Economics of fixed broadband access network strategies
TL;DR: This article presents a comprehensive techno-economic evaluation of two upgrade strategy cases for broadband IP services for residential and business customers, and illustrates their respective merits and pitfalls, allowing the definition of a reasonable investment policy.
Abstract: This article presents a comprehensive techno-economic evaluation of two upgrade strategy cases for broadband IP services for residential and business customers, and illustrates their respective merits and pitfalls, allowing the definition of a reasonable investment policy. The work should enable establishment of guidelines for broadband infrastructure upgrade strategies from the incumbent operator's view. Following the definition of appropriate service sets, and taking into account demand scenarios established within the project, this work has been focused on developing a techno-economic model, based on the TONIC tool. Tariff structures have been applied to compute the key economic indicators, net present value, internal rate of return, and payback period. This investment analysis was carried using the tool, which was developed by IST-TONIC. The results show that the choice of technology (Ethernet or ATM) has almost no effect on the cost level and profitability of the cases. For the suburban area, a fiber to the cabinet solution is too expensive due to heavy infrastructure investments; for dense urban and urban areas the FTTC solution is worth the investments. The FTTH/office deployment scenario is only profitable in dense urban areas (>5000 potential customers/km/sup 2/) and already highly risky in the urban area.
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TL;DR: In this paper, an integrated approach that combines multiple strategic-foresight methods in a synergetic way was applied in an inter-organizational business field exploration project in the telecommunications industry.
Abstract: To ensure long-term competitiveness, companies need to develop the ability to explore, plan, and develop new business fields. A suitable approach faces multiple challenges because it needs to (1) integrate multiple perspectives, (2) ensure a high level of participation of the major stakeholders and decision-makers, (3) function despite a high level of uncertainty, and (4) take into account interdependencies between the influencing factors. In this paper, we present an integrated approach that combines multiple strategic-foresight methods in a synergetic way. It was applied in an inter-organizational business field exploration project in the telecommunications industry.
128 citations
Cites background from "Economics of fixed broadband access..."
...However, fibre networks require massive investments in infrastructure and are expected to only postpone the impending problem of congestion [86]....
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TL;DR: In this article, an integrated approach that combines multiple strategic-foresight methods in a synergetic way was applied in an inter-organizational business field exploration project in the telecommunications industry.
110 citations
TL;DR: A MAC protocol designed to serve any mix of services according to their quality of service (QoS) needs, employing four priority levels along with a high number of logically separate data queues is presented.
Abstract: SUMMARY The steadily rising demand for multimedia and data services, the falling cost and omnipresence of Ethernet and the maturity of passive optical networks (PON) technology, promise to radically change the landscape in the local loop. The heart of a gigabit PON system (recently standardized by FSAN/ITU) is the medium access controller (MAC), which arbitrates access to the upstream link among users with fluctuating traffic demands and effects the multiplexing and concentration policy. At the same time, it has to safeguard the service quality and enforce the parameters agreed in the service level agreements (SLAs) between the users and the service provider. In this paper, a MAC protocol designed to serve any mix of services according to their quality of service (QoS) needs, employing four priority levels along with a high number of logically separate data queues is presented. The architecture and implementation in hardware of a MAC algorithm capable of allocating bandwidth down to a resolution of a byte with QoS differentiation is the focus of this paper. It employs the bandwidth arbitration tools of the FSAN/ITU G.984.3 standard and maps SLA parameters to GPON service parameters to create an efficient, fair and flexible residential access system. Copyright # 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
78 citations
Cites background from "Economics of fixed broadband access..."
...APONs present the following disadvantages compared to Ethernet PONs (EPONs): higher protocol overhead, lower bandwidth, increased costs and not straightforward integration of LANs into future optical Ethernet-based WANs [3, 4]....
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...The overall efficiency of EPON is also considered higher compared to APON not only because of the higher bit rate (1Gb/s versus 155/622Mb/s) but most important because ATM did not live up to its promise of becoming an inexpensive technology, whereas the large numbers of Ethernet component and system vendors and manufacturing volumes make economics more favourable and integration of LANs transparent for Ethernet-based WANs [5]....
