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Posted ContentDOI

Efficacy Estimates for Various COVID-19 Vaccines: What we Know from the Literature and Reports

TL;DR: The efficacy against any disease with infection is 85% after a full course of vaccination for the COVID-19 vaccines, and the VE against severe disease, hospitalization or death averages close to 100%.
Abstract: In this report, we provide summary estimates, from publications and reports, of vaccine efficacy (VE) for the COVID-19 vaccines that are being rolled out on a global scale. We find that, on average, the efficacy against any disease with infection is 85% (95% CI: 71 - 93%) after a fully course of vaccination. The VE against severe disease, hospitalization or death averages close to 100%. The average VE against infection, regardless of symptoms, is 84% (95% CI: 70 - 91%). We also find that the average VE against transmission to others for infected vaccinated people is 54% (95% CI: 38 - 66%). Finally, we prove summary estimates of the VE against any disease with infection for some of the variants of concern (VOC). The average VE for the VOC B.1.1.7, B.1.1.28 (P1) and B.1.351 are 86% (95% CI: 65 - 84%), 61% (95% CI: 43 - 73%) and 56% (95% CI: 29 - 73%), respectively.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Introduction][Results][Discussion] and [Methods]

Introduction

  • The authors summarize estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE) for the COVID-19 vaccines that are being rolled out on local and global scales.
  • VE estimates are taken from journal articles and media reports for the vaccines that have gone through double-blinded, placebo-controlled, phase III vaccine trials, as well as observational studies.
  • Thus, if the authors have two of these VE's, they can always calculate the third.

Results

  • The authors first consider VE for the original wild type viruses.
  • A4 ) give the estimates of the V E S SP (VE for severe disease with infection) after the first dose for two-dose vaccines and one dose for the one-dose vaccine.
  • It is necessary to note that this VOC does not have a mutation that affects immunity, whereas the other VOC's have mutations that affect immune function.
  • The summary estimates for VE after dose 1 and dose 2 are considerably lower than the VE's for the wild type virus.

Discussion

  • The authors have presented the relevant VE estimates for the COVID-19 vaccines that are being rolled out on a global scale and for which there is sufficient quality data.
  • The authors provide estimates of VE against disease with confirmed infection, infection, and transmission to others.
  • The authors have also provided VE estimates for three of the VOC.
  • These estimates should be useful for constructing mathematical models for vaccination impact and for making policy decisions involving vaccination.
  • The authors plan to keep updating this report as more information becomes available.

Methods

  • For each vaccine efficacy measure (e.g., severe disease, infection), the authors first obtained log odds ratios and corresponding sampling variances from each vaccine efficacy estimate and 95% confidence interval (CI).
  • The authors then fit random-effects models to these data to estimate average log odds ratios, which they back-transformed to obtain VE summary estimates and 95% CIs.

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Content maybe subject to copyright    Report

