Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries
01 May 1991-Quarterly Journal of Economics (QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS)-Vol. 106, Iss: 2, pp 407-443
TL;DR: For 98 countries in the period 1960-1985, the growth rate of real per capita GDP is positively related to initial human capital (proxied by 1960 school-enrollment rates) and negatively related to the initial (1960) level as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: For 98 countries in the period 1960–1985, the growth rate of real per capita GDP is positively related to initial human capital (proxied by 1960 school-enrollment rates) and negatively related to the initial (1960) level of real per capita GDP. Countries with higher human capital also have lower fertility rates and higher ratios of physical investment to GDP. Growth is inversely related to the share of government consumption in GDP, but insignificantly related to the share of public investment. Growth rates are positively related to measures of political stability and inversely related to a proxy for market distortions.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined a cross-section of about 80 countries for the period 1960-89 and found that various measures of financial development are strongly associated with both current and later rates of economic growth.
Abstract: Joseph Schumpeter argued in 1911 that the services provided by financial intermediaries - mobilizing savings, evaluating projects, managing risk, monitoring managers, and facilitating transactions -stimulate technological innovation and economic development. The authors present evidence that supports this view. Examining a cross-section of about 80 countries for the period 1960-89, they find that various measures of financial development are strongly associated with both current and later rates of economic growth. Each measure has shortcomings but all tell the same story: finance matters. They present three main findings, which are robust to many specification tests: The average level of financial development for 1960-89 is very strongly associated with growth for the period. Financial development precedes growth. For example, financial depth in 1960 (the ratio of broad money to GDP) is positively and significantly related to real per capita GDP growth over the next 30 years even after controlling for a variety of country-specific characteristics and policy indicators. Financial development is positively associated with both investment rate and the efficiency with which economies use capital. Much work remains to be done, but the data are consistent with Schumpeter's view that the services provided by financial intermediaries stimulate long-run growth.
8,204 citations
TL;DR: This paper showed that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker, and that a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries is driven by differences in institutions and government policies.
Abstract: Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis, our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker--we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language.
7,208 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used indicators of trust and civic norms from the World Values Surveys for a sample of 29 market economies and found that membership in formal groups is not associated with trust or with improved economic performance.
Abstract: This paper presents evidence that "social capital" matters for measurable economic performance, using indicators of trust and civic norms from the World Values Surveys for a sample of 29 market economies. Memberships in formal groups—Putnam's measure of social capital—is not associated with trust or with improved economic performance. We find trust and civic norms are stronger in nations with higher and more equal incomes, with institutions that restrain predatory actions of chief executives, and with better-educated and ethnically homogeneous populations.
6,894 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship; that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms, and found that industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of foreign finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets.
Abstract: Does finance affect economic growth? A number of studies have identified a positive correlation between the level of development of a country's financial sector and the rate of growth of its per capita income. As has been noted elsewhere, the observed correlation does not necessarily imply a causal relationship. This paper examines whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship; that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms. Specifically, we ask whether industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of external finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets. We find this to be true in a large sample of countries over the 1980s. We show this result is unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse causality.
6,815 citations
TL;DR: This article showed that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which are referred to as social infrastructure and called social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured by language.
Abstract: Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker—we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language. In 1988 output per worker in the United States was more than 35 times higher than output per worker in Niger. In just over ten days the average worker in the United States produced as much as an average worker in Niger produced in an entire year. Explaining such vast differences in economic performance is one of the fundamental challenges of economics. Analysis based on an aggregate production function provides some insight into these differences, an approach taken by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil [1992] and Dougherty and Jorgenson [1996], among others. Differences among countries can be attributed to differences in human capital, physical capital, and productivity. Building on their analysis, our results suggest that differences in each element of the production function are important. In particular, however, our results emphasize the key role played by productivity. For example, consider the 35-fold difference in output per worker between the United States and Niger. Different capital intensities in the two countries contributed a factor of 1.5 to the income differences, while different levels of educational attainment contributed a factor of 3.1. The remaining difference—a factor of 7.7—remains as the productivity residual. * A previous version of this paper was circulated under the title ‘‘The Productivity of Nations.’’ This research was supported by the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford and by the National Science Foundation under grants SBR-9410039 (Hall) and SBR-9510916 (Jones) and is part of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s program on Economic Fluctuations and Growth. We thank Bobby Sinclair for excellent research assistance and colleagues too numerous to list for an outpouring of helpful commentary. Data used in the paper are available online from http://www.stanford.edu/,chadj.