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TL;DR: This article summarizes the major results from European projects drawing final conclusions and recommendations from the technoeconomic evaluation of three telecommunications market studies, addressing a wide range of crucial telecommunications questions debated today.
Abstract: This article summarizes the major results from European projects drawing final conclusions and recommendations from the technoeconomic evaluation of three telecommunications market studies. It presents an analysis addressing a wide range of crucial telecommunications questions debated today. The business cases are: seamless mobile IP service provision, 3G mobile virtual network operators (MVNO), and fixed networks for broadband IP services. Extensive market analysis has been carried out for modeling demand, penetrations, and tariff structures for new mobile services and broadband services as an input to the business cases. Results show that over a 10-year study period, UMTS business is profitable in most cases for established operators with reasonable market share. The 3G MVNO business case is profitable under typical conditions when MVNO yields about 10 percent penetration, depending on the country type. Provision of fixed broadband services with a fiber to the curb solution is viable in dense urban and urban areas, but not in suburban environments, while fiber to the home is viable only in dense urban areas, despite the selection of protocol (ATM vs. Ethernet). Furthermore, broadband wireless access (BWA) systems, in dense urban and urban areas, show quite promising economic results
63 citations
Cites background or methods from "Economics of fixed broadband access..."
...Mean source traffic figures have been used for dimensioning and structuring standard tariffs such as connection tariff, access tariff, service provider tariff, traffic tariff, transaction tariff, and charge for content....
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...Anticipation for substantial return, primarily due to new information communication technologies (ICT) services, encourages the entry of new players into the marketplace....
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04 Dec 2007
TL;DR: The prospects of state-of-the art Free Space Optical technology, as a last mile solution, combined with Millimeter Wave systems aiming at increasing both the link range and service availability while providing reliable broadband connections at distances above 1 Km are reviewed.
Abstract: As the backbone and the metropolitan area network technologies can increasingly provide unprecedented bandwidth capacities, the focus is being gradually shifted toward broadband access technologies capable of connecting the customer premises to the local exchange. This paper reviews the prospects of state-of-the art Free Space Optical (FSO) technology, as a last mile solution, combined with Millimeter Wave (MMW) systems aiming at increasing both the link range and service availability while providing reliable broadband connections at distances above 1 Km. An overview of the hybrid FSO/MMW system that has been deployed in Athens, Greece, is provided and a brief introduction to the trials that are to be conducted is given.
47 citations
Cites background from "Economics of fixed broadband access..."
...However, as optical technologies are starting to migrate towards the access networks the cost factor is a vital issue [4],[5],[6] to the economic prospects of the investments....
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References
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TL;DR: A techno-economic evaluation of 3G rollout scenarios in two "typical" European countries with contrasting profiles, analyzing both the incumbent and newcomer business cases is presented, based on a techno- economic methodology developed within the ACTS-TERA project.
Abstract: This article presents a techno-economic evaluation of 3G rollout scenarios in two "typical" European countries with contrasting profiles, analyzing both the incumbent and newcomer business cases. The analysis is based on a techno-economic methodology developed within the ACTS-TERA project. Market and tariff forecasts as well as the technological evolutionary paths are discussed and financial figures are analyzed. Sensitivity analysis follows these basic results in order to identify the impact of uncertainties and risks. The success of such an investment project mainly depends on the regulatory framework, demand and tariff structure, and the market share.
66 citations
TL;DR: The TITAN tool makes possible the examination of alternative implementation strategies for advanced services in the access network, relying on component cost trends and forecasts of demand for services to evaluate the overall economic viability of new networks for advanced service delivery.
Abstract: The TITAN tool makes possible the examination of alternative implementation strategies for advanced services in the access network, relying on component cost trends and forecasts of demand for services to evaluate the overall economic viability of new networks for advanced service delivery. >
51 citations
TL;DR: By incorporating these classifications and available forecast information, predictions of broadband application usage in deployment scenarios such as residential, business, and industrial markets are presented.
