Empirical Challenges for Risk Preferences and Production
TL;DR: The importance of risk preferences in agricultural production has long been identified as an important and preeminent issue of policy relevance as discussed by the authors, and recent developments in the study of production risk have called into question much of the core of risk production research.
Abstract: The importance of risk preferences in agricultural production has long been identified as an important and preeminent issue of policy relevance. Recent developments in the study of production risk have called into question much of the core of risk production research. This article provides an overview of the prominent literature attempting to quantify the impact of risk preferences on production and a discussion of the recently discovered challenges. These challenges are typified by (a) an inability to discern risk preferences, (b) an inability to discern the factors that relate to risk preferences, (c) evidence that prior estimation has severe problems, and (d) a general failure of current models to address the important policy or behavioral issues. Although some of these challenges may appear at first blush to be insurmountable, we suggest a new agenda for risk research in production that directly addresses each of these issues.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a brief overview of the theory of planned behaviour and an elaboration of good practices in the assessment of its constructs, and provide recommendations for research design and data analysis.
Abstract: In many countries farmers face pressure to adopt practices to promote sustainability and resilience while ensuring efficient business management to produce food and other agricultural products at reasonable cost. Given a policy context in which voluntary action is preferred over government regulation, understanding farmers’ motivation to embrace recommended practices has become a major subject for research. Increasingly, this endeavour is guided by the theory of planned behaviour, a reasoned action approach (Fishbein and Ajzen, 2010). We provide a brief overview of the theory of planned behaviour and an elaboration of good practices in the assessment of the theory’s constructs. We systematically review 124 applications of the theory to farmer behaviour on a number of specific review criteria. Based on observations of improper use, we consider theoretical and methodological issues and provide recommendations for research design and data analysis.
72 citations
TL;DR: The authors found that survey-based measures are generally more significant indicators of marketing choices, but experimental measures reveal how risk attitudes vary over a range of probable outcomes, which is important in light of increased commodity price volatility.
36 citations
Additional excerpts
...1 Recently recognized concerns about empirical implementation of expected utility theory (EUT) add to the uncertainty of how to effectively measure risk preferences and their impact on behavior (e.g., Just, 2011; Just and Peterson, 2010; Just et al., 2010)....
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...While measurement of risk attitudes has traditionally been conducted in an expected utility framework, consensus on its appropriateness appears to be waning (Just, 2011; Just and Peterson, 2010; Just et al., 2010)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the adoption of farm-based irrigation water saving techniques is analyzed based on a cross-sectional data set of 357 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China.
31 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study the sensitivity of farmer WTP for crop insurance to the inclusion of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) parameters and find that loss aversion and probability distortion increase farmer's willingness to pay for insurance while risk aversion decreases it.
Abstract: A growing number of studies in finance and economics seek to explain insurance choices using the assumptions advanced by behavioral economics. One recent example in agricultural economics is the use of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to explain farmer choices regarding crop insurance coverage levels (Babcock, 2015). We build upon this framework by deriving willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance programs under alternative assumptions, thus extending the model to incorporate farmer decisions regarding whether or not to purchase insurance. Our contribution is twofold. First, we study the sensitivity of farmer WTP for crop insurance to the inclusion of CPT parameters. We find that loss aversion and probability distortion increase WTP for insurance while risk aversion decreases it. Probability distortion in losses plays a particularly important role. Second, we study the impact of yield distribution skewness on farmer WTP assuming CPT preferences. We find that WTP decreases when the distribution of yields moves from negatively- to positively-skewed and that the combined effect of probability weighting in losses and skewness has a large negative impact on farmer WTP for crop insurance.
14 citations
Cites background from "Empirical Challenges for Risk Prefe..."
...Given that risk parameters are unobservable, attempts to elicit them have met with challenges (Just et al., 2010)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate risk preferences with the model of Antle (Antle, 1987) in order to analyse the impact of risk aversion (relative risk premium) on the probability of joining REPS.
Abstract: The lowering of trade barriers under the successive reforms of the pillar I of the Common Agricultural Policy, the opening of the commodity markets to an ever greater number of financial actors and the uncertainty created by climate change, amplify both production risk and market risks for producers. This is particularly true for Irish dairy farmers, as they are export-oriented and their grass-based production system is closely linked to the cycle of seasons. The Rural Environment Protection Scheme (REPS), part of the agri-environmental policies of pillar II, offers to farmers an opportunity to stabilize their income over a five year period. We estimate risk preferences with the model of Antle (Antle, 1987) in order to analyse the impact of risk aversion (relative risk premium) on the probability of joining REPS. Our results support the hypothesis that REPS is used as a risk management tools. This sheds light on the interaction between the reforms of pillar I and the ones of pillar II: further increases in risk could increase the uptake of voluntary agri-environmental policies while the development of new risk management tools (revenue insurance, forward contracts, etc) could decrease it as they could both become substitutes.
11 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develop an alternative model, called prospect theory, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.
Abstract: This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low prob- abilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling. EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY has dominated the analysis of decision making under risk. It has been generally accepted as a normative model of rational choice (24), and widely applied as a descriptive model of economic behavior, e.g. (15, 4). Thus, it is assumed that all reasonable people would wish to obey the axioms of the theory (47, 36), and that most people actually do, most of the time. The present paper describes several classes of choice problems in which preferences systematically violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In the light of these observations we argue that utility theory, as it is commonly interpreted and applied, is not an adequate descriptive model and we propose an alternative account of choice under risk. 2. CRITIQUE
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01 Jan 1944
TL;DR: Theory of games and economic behavior as mentioned in this paper is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based, and it has been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations.
Abstract: This is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based. What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior." In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic and social organization, based on a theory of games of strategy. Not only would this revolutionize economics, but the entirely new field of scientific inquiry it yielded--game theory--has since been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations. And it is today established throughout both the social sciences and a wide range of other sciences.
19,337 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a measure of risk aversion in the small, the risk premium or insurance premium for an arbitrary risk, and a natural concept of decreasing risk aversion are discussed and related to one another.
Abstract: This paper concerns utility functions for money. A measure of risk aversion in the small, the risk premium or insurance premium for an arbitrary risk, and a natural concept of decreasing risk aversion are discussed and related to one another. Risks are also considered as a proportion of total assets.
5,207 citations