Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers.
University of Sheffield1, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences2, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences3, Lund University4, Stockholm University5, University of Gothenburg6, Natural Resources Canada7, University of Copenhagen8, Umeå University9, Aberystwyth University10, Norwegian Institute for Air Research11, Bangor University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
19 Aug 2013-Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (The Royal Society)-Vol. 368, Iss: 1624, pp 20120488-20120488
TL;DR: A unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913 is presented, which is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges.
Abstract: The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.
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Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland1, Aarhus University2, Lund University3, University of Oslo4, Environment Canada5, University of Alaska Fairbanks6, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory7, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean8, University of Miami9, University of Colorado Boulder10, Delft University of Technology11, Utrecht University12, Bergen University College13, University of Magallanes14, Remote Sensing Center15, Uppsala University16
TL;DR: In this article, key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47-year period (1971-2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system.
Abstract: Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.
440 citations
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: Cramer et al. as discussed by the authors synthesize the scientific literature on the detection and attribution of observed changes in natural and human systems in response to observed recent climate change, and assesses the degree to which detected changes in such systems can be attributed to all aspects of recent climate changes.
Abstract: Author(s): Cramer, W; Yohe, GW; Auffhammer, M; Huggel, C; Molau, U; Da Silva Dias, MAF; Solow, A; Stone, DA; Tibig, L; Leemans, R; Seguin, B; Smith, N; Hansen, G | Abstract: Introduction This chapter synthesizes the scientific literature on the detection and attribution of observed changes in natural and human systems in response to observed recent climate change. For policy makers and the public, detection and attribution of observed impacts will be a key element to determine the necessity and degree of mitigation and adaptation efforts. For most natural and essentially all human systems, climate is only one of many drivers that cause change-other factors such as technological innovation, social and demographic changes, and environmental degradation frequently play an important role as well. Careful accounting of the importance of these and other confounding factors is therefore an important part of the analysis. At any given location, observed recent climate change has happened as a result of a combination of natural, longer term fluctuations and anthropogenic alteration of forcings. To inform about the sensitivity of natural and human systems to ongoing climate change, the chapter assesses the degree to which detected changes in such systems can be attributed to all aspects of recent climate change. For the development of adaptation policies, it is less important whether the observed changes have been caused by anthropogenic climate change or by natural climate fluctuations. Where possible, the relative importance of anthropogenic drivers of climate change is assessed as well. 18.1.1. Scope and Goals of the Chapter Previous assessments, notably in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4; Rosenzweig et al., 2007), indicated that numerous physical and biological systems are affected by recent climate change. Owing to a limited number of published studies, human systems received comparatively little attention in these assessments, with the exception of the food system, which is a coupled human-natural system. This knowledge base is growing rapidly, for all types of impacted systems, but the disequilibrium remains (see also Section 1.1.1, Figure 1-1). The great majority of published studies attribute local to regional changes in affected systems to local to regional climate change.
147 citations
TL;DR: The long-term monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic are used to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming.
Abstract: Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4–7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.
128 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the findings of a collaboration between government scientists, local people, park rangers, and academic researchers that provide insights into changes in plant composition, phenology, and growth over 18 years on Qikiqtaruk-Herschel Island, Canada.
Abstract: The Arctic tundra is warming rapidly, yet the exact mechanisms linking warming and observed ecological changes are often unclear. Understanding mechanisms of change requires long-term monitoring of multiple ecological parameters. Here, we present the findings of a collaboration between government scientists, local people, park rangers, and academic researchers that provide insights into changes in plant composition, phenology, and growth over 18 yr on Qikiqtaruk-Herschel Island, Canada. Qikiqtaruk is an important focal research site located at the latitudinal tall shrub line in the western Arctic. This unique ecological monitoring program indicates the following findings: (1) nine days per decade advance of spring phenology, (2) a doubling of average plant canopy height per decade, but no directional change in shrub radial growth, and (3) a doubling of shrub and graminoid abundance and a decrease by one-half in bare ground cover per decade. Ecological changes are concurrent with satelliteobserved greening and, when integrated, suggest that indirect warming from increased growing season length and active layer depths, rather than warming summer air temperatures alone, could be important drivers of the observed tundra vegetation change. Our results highlight the vital role that long-term and multi-parameter ecological monitoring plays in both the detection and attribution of global change.
116 citations
Cites background from "Ecosystem change and stability over..."
...…with long-term, multi-parameter monitoring including research stations such as Abisko (68.35° N, 18.83° E) in Northern Sweden (Van Wijk et al. 2004, Callaghan et al. 2010, 2013, Hobbie et al. 2017), Toolik Lake (68.63° N, 149.60° E) in Northern Alaska (Van Wijk et al. 2004, Hobbie et al. 2017),…...
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show how multiple anomalous weather events severely affected the terrestrial productivity during one water year (October 2011-September 2012) in a maritime region north of the Arctic Circle, the Nordic Arctic Region, and contributed to the lowest mean vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) recorded this century.
Abstract: The release of cold temperature constraints on photosynthesis has led to increased productivity (greening) in significant parts (32–39%) of the Arctic, but much of the Arctic shows stable (57–64%) or reduced productivity (browning, <4%). Summer drought and wildfires are the best-documented drivers causing browning of continental areas, but factors dampening the greening effect of more maritime regions have remained elusive. Here we show how multiple anomalous weather events severely affected the terrestrial productivity during one water year (October 2011–September 2012) in a maritime region north of the Arctic Circle, the Nordic Arctic Region, and contributed to the lowest mean vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) recorded this century. Procedures for field data sampling were designed during or shortly after the events in order to assess both the variability in effects and the maximum effects of the stressors. Outbreaks of insect and fungal pests also contributed to low greenness. Vegetation greenness in 2012 was 6.8% lower than the 2000–11 average and 58% lower in the worst affected areas that were under multiple stressors. These results indicate the importance of events (some being mostly neglected in climate change effect studies and monitoring) for primary productivity in a high-latitude maritime region, and highlight the importance of monitoring plant damage in the field and including frequencies of stress events in models of carbon economy and ecosystem change in the Arctic. Fourteen weather events and anomalies and 32 hypothesized impacts on plant productivity are summarized as an aid for directing future research.
114 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
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1,775 citations
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe
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Book Chapter•
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Enright et al. as discussed by the authors presented the Enright-Fankhauser-Gabel-Nantel-Klein model, which is based on the work of the authors of this paper.
Abstract: Contributing Authors: Brenna Enright (Canada), Samuel Fankhauser (EBRD/Switzerland), James Ford (Canada), Simone Gigli (Germany), Simon Jetté-Nantel (Canada), Richard J.T. Klein (The Netherlands/Sweden), Irene Lorenzoni (UK), David C. Major (USA), Tristan D. Pearce (Canada), Arun Shreshtha (Nepal), Priyadarshi R. Shukla (India), Joel B. Smith (USA), Tim Reeder (UK), Cynthia Rosenzweig (USA), Katharine Vincent (UK), Johanna Wandel (Canada)
1,464 citations
"Ecosystem change and stability over..." refers background in this paper
...This study also develops a platform and new geo-referenced baseline against which future projections of climate-driven ecosystem change can be validated and refined [21–23] as a tool to help local residents and authorities to adapt to climate change and their impacts [24]....
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