6,454 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, a parameter covariance matrix estimator which is consistent even when the disturbances of a linear regression model are heteroskedastic is presented, which does not depend on a formal model of the structure of the heteroSkewedness.
Abstract: This paper presents a parameter covariance matrix estimator which is consistent even when the disturbances of a linear regression model are heteroskedastic. This estimator does not depend on a formal model of the structure of the heteroskedasticity. By comparing the elements of the new estimator to those of the usual covariance estimator, one obtains a direct test for heteroskedasticity, since in the absence of heteroskedasticity, the two estimators will be approximately equal, but will generally diverge otherwise. The test has an appealing least squares interpretation.
25,689 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a model of long run growth is proposed and examples of possible growth patterns are given. But the model does not consider the long run of the economy and does not take into account the characteristics of interest and wage rates.
Abstract: I. Introduction, 65. — II. A model of long-run growth, 66. — III. Possible growth patterns, 68. — IV. Examples, 73. — V. Behavior of interest and wage rates, 78. — VI. Extensions, 85. — VII. Qualifications, 91.
20,482 citations
01 Dec 1965
TL;DR: Most economic theorists have embraced the principle that education enhances one's ability to receive, decode, and understand information, and that information processing and interpretation is important for performing or learning to perform many jobs as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Most economic theorists have embraced the principle that certain kinds of education—the three R's, vocational training, and higher education—equip a man to perform certain jobs or functions, or enable a man to perform a given function more effectively. The principle seems a sound one. Underlying it, perhaps, is the theory that education enhances one's ability to receive, decode, and understand information, and that information processing and interpretation is important for performing or learning to perform many jobs. This chapter focuses on the economic growth theory, which has concentrated on the role of education as it relates to the completely routinized job. In its usual, rather general form, the theory postulates a production function which states how maximum current output depends upon the current services of tangible capital goods, the current number of men performing each of these jobs, the current educational attainments of each of these jobholders and time.
3,234 citations
TL;DR: The purchasing power parity (HIE) doctrine has had its ebbs and flows I over the years as mentioned in this paper and it has also had its critics, among others Taussig after World War J4 and Haberler after WWIJ,5 but it has managed to survive nevertheless.
Abstract: 5_HIE purchasing-power parity doctrine has had its ebbs and flows I over the years. Interest in the doctrine arose whenever existing exchange rates were considered unrealistic and the search began for the elusive concept of equilibrium rates. It was first invokedalthough in somewhat ambiguous terms -in the period of the Napoleonic wars,' it received its christening at the hands of Gustav Cassel during World War I,2 and it was resurrected after World War II.3 It has also had its critics, among others Taussig after World War J4 and Haberler after World War IJ,5 but it has managed to survive nevertheless. In recent years, new efforts have been made to clothe the purchasing-power parity doctrine in the garments of respectability, and a proposal has also been put forward to use this doctrine as a guide in establishing equilibrium exchange rates.6 At the same time, new
3,202 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe a class of models in which this type of heterogeneity in growth experiences can arise as a result of cross-country differences in government policy, which can also create incentives for labor migration from slow growing to fast growing countries.
Abstract: The wide cross-country disparity in rates of economic growth is the most puzzling feature of the development process. This paper describes a class of models in which this type of heterogeneity in growth experiences can arise as a result of cross-country differences in government policy. These differences in policy regimes can also create incentives for labor migration from slow growing to fast growing countries. In the class of models that we study growth is endogenous but the technology exhibits constant returns to scale and there is a steady state path that accords with Kaldor's stylized facts of economic development. The key to making growth endogenous in the absence of increasing returns is the presence of a "core" of capital goods that can be produced without the direct or indirect contribution of factors that cannot be accumulated, such as land.
3,048 citations