Economics of antiretroviral treatment vs. circumcision for HIV prevention
26 Dec 2012-Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (National Academy of Sciences)-Vol. 109, Iss: 52, pp 21271-21276
TL;DR: A new mathematical model is developed and applied to South Africa, finding that high ART coverage combined with high MMC coverage provides approximately the same HIV incidence reduction as TasP, for $5 billion less over 2009–2020.
Abstract: The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 study, which showed the effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment in reducing HIV transmission, has been hailed as a “game changer” in the fight against HIV, prompting calls for scaling up treatment as prevention (TasP). However, it is unclear how TasP can be financed, given flat-lining support for global HIV programs. We assess whether TasP is indeed a game changer or if comparable benefits are obtainable at similar or lower cost by increasing coverage of medical male circumcision (MMC) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) at CD4 <350/μL. We develop a new mathematical model and apply it to South Africa, finding that high ART coverage combined with high MMC coverage provides approximately the same HIV incidence reduction as TasP, for $5 billion less over 2009–2020. MMC outperforms ART significantly in cost per infection averted ($1,096 vs. $6,790) and performs comparably in cost per death averted ($5,198 vs. $5,604). TasP is substantially less cost effective at $8,375 per infection and $7,739 per death averted. The prevention benefits of HIV treatment are largely reaped with high ART coverage. The most cost-effective HIV prevention strategy is to expand MMC coverage and then scale up ART, but the most cost-effective HIV-mortality reduction strategy is to scale up MMC and ART jointly. TasP is cost effective by commonly used absolute benchmarks but it is far less cost effective than MMC and ART. Given South Africa’s current annual ART spending, the $5 billion in savings offered by MMC and ART over TasP in the next decade, for similar health benefits, challenges the widely hailed status of TasP as a game changer.
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TL;DR: Male circumcision significantly reduces the risk of HIV acquisition in young men in Africa and should be integrated with other HIV preventive interventions and provided as expeditiously as possible.
1,692 citations
TL;DR: Gains in adult life expectancy in rural KwaZulu-Natal since the 2004 public-sector scale-up of HIV treatment signify the social value of ART and have implications for the investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors.
Abstract: The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public-sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years—an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for the investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors.
572 citations
Imperial College London1, Harvard University2, University College London3, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre4, Erasmus University Rotterdam5, University of KwaZulu-Natal6, University of New South Wales7, University of Toronto8, University of London9, Brigham and Women's Hospital10, Copenhagen University Hospital11, University of Copenhagen12, University of Bristol13, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention14, University of the Witwatersrand15, Boston University16, University of York17
TL;DR: Estimates suggest that earlier eligibility for antiretroviral therapy is very cost effective in low-income and middle-income settings, although these estimates should be revisited when more data become available.
217 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a public health approach to combination prevention that understands that risk is not evenly distributed and that effective interventions can vary by risk profile, and focus should be on high-transmission geographies, people at highest risk for HIV, and the package of interventions that are most likely to have the largest effect in each different microepidemic.
122 citations
TL;DR: This trial aims to provide proof-of-principle evidence regarding the effectiveness of Treatment-as-Prevention in reducing HIV incidence at the population level.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppresses HIV viral load in all body compartments and so limits the risk of HIV transmission. It has been suggested that ART not only contributes to preventing transmission at individual but potentially also at population level. This trial aims to evaluate the effect of ART initiated immediately after identification/diagnosis of HIV-infected individuals, regardless of CD4 count, on HIV incidence in the surrounding population. The primary outcome of the overall trial will be HIV incidence over two years. Secondary outcomes will include i) socio-behavioural outcomes (acceptability of repeat HIV counselling and testing, treatment acceptance and linkage to care, sexual partnerships and quality of life); ii) clinical outcomes (mortality and morbidity, retention into care, adherence to ART, virologic failure and acquired HIV drug resistance), iii) cost-effectiveness of the intervention. The first phase will specifically focus on the trial's secondary outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: A cluster-randomised trial in 34 (2 × 17) clusters within a rural area of northern KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), covering a total population of 34,000 inhabitants aged 16 years and above, of whom an estimated 27,200 would be HIV-uninfected at start of the trial. The first phase of the trial will include ten (2 × 5) clusters. Consecutive rounds of home-based HIV testing will be carried out. HIV-infected participants will be followed in dedicated trial clinics: in intervention clusters, they will be offered immediate ART initiation regardless of CD4 count and clinical stage; in control clusters they will be offered ART according to national treatment eligibility guidelines (CD4 <350 cells/μL, World Health Organisation stage 3 or 4 disease or multidrug-resistant/extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis). Following proof of acceptability and feasibility from the first phase, the trial will be rolled out to further clusters. DISCUSSION: We aim to provide proof-of-principle evidence regarding the effectiveness of Treatment-as-Prevention in reducing HIV incidence at the population level. Data collected from the participants at home and in the clinics will inform understanding of socio-behavioural, economic and clinical impacts of the intervention as well as feasibility and generalizability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01509508; South African Trial Register: DOH-27-0512-3974.
