Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1

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Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Journal Article•DOI•

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Steven R. Hare¹, Nathan J. Mantua²•Institutions (2)

International Pacific Halibut Commission¹, University of Washington²

01 Oct 2000-Progress in Oceanography (Pergamon)-Vol. 47, Iss: 2, pp 103-145

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965-1997 period of record.

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About: This article is published in Progress in Oceanography.The article was published on 2000-10-01. It has received 1500 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Regime shift & Marine ecosystem.

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Journal Article•DOI•

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems.

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Marten Scheffer¹, S. R. Carpenter², Jonathan A. Foley², Carl Folke³, Brian Walker⁴ - Show less +1 more•Institutions (4)

Wageningen University and Research Centre¹, University of Wisconsin-Madison², Stockholm University³, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation⁴

11 Oct 2001-Nature

TL;DR: Recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state, which suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience.

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Abstract: All ecosystems are exposed to gradual changes in climate, nutrient loading, habitat fragmentation or biotic exploitation. Nature is usually assumed to respond to gradual change in a smooth way. However, studies on lakes, coral reefs, oceans, forests and arid lands have shown that smooth change can be interrupted by sudden drastic switches to a contrasting state. Although diverse events can trigger such shifts, recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state. This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience.

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6,213 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

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Nathan J. Mantua¹, Steven R. Hare²•Institutions (2)

University of Washington¹, International Pacific Halibut Commission²

01 Feb 2002-Journal of Oceanography

TL;DR: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability as discussed by the authors.

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Abstract: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A growing body of evidence highlights a strong tendency for PDO impacts in the Southern Hemisphere, with important surface climate anomalies over the mid-latitude South Pacific Ocean, Australia and South America. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: “cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890–1924 and again from 1947–1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925–1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Interdecadal changes in Pacific climate have widespread impacts on natural systems, including water resources in the Americas and many marine fisheries in the North Pacific. Tree-ring and Pacific coral based climate reconstructions suggest that PDO variations—at a range of varying time scales—can be traced back to at least 1600, although there are important differences between different proxy reconstructions. While 20th Century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities—one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years—the mechanisms causing PDO variability remain unclear. To date, there is little in the way of observational evidence to support a mid-latitude coupled air-sea interaction for PDO, though there are several well-understood mechanisms that promote multi-year persistence in North Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies.

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2,583 citations

Cites background from "Empirical evidence for North Pacifi..."

...1 Surface climate Many of the climate anomalies associated with PDO are broadly similar to those connected with ENSO variations (El Niño and La Niña), though generally not as extreme (Latif and Barnett, 1996; Mantua et al., 1997; Minobe, 1997). Correlations between the November– April PDO index and the 0.5 degree gridded surface temperature and precipitation data of Willmott and Matsuura (2000) (see also Willmott and Robeson, 1995) are shown in Fig. 3. The correlations suggest the following patterns of PDO precipitation anomalies: warm phases of the PDO coincide with anomalously dry periods in eastern Australia, Korea, Japan, the Russian Far East, interior Alaska, in a zonally elongated belt from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and in much of Central America and northern South America; warm PDO phases also tend to coincide with anomalously wet periods in the coastal Gulf of Alaska, the southwest US and Mexico, southeast Brazil, south central South America, and western Australia. The correlations suggest the following patterns of November–April PDO temperature anomalies: warm phases of the PDO tend to coincide with anomalously warm temperatures in northwestern North America, northern South America, and northwestern Australia, and anomalously cool temperatures in eastern China, Korea, Japan, Kamchatka, and the southeast US and Mexico. It is notable that Minobe (2000) and Cayan et al....
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...1 Surface climate Many of the climate anomalies associated with PDO are broadly similar to those connected with ENSO variations (El Niño and La Niña), though generally not as extreme (Latif and Barnett, 1996; Mantua et al., 1997; Minobe, 1997). Correlations between the November– April PDO index and the 0.5 degree gridded surface temperature and precipitation data of Willmott and Matsuura (2000) (see also Willmott and Robeson, 1995) are shown in Fig....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation

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Marten Scheffer¹, Stephen R. Carpenter²•Institutions (2)

Wageningen University and Research Centre¹, University of Wisconsin-Madison²

01 Dec 2003-Trends in Ecology and Evolution

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review emerging ways to link theory to observation, and conclude that although, field observations can provide hints of alternative stable states, experiments and models are essential for a good diagnosis.

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Abstract: Occasionally, surprisingly large shifts occur in ecosystems. Theory suggests that such shifts can be attributed to alternative stable states. Verifying this diagnosis is important because it implies a radically different view on management options, and on the potential effects of global change on such ecosystems. For instance, it implies that gradual changes in temperature or other factors might have little effect until a threshold is reached at which a large shift occurs that might be difficult to reverse. Strategies to assess whether alternative stable states are present are now converging in fields as disparate as desertification, limnology, oceanography and climatology. Here, we review emerging ways to link theory to observation, and conclude that although, field observations can provide hints of alternative stable states, experiments and models are essential for a good diagnosis.