Efficacy Estimates for Various COVID-19 Vaccines:
What we Know from the Literature and Reports
Julia Shapiro
1
, Natalie E. Dean
1
, Zachary J. Madewell
1
, Yang Yang
1
, M.Elizabeth Halloran
2, 3
,
and Ira Longini
1*
1
Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
2
Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
3
Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
*
address correspondence to Ira Longini at ilongini@ufl.edu
June 17, 2021
Abstract
In this report, we provide summary estimates, from publications and reports, of vaccine
efficacy (VE) for the COVID-19 vaccines that are being rolled out on a global scale. We find
that, on average, the efficacy against any disease with infection is 85% (95% CI: 71 - 93%)
after a fully course of vaccination. The VE against severe disease, hospitalization or death
averages close to 100%. The average VE against infection, regardless of symptoms, is 84%
(95% CI: 70 - 91%). We also find that the average VE against transmission to others for
infected vaccinated people is 48% (95% CI: 45 - 52%). Finally, we prove summary estimates
of the VE against any disease with infection for some of the variants of concern (VOC). The
average VE for the VOC γ (P1) is 61% (95% CI: 43 - 73%). The average VE for the VOC
α (B.1.1.7), β (B.1.351), and δ (B.1.617.2) after dose 1 are 48% (95% CI: 44 - 51%), 35%
(95% CI: -11 - 62%), and 33% (95% CI: 21 - 43%), respectively. The average VE for the
VOC α (B.1.1.7), β (B.1.351), and δ (B.1.617.2) after dose 2 are 85% (95% CI: 25 - 97%),
57% (95% CI: 14 - 78%), and 78% (95% CI: 28 - 93%), respectively.
1
. CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 18, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.20.21257461doi: medRxiv preprint
NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Introduction
In this report, we summarize estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE) for the COVID-19 vaccines
that are being rolled out on local and global scales. This includes the Pfizer, Moderna,
Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, Sputnik, Novavax, Sinovac, and Sinopharm vaccines. VE
estimates are taken from journal articles and media reports for the vaccines that have gone
through double-blinded, placebo-controlled, phase III vaccine trials, as well as observational
studies. Some of the estimates are based on rigorous, preplanned statistical analyses from
double-blinded, placebo-controlled trials, while others are extracted from observational stud-
ies with different levels of control. These studies are reported from a variety of sources
including publications, reports, and sometimes press releases. Because of this, we do not
carry out a formal meta analysis. In all cases, we try to extract estimates for one or more
of the triplet of vaccine efficacy parameters (V E
S
, V E
P
, V E
I
) [1], where V E
S
is VE against
infection; V E
P
is VE against disease, given infection; and V E
I
is VE against transmission
to others, given infection. A fourth parameter, V E
SP
, which is VE against disease and
infection, tends to be available from vaccine trials, and it is the usual primary outcome for
those trials (i.e., cases of disease that are confirmed infections). The V E
SP
is a function
of both the V E
S
and V E
P
. If we believe in a multiplicative and independent relationship,
then V E
SP
= 1–(1 V E
S
)(1 V E
P
). Thus, if we have two of these VE’s, we can always
calculate the third.
In the material that follows, we give estimates of these VE’s as a function of time when
protection is believed to begin to occur after the first and second dose for two-dose vaccines,
and after the first dose for one-dose vaccines. We also provide V E
SP
estimates for protection
against the variants of concern (VOC) γ (P1), α (B.1.1.7), β (B.1.351), and δ (B.1.617.2).
The methods for creating the forest plots are given in the Appendix. The supporting tables
for the analysis are also given in the Appendix. Not all estimates described in the tables are
given in the figures, as we have tried to extract the essential information without getting lost
in too much detail. However, virtually all the complete information is given in the Appendix
tables.
Results
We first consider VE for the original wild type viruses. Figure 1 (Table A1) give the estimates
of the V E
SP
after the second dose for two-dose vaccines. All the estimates are from double-
blinded, placebo-controlled vaccine trials. With the exception of the Sinovac vaccine, they
are all over 80%, with a summary estimate of 85% (95% CI: 71 - 93%). The Sinovac V E
SP
estimate is 51% (95% CI: 36 - 62%).
2
. CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 18, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.20.21257461doi: medRxiv preprint

Figure 1: Forest plot of vaccine efficacy to prevent any disease after dose 2,
V E
SP
. * indicates double-blinded, randomized vaccine trial.
The estimated V E
SP
after one dose, for both two-dose and one-dose vaccines, is given
in Figure 2 (Table A2), where the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the only one-dose vaccine
listed. The estimates are generally almost as high as protection after one dose, with summary
estimated of 82% (95% CI: 72 - 88%).
Figure 2: Forest plot of vaccine efficacy to prevent any disease after dose 1,
V E
SP
. * indicates double-blinded, randomized vaccine trial.
3
. CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 18, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.20.21257461doi: medRxiv preprint

Figure 3 (Table A3) give the estimates of the V E
S
SP
(VE for severe disease with infection)
after the second dose for two-dose vaccines. The estimates a very high, and generally close
to 100%, with relatively poor precision.
Figure 3: Forest plot of vaccine efficacy to prevent severe disease after dose
2, V E
S
SP
. * indicates double-blinded, randomized vaccine trial.
4
. CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 18, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.20.21257461doi: medRxiv preprint