118 citations
Cites background from "Economics of antiretroviral treatme..."
...Cost effectiveness data will also inform decisions on whether and how to take such strategies to scale or to invest in existing proven cost-effective interventions such as male medical circumcision and expanding coverage at current ART initiation thresholds [47]....
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References
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University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill1, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center2, FHI 3603, University of Zimbabwe4, Johns Hopkins University5, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation6, Chiang Mai University7, Fenway Health8, Harvard University9, Kenya Medical Research Institute10, University of the Witwatersrand11, University of California, San Francisco12, University of Nebraska Medical Center13, National Institutes of Health14, University of California, Los Angeles15, University of Washington16
TL;DR: In this article, Antiretroviral therapy that reduces viral replication could limit the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples.
Abstract: Background Antiretroviral therapy that reduces viral replication could limit the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples. Methods In nine countries, we...
5,871 citations
TL;DR: The exciting evidence generated by this paper – that antiretroviral treatment of HIV-1 infection definitively reduces the risk of onward transmission of the virus by 96% – was rightly dubbed Science magazine's ‘Breakthrough of the Year’ in 2011.
Abstract: MS Cohen, YQ Chen, M McCauley N Engl J Med 2011 365:493–505.
The exciting evidence generated by this paper – that antiretroviral treatment of HIV-1 infection definitively reduces the risk of onward transmission of the virus by 96% – was rightly dubbed Science magazine's ‘Breakthrough of the Year’ in 2011.1 ,2
It has long been known that the probability of sexual transmission of HIV is strongly correlated with concentrations of HIV in blood and genital fluids.3 ,4 Effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) produces prolonged and sustained suppression of HIV replication in these compartments, reducing the amount of free virus.5 ,6 Thus, there has long been a …
4,259 citations
TL;DR: Male circumcision provides a degree of protection against acquiring HIV infection, equivalent to what a vaccine of high efficacy would have achieved in sub-Saharan Africa.
Abstract: Background Observational studies suggest that male circumcision may provide protection against HIV-1 infection. A randomized, controlled intervention trial was conducted in a general population of South Africa to test this hypothesis. Methods and Findings A total of 3,274 uncircumcised men, aged 18–24 y, were randomized to a control or an intervention group with follow-up visits at months 3, 12, and 21. Male circumcision was offered to the intervention group immediately after randomization and to the control group at the end of the follow-up. The grouped censored data were analyzed in intention-to-treat, univariate and multivariate, analyses, using piecewise exponential, proportional hazards models. Rate ratios (RR) of HIV incidence were determined with 95% CI. Protection against HIV infection was calculated as 1 � RR. The trial was stopped at the interim analysis, and the mean (interquartile range) follow-up was 18.1 mo (13.0–21.0) when the data were analyzed. There were 20 HIV infections (incidence rate ¼0.85 per 100 person-years) in the intervention group and 49 (2.1 per 100 person-years) in the control group, corresponding to an RR of 0.40 (95% CI: 0.24%–0.68%; p , 0.001). This RR corresponds to a protection of 60% (95% CI: 32%–76%). When controlling for behavioural factors, including sexual behaviour that increased slightly in the intervention group, condom use, and health-seeking behaviour, the protection was of 61% (95% CI: 34%– 77%).
2,483 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a randomised controlled trial of 2784 men aged 18-24 years in Kisumu, Kenya was conducted to determine whether male circumcision had a protective effect against HIV infection, and to assess safety and changes in sexual behaviour related to this intervention.
2,075 citations
TL;DR: Male circumcision reduced HIV incidence in men without behavioural disinhibition as well as in all sociodemographic, behavioural, and sexually transmitted disease symptom subgroups.
2,034 citations