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2,464 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean.

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Francisco P. Chavez¹, John P. Ryan¹, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, C Miguel Ñiquen•Institutions (1)

Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute¹

10 Jan 2003-Science

TL;DR: In the Pacific Ocean, air and ocean temperatures, atmospheric carbon dioxide, landings of anchovies and sardines, and the productivity of coastal and open ocean ecosystems have varied over periods of about 50 years.

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Abstract: In the Pacific Ocean, air and ocean temperatures, atmospheric carbon dioxide, landings of anchovies and sardines, and the productivity of coastal and open ocean ecosystems have varied over periods of about 50 years. In the mid-1970s, the Pacific changed from a cool “anchovy regime” to a warm “sardine regime.” A shift back to an anchovy regime occurred in the middle to late 1990s. These large-scale, naturally occurring variations must be taken into account when considering human-induced climate change and the management of ocean living resources.

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1,525 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change

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E. Di Lorenzo¹, Niklas Schneider², Kim M. Cobb¹, Peter Franks³, Kettyah C. Chhak¹, Arthur J. Miller³, James C. McWilliams⁴, Steven J. Bograd⁵, Hernan G. Arango⁶, Enrique N. Curchitser⁶, Thomas M. Powell⁷, Pascal Rivière - Show less +8 more•Institutions (7)

Georgia Institute of Technology¹, University of Hawaii at Manoa², University of California, San Diego³, University of California, Los Angeles⁴, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration⁵, Rutgers University⁶, University of California, Berkeley⁷

01 Apr 2008-Geophysical Research Letters

TL;DR: The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) as mentioned in this paper is the most widely used index of large-scale climate variability in the Northeast Pacific region and has been shown to be correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, and zooplankton taxa.

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Abstract: Decadal fluctuations in salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, a variety of zooplankton taxa, and fish stocks in the Northeast Pacific are often poorly correlated with the most widely-used index of large-scale climate variability in the region - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We define a new pattern of climate change, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients and chlorophyll. Fluctuations in the NPGO are driven by regional and basin-scale variations in wind-driven upwelling and horizontal advection - the fundamental processes controlling salinity and nutrient concentrations. Nutrient fluctuations drive concomitant changes in phytoplankton concentrations, and may force similar variability in higher trophic levels. The NPGO thus provides a strong indicator of fluctuations in the mechanisms driving planktonic ecosystem dynamics. The NPGO pattern extends beyond the North Pacific and is part of a global-scale mode of climate variability that is evident in global sea level trends and sea surface temperature. Therefore the amplification of the NPGO variance found in observations and in global warming simulations implies that the NPGO may play an increasingly important role in forcing global-scale decadal changes in marine ecosystems.

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984 citations

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Journal Article•DOI•

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production

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Nathan J. Mantua¹, Steven R. Hare, Yuan Zhang, John M. Wallace, Robert C. Francis - Show less +1 more•Institutions (1)

University of Washington¹

01 Jun 1997-Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales.

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Abstract: Evidence gleaned from the instrumental record of climate data identifies a robust, recurring pattern of ocean–atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin. Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales. There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977; the last two reversals correspond to dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal sea and continental surface air temperatures, as well as streamflow in major west coast river systems, from Alaska to California.

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6,719 citations

"Empirical evidence for North Pacifi..." refers background in this paper

...Based on analyses of temperature, pressure, tree ring and salmon catch records, several researchers have hypothesized that earlier climate shifts in the North Pacific occurred in the early 1920s and mid 1940s (Kondo, 1988; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace & Francis, 1997; Zhang, Wallace & Battisti, 1997; Minobe, 1997; Ingraham, Ebbesmeyer & Hinrichsen, 1998)....
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... Mantua et al. (1997) coined the term ‘Pacific Decadal Oscillation’ (PDO) to describe this interdecadal climate variability....
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...... occurred in the winter of 1988‐89 (Polovina, Mitchum, Graham, Craig, DeMartini & Flint, 1994; Mackas, 1995; Sugimoto & Tadokoro, 1998; Watanabe & Nitta, 1999; Overland, Adams & Bond, 1999; Beamish, Noakes, McFarlane, Klyashtorin, Ivanov & Kurashov, 1999; Brodeur, Mills, Overland, Walters & Schumacher, 1999; Welch, Ward, Smith & Eveson, 2000), whereas others have suggested that the post-1977 regime persisted through (at ......
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...…McFarlane, Klyashtorin, Ivanov & Kurashov, 1999; Brodeur, Mills, Overland, Walters & Schumacher, 1999; Welch, Ward, Smith & Eveson, 2000), whereas others have suggested that the post-1977 regime persisted through (at least) 1997 (Mantua et al., 1997; McGowan et al., 1998; Ingraham et al., 1998)....
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...Mantua et al. (1997) coined the term ‘Pacific Decadal Oscillation’ (PDO) to describe this interdecadal climate variability....
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Journal Article•DOI•