Abstract: A classification for mobile broadband services and applications is proposed that distinguishes between interactive and distribution services, and identifies the types of information supporting each one. A taxonomy is also proposed for applications' characterization parameters, divided into five different types: service characteristics, traffic and communications parameters, service components, and operation environments. Because the multiservice traffic analysis of a mobile broadband system, with a given mixture of applications, requires the definition of their main operation environments, the respective deployment scenarios are defined. By incorporating these classifications and available forecast information, predictions of broadband application usage in deployment scenarios such as residential, business, and industrial markets are presented.
42 citations
01 Jan 1999
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a long-term broadband demand forecasting model based on Delphi surveys, which has been applied on broadband accesses and traffic in the past few years.
Abstract: The key word for the thesis is long-term demand forecasting which have been applied on telecommunications and especially on broadband accesses and traffic.The objective with the thesis has been to structure and present work on long-term broadband forecasting, to evaluate the forecasting results and to extract the learning. Each main chapter ends with a section called experiences and conclusions.The thesis is organized in seven main parts.The first part addresses application of the Delphi technique for long term forecasting broadband accesses. Three Delphi surveys, which have been conducted during a long period, have been evaluated. All three Delphi surveys have used similar procedures in carrying out the survey, except that two of the Delphi surveys were postal surveys, while one was carried out on site. The applied procedure is evaluated based on an important reference article on Delphi surveys and also based on the long-term forecasting results. The Delphi surveys are not very often used. Hence, the description of the way to conduct the surveys and the experiences and also the evaluations of the results are given specific attention in the thesis.The second part of the thesis has the title “Long-term broadband technology forecasting”. Results from three papers are presented and evaluated. The papers show the evolution of the forecasting modelling. The first forecasts for the broadband evolution in Western Europe were made before broadband was introduced in the residential market in Western Europe. The long-term forecasts were developed based on Logistic models. The modelling also includes substitution effects between broadband technologies. Experiences have shown that technological knowledge and techno-economic evaluations are crucial for making long-term broadband forecasts. Some attention is also put on available broadband accesses statistics and an approach to separate aggregated broadband statistics to access statistics for the business market and for the residential market.“Long-term forecasting models for cost components and technologies” is the third part in the thesis. To be able to evaluate broadband technologies, techno-economic calculations of the “economic” value of the relevant broadband technologies are very important. The extended learning curve model invented by Borgar T Olsen and Kjell Stordahl is presented. The model is much more powerful than the simple exponential learning curve. The extended learning curve makes long-term forecasts of component costs and has the ability to be used directly on technoeconomic calculations, as opposed to the traditional learning curve model, which does not predict the cost as a function of time. In addition the extended learning curve model has interpretable parameters. It is shown that the model may utilize a priori information in cases where too few observations are available.The fourth part addresses long-term traffic forecasting. Three papers are enclosed. The chapter starts with a short overview of relevant forecasting models. Then attention is paid to forecasting and network planning. A comprehensive overview of the field is given together with numerous references in the enclosed paper “Forecasting – an important factor for network planning”. Longterm forecasts for the core network is analyzed and discussed. Also some figures for the total broadband traffic evolution in the Norwegian core network is presented. The last paper described in the chapter shows how long-term traffic forecasts on aggregated level can be used for traffic matrix forecasting by using the extended weighted least square method. The chapter ends by listing several important drivers for new and enhanced broadband traffic that are important in traffic forecasting models.
9 citations
08 Nov 1998
TL;DR: The paper shows how risk methodology developed in the European projects TITAN and OPTIMUM can be applied for evaluation of Various broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators (PNOs) and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market.
Abstract: The paper shows how risk methodology developed in the European projects TITAN (Tool for Introduction strategies and Techno-economic evaluation of Access Network) and OPTIMUM (Optimised Network Architectures for multimedia Services) can be applied for evaluation of Various broadband access network upgrade strategies for public network operators (PNOs) and cable operators in a competitive environment in the residential and small business market. The effect of uncertainties in predictions of critical parameters such as demand forecasts, market shares and cost predictions are analysed. The assessed technology options include broadband twisted pair modems, hybrid fibre coax networks and ATM-based passive optical networks. The results show that the uncertainty in the few market parameters contribute relatively more to the uncertainty in the final economic evaluation than the uncertainty in the large number of cost components.
8 citations