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Journal ArticleDOI

Economic development, weather shocks and child marriage in South Asia: A machine learning approach

01 Sep 2022-PLOS ONE-Vol. 17, Iss: 9, pp e0271373-e0271373
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors explore region-level indicators to predict the persistence of child marriage in four countries in South Asia, namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan, and develop a prediction model that relies largely on regional and local inputs such as droughts, floods, population growth and nightlight data to model the incidence of child marriages.
Abstract: Globally, 21 percent of young women are married before their 18th birthday. Despite some progress in addressing child marriage, it remains a widespread practice, in particular in South Asia. While household predictors of child marriage have been studied extensively in the literature, the evidence base on macro-economic factors contributing to child marriage and models that predict where child marriage cases are most likely to occur remains limited. In this paper we aim to fill this gap and explore region-level indicators to predict the persistence of child marriage in four countries in South Asia, namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. We apply machine learning techniques to child marriage data and develop a prediction model that relies largely on regional and local inputs such as droughts, floods, population growth and nightlight data to model the incidence of child marriages. We find that our gradient boosting model is able to identify a large proportion of the true child marriage cases and correctly classifies 77% of the true marriage cases, with a higher accuracy in Bangladesh (92% of the cases) and a lower accuracy in Nepal (70% of cases). In addition, all countries contain in their top 10 variables for classification nighttime light growth, a shock index of drought over the previous and the last two years and the regional level of education, suggesting that income shocks, regional economic activity and regional education levels play a significant role in predicting child marriage. Given the accuracy of the model to predict child marriage, our model is a valuable tool to support policy design in countries where household-level data remains limited.
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined the relationship between exposure to a transmedia entertainment education (EE) social and behavior change communication (SBCC) initiative with shifting child marriage-related social norms and found that exposure to EE contributes to improved articulation of and shifts in social norms, and engenders normative changes at the population level.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between exposure to a transmedia entertainment-education (EE) social and behavior change communication (SBCC) initiative with shifting child marriage-related social norms. Districts were selected purposively, whereas households were selected randomly. A total of 1102 households (n = 3905) with fathers, mothers, adolescent boys, and girls completed the baseline and endline survey. Logistic regression using panel data was conducted. There was a decline in the perceived prevalence of child marriage and dowry exchange within respondents’ communities at endline. For injunctive norms, fathers reported significantly higher levels of disapproval for child marriage at endline. However, the reverse was true for mothers and adolescent girls. Almost all respondents had a significantly lower odds of identifying rewards/benefits and punishments/consequences associated with rejecting child marriage at endline. Most respondents with exposure to Icchedana were more likely to report the importance of injunctive norms or expectations of others on their behaviors, than those who were not exposed. Exposure to EE contributes to improved articulation of and shifts in social norms and engenders normative changes at the population level.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Aug 1997
TL;DR: The model studied can be interpreted as a broad, abstract extension of the well-studied on-line prediction model to a general decision-theoretic setting, and it is shown that the multiplicative weight-update Littlestone?Warmuth rule can be adapted to this model, yielding bounds that are slightly weaker in some cases, but applicable to a considerably more general class of learning problems.
Abstract: In the first part of the paper we consider the problem of dynamically apportioning resources among a set of options in a worst-case on-line framework. The model we study can be interpreted as a broad, abstract extension of the well-studied on-line prediction model to a general decision-theoretic setting. We show that the multiplicative weight-update Littlestone?Warmuth rule can be adapted to this model, yielding bounds that are slightly weaker in some cases, but applicable to a considerably more general class of learning problems. We show how the resulting learning algorithm can be applied to a variety of problems, including gambling, multiple-outcome prediction, repeated games, and prediction of points in Rn. In the second part of the paper we apply the multiplicative weight-update technique to derive a new boosting algorithm. This boosting algorithm does not require any prior knowledge about the performance of the weak learning algorithm. We also study generalizations of the new boosting algorithm to the problem of learning functions whose range, rather than being binary, is an arbitrary finite set or a bounded segment of the real line.

15,813 citations

Proceedings ArticleDOI
13 Aug 2016
TL;DR: XGBoost as discussed by the authors proposes a sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges.
Abstract: Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examples using far fewer resources than existing systems.

14,872 citations

Proceedings ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper proposes a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning and provides insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system called XGBoost.
Abstract: Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examples using far fewer resources than existing systems.

13,333 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Chapter 11 includes more case studies in other areas, ranging from manufacturing to marketing research, and a detailed comparison with other diagnostic tools, such as logistic regression and tree-based methods.
Abstract: Chapter 11 includes more case studies in other areas, ranging from manufacturing to marketing research. Chapter 12 concludes the book with some commentary about the scientiŽ c contributions of MTS. The Taguchi method for design of experiment has generated considerable controversy in the statistical community over the past few decades. The MTS/MTGS method seems to lead another source of discussions on the methodology it advocates (Montgomery 2003). As pointed out by Woodall et al. (2003), the MTS/MTGS methods are considered ad hoc in the sense that they have not been developed using any underlying statistical theory. Because the “normal” and “abnormal” groups form the basis of the theory, some sampling restrictions are fundamental to the applications. First, it is essential that the “normal” sample be uniform, unbiased, and/or complete so that a reliable measurement scale is obtained. Second, the selection of “abnormal” samples is crucial to the success of dimensionality reduction when OAs are used. For example, if each abnormal item is really unique in the medical example, then it is unclear how the statistical distance MD can be guaranteed to give a consistent diagnosis measure of severity on a continuous scale when the larger-the-better type S/N ratio is used. Multivariate diagnosis is not new to Technometrics readers and is now becoming increasingly more popular in statistical analysis and data mining for knowledge discovery. As a promising alternative that assumes no underlying data model, The Mahalanobis–Taguchi Strategy does not provide sufŽ cient evidence of gains achieved by using the proposed method over existing tools. Readers may be very interested in a detailed comparison with other diagnostic tools, such as logistic regression and tree-based methods. Overall, although the idea of MTS/MTGS is intriguing, this book would be more valuable had it been written in a rigorous fashion as a technical reference. There is some lack of precision even in several mathematical notations. Perhaps a follow-up with additional theoretical justiŽ cation and careful case studies would answer some of the lingering questions.

11,507 citations

31 Oct 2008
TL;DR: It made it possible to improve people's lives and now it prevents all forms of discrimination in the world.
Abstract: It made it possible to improve people's lives. Now it prevents all forms of discrimination in the world. It helps to improve our world.

1,521 citations