The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields

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David W. J. Thompson¹, John M. Wallace¹•Institutions (1)

University of Washington¹

01 May 1998-Geophysical Research Letters

TL;DR: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) as mentioned in this paper is the signature of modulations in the strength of the polar vortex aloft, and it resembles the NAO in many respects; but its primary center of action covers more of the Arctic, giving it a more zonally symmetric appearance.

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Abstract: The leading empirical orthogonal function of the wintertime sea-level pressure field is more strongly coupled to surface air temperature fluctuations over the Eurasian continent than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It resembles the NAO in many respects; but its primary center of action covers more of the Arctic, giving it a more zonally symmetric appearance. Coupled to strong fluctuations at the 50-hPa level on the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales, this "Arctic Oscillation" (AO)can be interpreted as the surface signature of modulations in the strength of the polar vortex aloft. It is proposed that the zonally asymmetric surface air temperature and mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies observed in association with the AO may be secondary baroclinic features induced by the land-sea contrasts. The same modal structure is mirrored in the pronounced trends in winter and springtime surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and 50-hPa height over the past 30 years: parts of Eurasia have warmed by as much as several K, sea-level pressure over parts of the Arctic has fallen by 4 hPa, and the core of the lower stratospheric polar vortex has cooled by several K. These trends can be interpreted as the development of a systematic bias in one of the atmosphere's dominant, naturally occurring modes of variability.

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3,800 citations

"Empirical evidence for North Pacifi..." refers background in this paper

...Thompson and Wallace (1998) have noted that recent trends in both the Arctic and Antarctic extend throughout the troposphere and coincide with stratospheric cooling over both polar regions....
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...In a recent publication, Thompson and Wallace (1998) described the Arctic oscillation (AO, Fig....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter

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John M. Wallace¹, David S. Gutzler¹•Institutions (1)

University of Washington¹

01 Apr 1981-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: In this paper, a review of existing literature on the subject reveals the existence of at least four such patterns: the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oscillations identified by Walker and Bliss (1932), a zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in polar and temperature latitudes, first noted by Lorenz (1951), and what we will refer to as the Pacific/North American pattern, which has been known to operational long-range forecasters in this country since the 1950's.

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Abstract: Contemporaneous correlations between geopotential heights on a given pressure surface at widely separated points on earth, referred to as teleconnections in this paper, are studied in an attempt to identify and document recurrent spatial patterns which might be indicative of standing oscillations in the planetary waves during the Northern Hemisphere winter, with time scales on the order of a month or longer. A review of existing literature on the subject reveals the existence of at least four such patterns: the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oscillations identified by Walker and Bliss (1932). a zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in polar and temperature latitudes, first noted by Lorenz (1951), and what we will refer to as the Pacific/North American pattern, which has been known to operational long-range forecasters in this country since the 1950's. A data set consisting of NMC monthly mean sea level pressure and 500 mb height analyses for a 15-year period is used as a basis fo...

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3,781 citations

"Empirical evidence for North Pacifi..." refers background or methods in this paper

...Wallace and Gutzler (1981) developed the PNA index as a linear combination of the 500 mb height at four latitude–longitude locations....
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...Wallace and Gutzler (1981) developed the PNA index as a linear combination of the 500 mb height at four latitude–longitude locations. Barnston and Livezey (1987) derived the PNA index, as well as a dozen other teleconnection indices, from a rotated principal component analysis of monthly mean 700 mb height anomalies....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Statistical Analysis in Climate Research

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Robert Lund, Hans von Storch, Francis W. Zwiers

01 Dec 2000-Journal of the American Statistical Association

3,494 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns

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Anthony G. Barnston¹, Robert E. Livezey²•Institutions (2)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration¹, Goddard Space Flight Center²

01 Jun 1987-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: In this article, Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) was used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability.

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Abstract: Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atla...

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3,330 citations

"Empirical evidence for North Pacifi..." refers background in this paper

...A2c) teleconnection pattern is a north-south dipole of 700 mb height anomalies over the northeastern Pacific (Barnston & Livezey, 1987)....
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...Barnston and Livezey (1987) derived the PNA index, as well as a dozen other teleconnection indices, from a rotated principal component analysis of monthly mean 700 mb height anomalies....
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