Figure 4 (Table A4) give the estimates of the V E
S
SP
(VE for severe disease with infection)
after the first dose for two-dose vaccines and one dose for the one-dose vaccine. The summary
estimated is quite high at 86% (95% CI: 39 - 97%).
Figure 4: Forest plot of vaccine efficacy to prevent severe disease after dose
1, V E
S
SP
. * indicates double-blinded, randomized vaccine trial.
VE against hospitalization and death were quite high, as shown in Figures 5 and 6 (Tables
A5 and A6).
Figure 5: Forest plot of vaccine efficacy to prevent hospitalization, V E
H
SP
. *
indicates double-blinded, randomized vaccine trial.
5
. CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 18, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.20.21257461doi: medRxiv preprint

Citations
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Posted ContentDOI
03 Jul 2021-medRxiv
TL;DR: In this paper, the effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes (COVID-19 hospitalization or death) caused by the Alpha (B.1.7), Beta (B 1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B 2.617.2) VOCs during December 2020 to May 2021.
Abstract: Background SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) are more transmissible and have the potential for increased disease severity and decreased vaccine effectiveness. We sought to estimate the effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes (COVID-19 hospitalization or death) caused by the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2) VOCs during December 2020 to May 2021. Methods We conducted a test-negative design study using linked population-wide vaccination, laboratory testing, and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada. Findings Against symptomatic infection caused by Alpha, vaccine effectiveness with partial vaccination (≥14 days after dose 1) was higher for mRNA-1273 (83%) than BNT162b2 (66%) and ChAdOx1 (64%), and full vaccination (≥7 days after dose 2) increased vaccine effectiveness for BNT162b2 (89%) and mRNA-1273 (92%). Protection against symptomatic infection caused by Beta/Gamma was also higher with partial vaccination for mRNA-1273 (77%) than BNT162b2 (60%) and ChAdOx1 (48%), and full vaccination increased effectiveness for BNT162b2 (84%). Against Delta, vaccine effectiveness after partial vaccination tended to be lower compared to Alpha for mRNA-1273 (72% vs. 83%) and BNT162b2 (56% vs. 66%), but was similar to Alpha for ChAdOx1 (67% vs. 64%). Full vaccination with BNT162b2 increased protection against Delta (87%) to levels comparable to Alpha (89%) and Beta/Gamma (84%). Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization or death caused by all VOCs was generally higher than for symptomatic infection after partial vaccination for all three vaccines. Interpretation Our findings suggest that even a single dose of these 3 vaccines provide substantial protection against these 4 VOCs, and 2 doses likely provide higher protection. Jurisdictions facing vaccine supply constraints might consider delaying second doses to more rapidly achieve greater overall population protection.

135 citations

Posted ContentDOI
11 Jan 2022-medRxiv
TL;DR: To examine how emerging variants and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates, PubMed was searched from June 18, 2021, through January 7, 2022 to obtain SAR estimates and 95%CI, disaggregated by several covariates.
Abstract: We previously reported a household secondary attack rate (SAR) for SARS-CoV-2 of 18.9% through June 17, 2021. To examine how emerging variants and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates, we searched PubMed from June 18, 2021, through January 7, 2022. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95%CI, disaggregated by several covariates. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness based on the transmission probability for susceptibility (VE_S,p), infectiousness (VE_I,p), and total vaccine effectiveness (VE_T,p). Household SAR for 27 studies with midpoints in 2021 was 35.8% (95%CI, 30.6%-41.3%), compared to 15.7% (95%CI, 13.3%-18.4%) for 62 studies with midpoints through April 2020. Household SARs were 38.0% (95%CI, 36.0%-40.0%), 30.8% (95%CI, 23.5%-39.3%), and 22.5% (95%CI, 18.6%-26.8%) for Alpha, Delta, and Beta, respectively. VE_I,p, VE_S,p, and VE_T,p were 56.6% (95%CI, 28.7%-73.6%), 70.3% (95%CI, 59.3%-78.4%), and 86.8% (95%CI, 76.7%-92.5%) for full vaccination, and 27.5% (95%CI, -6.4%-50.7%), 43.9% (95%CI, 21.8%-59.7%), and 59.9% (95%CI, 34.4%-75.5%) for partial vaccination, respectively. Household contacts exposed to Alpha or Delta are at increased risk of infection compared to the original wild-type strain. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection and transmission to others.

