding critical transitions in complex dynamical systems (Scheffer et al., 2009)....

    [...]

01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: This paper critically analyzes the deployment issues of best three proposals considering trade-off between security functions and performance overhead and concludes that none of them is deployable in practical scenario.
Abstract: Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the protocol backing the core routing decisions on the Internet. It maintains a table of IP networks or 'prefixes' which designate network reachability among autonomous systems (AS). Point of concern in BGP is its lack of effective security measures which makes Internet vulnerable to different forms of attacks. Many solutions have been proposed till date to combat BGP security issues but not a single one is deployable in practical scenario. Any security proposal with optimal solution should offer adequate security functions, performance overhead and deployment cost. This paper critically analyzes the deployment issues of best three proposals considering trade-off between security functions and performance overhead.

2,691 citations

Book Chapter
01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Abstract: This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated.

2,253 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An examines methodologies suited to identify such symptom networks and discusses network analysis techniques that may be used to extract clinically and scientifically useful information from such networks (e.g., which symptom is most central in a person's network).
Abstract: In network approaches to psychopathology, disorders result from the causal interplay between symptoms (e.g., worry → insomnia → fatigue), possibly involving feedback loops (e.g., a person may engage in substance abuse to forget the problems that arose due to substance abuse). The present review examines methodologies suited to identify such symptom networks and discusses network analysis techniques that may be used to extract clinically and scientifically useful information from such networks (e.g., which symptom is most central in a person's network). The authors also show how network analysis techniques may be used to construct simulation models that mimic symptom dynamics. Network approaches naturally explain the limited success of traditional research strategies, which are typically based on the idea that symptoms are manifestations of some common underlying factor, while offering promising methodological alternatives. In addition, these techniques may offer possibilities to guide and evaluate therape...

1,824 citations

References
More filters
Book
01 Jan 1970
TL;DR: In this article, a complete revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book that has been the model for most books on the topic written since 1970 is presented, focusing on practical techniques throughout, rather than a rigorous mathematical treatment of the subject.
Abstract: From the Publisher: This is a complete revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book that has been the model for most books on the topic written since 1970. It focuses on practical techniques throughout, rather than a rigorous mathematical treatment of the subject. It explores the building of stochastic (statistical) models for time series and their use in important areas of application —forecasting, model specification, estimation, and checking, transfer function modeling of dynamic relationships, modeling the effects of intervention events, and process control. Features sections on: recently developed methods for model specification, such as canonical correlation analysis and the use of model selection criteria; results on testing for unit root nonstationarity in ARIMA processes; the state space representation of ARMA models and its use for likelihood estimation and forecasting; score test for model checking; and deterministic components and structural components in time series models and their estimation based on regression-time series model methods.

19,748 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book explores the building of stochastic models for time series and their use in important areas of application —forecasting, model specification, estimation, and checking, transfer function modeling of dynamic relationships, modeling the effects of intervention events, and process control.
Abstract: From the Publisher: This is a complete revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book that has been the model for most books on the topic written since 1970. It focuses on practical techniques throughout, rather than a rigorous mathematical treatment of the subject. It explores the building of stochastic (statistical) models for time series and their use in important areas of application —forecasting, model specification, estimation, and checking, transfer function modeling of dynamic relationships, modeling the effects of intervention events, and process control. Features sections on: recently developed methods for model specification, such as canonical correlation analysis and the use of model selection criteria; results on testing for unit root nonstationarity in ARIMA processes; the state space representation of ARMA models and its use for likelihood estimation and forecasting; score test for model checking; and deterministic components and structural components in time series models and their estimation based on regression-time series model methods.

12,650 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, it is suggested that a system of chemical substances, called morphogens, reacting together and diffusing through a tissue, is adequate to account for the main phenomena of morphogenesis.
Abstract: It is suggested that a system of chemical substances, called morphogens, reacting together and diffusing through a tissue, is adequate to account for the main phenomena of morphogenesis. Such a system, although it may originally be quite homogeneous, may later develop a pattern or structure due to an instability of the homogeneous equilibrium, which is triggered off by random disturbances. Such reaction-diffusion systems are considered in some detail in the case of an isolated ring of cells, a mathematically convenient, though biologically unusual system. The investigation is chiefly concerned with the onset of instability. It is found that there are six essentially different forms which this may take. In the most interesting form stationary waves appear on the ring. It is suggested that this might account, for instance, for the tentacle patterns on Hydra and for whorled leaves. A system of reactions and diffusion on a sphere is also considered. Such a system appears to account for gastrulation. Another reaction system in two dimensions gives rise to patterns reminiscent of dappling. It is also suggested that stationary waves in two dimensions could account for the phenomena of phyllotaxis. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a possible mechanism by which the genes of a zygote may determine the anatomical structure of the resulting organism. The theory does not make any new hypotheses; it merely suggests that certain well-known physical laws are sufficient to account for many of the facts. The full understanding of the paper requires a good knowledge of mathematics, some biology, and some elementary chemistry. Since readers cannot be expected to be experts in all of these subjects, a number of elementary facts are explained, which can be found in text-books, but whose omission would make the paper difficult reading.

9,015 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 May 1971

7,355 citations

Book
01 Jan 2000
TL;DR: Requirements for the effective use of system dynamics are discussed and a successful application to a difficult business issue is illustrated.
Abstract: Introduction Part I. Perspective and Process 1. Learning In and About Complex Systems 2. System Dynamics In Action 3. The Modeling Process 4. Structure and Behavior of Dynamic Systems Part II. Tools for Systems Thinking 5. Causal Loop Diagrams 6. Stocks and Flows 7. Dynamics of Stocks and Flows 8. Closing the Loop: Dynamics of Simple Structures Part III. The Dynamics of Growth 9. S-Shaped Growth: Epidemics, Innovation Diffusion, and the Growth of New Products 10. Path Dependence and Positive Feedback Part IV. Tools for Modeling Dynamic Systems 11. Delays 12. Coflows and Aging Chains 13. Modeling Decision Making 14. Forming Non-linear Relationships Part V. Instability and Oscillation 15. Modeling Human Behavior: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations? 16. Forecasts and Fudge Factors: Modeling Expectation Formation 17. Supply Chains and the Origin of Oscillations 18. Managing Supply Chains in Manufacturing 19. The Labor Supply Chain and the Origin of Business Cycles 20. The Invisible Hand Sometimes Shakes: Commodity Cycles Part VI. Validation and Model Testing 21. Truth and Beauty Part VII. Commencement 22. Challenges for the Future Appendix A: Numerical Integration Appendix B: Noise References Index

6,808 citations