Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change.
Bernard W. T. Coetzee,Mark P. Robertson,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Berndt J. van Rensburg,Wilfried Thuiller +4 more
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DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology, the University of Pretoria, EU FP6 MACIS species targeted project (Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate change: Impacts on biodiversity, contract No. 044399) and EU FP 6 ECOCHANGE integrated project (Challenges in assessing and forecasting biodiversity and ecosystem changes in Europe).Abstract:
DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology, the University of Pretoria, EU FP6 MACIS species targeted project (Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate change: Impacts on biodiversity, contract No.: 044399) and EU FP6 ECOCHANGE integrated project (Challenges in assessing and forecasting biodiversity and ecosystem changes in Europe).read more
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Climate change threatens European conservation areas
Miguel B. Araújo,Diogo Alagador,Diogo Alagador,Mar Cabeza,Mar Cabeza,David Nogués-Bravo,David Nogués-Bravo,Wilfried Thuiller +7 more
TL;DR: The effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change is assessed and the risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change.
Book
Habitat Suitability and Distribution Models
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce the key stages of niche-based habitat suitability model building, evaluation and prediction required for understanding and predicting future patterns of species and biodiversity, including the main theory behind ecological niches and species distributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Identifying refugia from climate change
TL;DR: How the loose definition of the term ‘refugia’ has led to discrepancies in methods used to assess the vulnerability of species to the current trend of rising global temperatures is highlighted.
Journal ArticleDOI
"Important Bird Areas in Africa and Associated Islands: Priority Sites for Conservation" by L. D. C. Fishpool and M. I. Evans. 2001. [book review]
Journal ArticleDOI
Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation
Toni Lyn Morelli,Toni Lyn Morelli,Christopher Daly,Solomon Z. Dobrowski,Deanna M. Dulen,Joseph L. Ebersole,Stephen T. Jackson,Stephen T. Jackson,Jessica D. Lundquist,Constance I. Millar,Sean P. Maher,Sean P. Maher,William B. Monahan,Koren R. Nydick,Kelly T. Redmond,Sarah C. Sawyer,Sarah L. Stock,Steven R. Beissinger +17 more
TL;DR: This work defines climate change refugia as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources.
References
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Random Forests
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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
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Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems
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Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Robert P. Anderson,Miroslav Dudík,Simon Ferrier,Antoine Guisan,Robert J. Hijmans,Falk Huettmann,John R. Leathwick,Anthony Lehmann,Jin Li,Lúcia G. Lohmann,Bette A. Loiselle,Glenn Manion,Craig Moritz,Miguel Nakamura,Yoshinori Nakazawa,Jacob C. M. Mc Overton,A. Townsend Peterson,Steven J. Phillips,Karen Richardson,Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira,Robert E. Schapire,Jorge Soberón,Stephen E. Williams,Mary S. Wisz,Niklaus E. Zimmermann +26 more
TL;DR: This work compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date and found that presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions.
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Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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