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Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk? - Working Paper 264
TL;DR: Barriers to emigration deserve a research priority that is commensurate with their likely colossal economic effects as mentioned in this paper, but when they study migration at all, they focus on the effects of immigration on nonmigrants in destination countries.
Abstract: Large numbers of people born in poor countries would like to leave those countries, but barriers prevent their emigration. Those barriers, according to economists best estimates to date, cost the world economy much more than all remaining barriers to the international movement of goods and capital combined. Yet economists spend much more time studying the movement of goods and capital, and when they study migration at all, they focus on the effects of immigration on nonmigrants in destination countries. I ask why this is the case and sketch a four-point research agenda on the effects of emigration. Barriers to emigration deserve a research priority that is commensurate with their likely colossal economic effects.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the landscape of global talent mobility, which is both asymmetric and rising in importance, and sketched the determinants of global mobility at individual and firm levels.
Abstract: The global distribution of talent is highly skewed and the resources available to countries to develop and utilize their best and brightest vary substantially. The migration of skilled workers across countries tilts the deck even further. Using newly available data, the paper first reviews the landscape of global talent mobility, which is both asymmetric and rising in importance. Next, the determinants of global talent flows at the individual and firm levels are presented and some important implications are sketched. Third, the national gatekeepers for skilled migration and broad differences in approaches used to select migrants for admission are reviewed. Looking forward, the capacity of people, firms, and countries to successfully navigate this tangled web of global talent will be critical to their success.
207 citations
01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this paper, the progress made on sustainable poverty reduction and shared prosperity, as well as the policies that are needed to make further progress, are discussed, along with the unfinished agenda left for the SDGs.
Abstract: Chapter one examines the progress made on sustainable poverty reduction and shared prosperity, as well as the policies that are needed to make further progress. With 2015 being a watershed year for global development goals, Chapter two reviews the development successes during the MDG period and examines the unfinished agenda left for the SDGs. Chapter three assesses the macroeconomic performance over the MDG period, provides the near- and medium-term outlook, and examines what the world might be like in 2030. Part two, the thematic part, examines how demographic change can be tilted in favor of the development goals. Chapter four characterizes demographic change at the global, regional, and country level. It also examines the drivers of demographic change that have shaped the diversity of demographic patterns and trends. Chapter five examines how demography affects development. It develops a new global typology that ties demographic change to development potential and analyzes the various pathways through which demographic change affects the prosperity of nations. Chapter six analyzes how policies can leverage demographic change in support of the development goals. It examines policy opportunities at both the country and the global level.
155 citations
TL;DR: Examining how weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union in the recent past found that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming.
Abstract: International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurges in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration—in particular, across national borders. Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000–2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351,000 per year in our sample. We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming. Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28% (98,000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 4.5 and by 188% (660,000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP).
154 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used an original panel dataset of migrant departures from the Philippines to identify the responsiveness of migrant numbers and wages to gross domestic product (GDP) shocks in destination countries.
Abstract: The authors use an original panel dataset of migrant departures from the Philippines to identify the responsiveness of migrant numbers and wages to gross domestic product (GDP) shocks in destination countries. The authors find a large, significant response of migrant numbers to GDP shocks at destination, but no significant wage response. This is consistent with binding minimum wages for migrant labor. This result implies that labor market imperfections that make international migration attractive also make migrant flows more sensitive to global business cycles. Difference-in-differences analysis of a minimum wage change for maids confirms that minimum wages bind and demand is price sensitive without these distortions.
141 citations
TL;DR: The authors studied the effect of wealth on the probability of internal or international migration during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913), a time when the US maintained an open border to European immigrants.
136 citations
References
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01 Jan 1988
Abstract: This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and international trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumulation and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through schooling, and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing.
19,093 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1934
TL;DR: Buku ini memberikan infmasi tentang aliran melingkar kehidupan ekonomi sebagaimana dikondisikan oleh keadaan tertentu, fenomena fundamental dari pembangunan EKonomi, kredit, laba wirausaha, bunga atas modal, and siklus bisnis as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Buku ini memberikan infmasi tentang aliran melingkar kehidupan ekonomi sebagaimana dikondisikan oleh keadaan tertentu, fenomena fundamental dari pembangunan ekonomi, kredit dan modal, laba wirausaha, bunga atas modal, dan siklus bisnis.
16,325 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.
Abstract: Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is neither a conventional good nor a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the nonconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported, and instead, the equilibriumis one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that having a large population is not sufficient to generate growth.
11,095 citations
TL;DR: This paper showed that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker, and that a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries is driven by differences in institutions and government policies.
Abstract: Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis, our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker--we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language.
7,208 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: Pritchett et al. as discussed by the authors found that education did not lead to faster economic growth and pointed out that increasing educational capital resulting from improvements in the educational attainment of the labor force has no positive impact on the growth rate of output per worker.
Abstract: How to explain the surprising finding that more education did not lead to faster economic growth? Cross-national data on economic growth rates show that increases in educational capital resulting from improvements in the educational attainment of the labor force have had no positive impact on the growth rate of output per worker. In fact, contends Pritchett, the estimated impact of growth of human capital on conventional nonregression growth accounting measures of total factor productivity is large, strongly significant, and negative. Needless to say, this at least appears to contradict the current conventional wisdom in development circles about education's importance for growth. After establishing that this negative result about the education-growth linkage is robust, credible, and consistent with previous literature, Pritchett explores three possible explanations that reconcile the abundant evidence about wage gains from schooling for individuals with the lack of schooling impact on aggregate growth: - That schooling creates no human capital. Schooling may not actually raise cognitive skills or productivity but schooling may nevertheless raise the private wage because to employers it signals a positive characteristic like ambition or innate ability. - That the marginal returns to education are falling rapidly where demand for educated labor is stagnant. Expanding the supply of educated labor where there is stagnant demand for it causes the rate of return to education to fall rapidly, particularly where the sluggish demand is due to limited adoption of innovations. - That the institutional environments in many countries have been sufficiently perverse that the human capital accumulated has been applied to activities that served to reduce economic growth. In other words, possibly education does raise productivity, and there is demand for this more productive educated labor, but demand for educated labor comes from individually remunerative but socially wasteful or counterproductive activities - a bloated bureaucracy, for example, or overmanned state enterprises in countries where the government is the employer of last resort - so that while individuals' wages go up with education, output stagnates, or even falls. This paper - a product of the Poverty and Human Resources Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to investigate the determinants of economic growth.
1,736 citations