66 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A systematic review of COVID-19 vaccines through February 2022, including efficacy data from Phase 3 clinical trials for 15 vaccines undergoing World Health Organization Emergency Use Listing evaluation and real-world effectiveness for 8 vaccines with observational studies meeting inclusion criteria.
Abstract: Abstract Billions of doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been administered globally, dramatically reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence and severity in some settings. Many studies suggest vaccines provide a high degree of protection against infection and disease, but precise estimates vary and studies differ in design, outcomes measured, dosing regime, location, and circulating virus strains. In this study, we conduct a systematic review of COVID-19 vaccines through February 2022. We included efficacy data from Phase 3 clinical trials for 15 vaccines undergoing World Health Organization Emergency Use Listing evaluation and real-world effectiveness for 8 vaccines with observational studies meeting inclusion criteria. Vaccine metrics collected include protection against asymptomatic infection, any infection, symptomatic COVID-19, and severe outcomes including hospitalization and death, for partial or complete vaccination, and against variants of concern Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron. We additionally review the epidemiological principles behind the design and interpretation of vaccine efficacy and effectiveness studies, including important sources of heterogeneity.

53 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jul 2021-Viruses
TL;DR: In this article, in vitro evidences of efficacy for convalescent plasma, currently approved vaccines and monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are presented.
Abstract: We summarize here in vitro evidences of efficacy for convalescent plasma, currently approved vaccines and monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, and B.1.617.2), variants of interest (VOI: B.1.427/B.1.429, P.2, B.1.525, P.3, B.1.526, and B.1.671.1), and other strains (B.1.1.298 and B.1.258delta). While waiting from real world clinical efficacy, these data provide guidance for the treating physician.

29 citations

Posted ContentDOI
15 Sep 2021-medRxiv
TL;DR: In this paper, mixed-effects Poisson models were used to estimate the rate of severe cases and deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and the corresponding estimates of vaccine effectiveness by vaccine platform and age group.
Abstract: Background Mass vaccination campaigns started in Brazil on January/2021 with CoronaVac followed by ChAdOx1 nCov-19, and BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines. Target populations initially included vulnerable groups such as people older than 80 years, with comorbidities, of indigenous origin, and healthcare workers. Younger age groups were gradually included. Methods A national cohort of 66.3 million records was compiled by linking registry-certified COVID-19 vaccination records from the Brazilian National Immunization Program with information on severe COVID-19 cases and deaths. Cases and deaths were aggregated by state and age group. Mixed-effects Poisson models were used to estimate the rate of severe cases and deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and the corresponding estimates of vaccine effectiveness by vaccine platform and age group. The study period is from mid-January to mid-July 2021. Results Estimates of vaccine effectiveness preventing deaths were highest at 97.9% (95% CrI: 93.5-99.8) among 20-39 years old with ChAdOx1 nCov-19, at 82.7% (95% CrI: 80.7-84.6) among 40-59 years old with CoronaVac, and at 89.9% (87.8--91.8) among 40-59 years old with partial immunization of BNT162b2. For all vaccines combined in the full regimen, the effectiveness preventing severe cases among individuals aged 80+ years old was 35.9% (95% CrI: 34.9-36.9) which is lower than that observed for individuals aged 60-79 years (61.0%, 95% CrI: 60.5-61.5). Conclusion Despite varying effectiveness estimates, Brazil’s population benefited from vaccination in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. Results, however, suggest significant vaccine-specific reductions in effectiveness by age, given by differences between age groups 60-79 years and over 80 years.

27 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (1)
Q1. What contributions have the authors mentioned in the paper "Efficacy estimates for various covid-19 vaccines: what we know from the literature and reports" ?

In this report, the authors provide summary estimates, from publications and reports, of vaccine efficacy ( VE ) for the COVID-19 vaccines that are being rolled out on a global scale. Finally, the authors prove summary estimates of the VE against any disease with infection for some of the variants of concern ( VOC ).