Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1571.1

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Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

Journal Article•DOI•

Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

Kerry Emanuel¹•Institutions (1)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology¹

15 Nov 2007-Journal of Climate (American Meteorological Society)-Vol. 20, Iss: 22, pp 5497-5509

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a combination of basic theory and empirical statistical analysis to find that much of the variability in both ocean basins can be explained by variations in potential intensity, low-level vorticity and vertical wind shear.

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Abstract: Revised estimates of kinetic energy production by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific are presented. These show considerable variability on interannual-to-multidecadal time scales. In the Atlantic, variability on time scales of a few years and more is strongly correlated with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature, while in the western North Pacific, this correlation, while still present, is considerably weaker. Using a combination of basic theory and empirical statistical analysis, it is shown that much of the variability in both ocean basins can be explained by variations in potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear. Potential intensity variations are in turn factored into components related to variations in net surface radiation, thermodynamic efficiency, and average surface wind speed. In the Atlantic, potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear strongly covary and are also highly correlated with sea surface temperature, at least during the period in which reanalysis products are considered reliable. In the Pacific, the three factors are not strongly correlated. The relative contributions of the three factors are quantified, and implications for future trends and variability of tropical cyclone activity are discussed.

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Journal Article•DOI•

Tropical cyclones and climate change

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Thomas R. Knutson¹, John L. McBride, Johnny C. L. Chan², Kerry Emanuel³, Greg J. Holland⁴, Christopher W. Landsea¹, Isaac M. Held¹, James P. Kossin¹, Ashok K. Srivastava⁵, Masato Sugi⁶ - Show less +6 more•Institutions (6)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration¹, City University of Hong Kong², Massachusetts Institute of Technology³, National Center for Atmospheric Research⁴, India Meteorological Department⁵, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology⁶

01 Mar 2010-Nature Geoscience

TL;DR: In this paper, the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate and if so, how, has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results.

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Abstract: Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have altered, or will alter, in a changing climate has been subject of considerable debate. An overview of recent research indicates that greenhouse warming will cause stronger storms, on average, but a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones. Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.

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2,368 citations

Cites background from "Environmental Factors Affecting Tro..."

...Tropical cyclone activity versus sea surface temperature Over the past 50 years, a significant statistical correlation has existed between Atlantic tropical cyclone power dissipation (definitions in Supplementary Information S4 ) and SST on timescales of a few years or mor...
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Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

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Sonia I. Seneviratne, Neville Nicholls, David R. Easterling, Clare Goodess, Shinjiro Kanae, James P. Kossin, Yiming Luo, José A. Marengo, Kathleen L. McInnes, Mohammad Rahimi, Markus Reichstein, Asgeir Sorteberg, Carolina Vera, X. Zhang - Show less +10 more

01 Apr 2012

1,699 citations

Cites background from "Environmental Factors Affecting Tro..."

..., 2010) and statistical-dynamical models (Emanuel, 2007) consistently find that greenhouse warming causes tropical cyclone intensity to shift toward stronger storms by the end of the 21st century (2 to 11% increase in mean maximum wind speed globally)....
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...Time series of power dissipation, an aggregate compound of tropical cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity that measures total energy consumption by tropical cyclones, show upward trends in the North Atlantic and weaker upward trends in the western North Pacific over the past 25 years (Emanuel, 2007), but interpretation of longer-term trends in this quantity is again constrained by data quality concerns....
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...As an example, there is a strong observed correlation between local SST and tropical cyclone power dissipation (Emanuel, 2007)....
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...The variability and trend of power dissipation can be related to SST and other local factors such as tropopause temperature and vertical wind shear (Emanuel, 2007), but it is a current topic of debate whether local SST or the difference between local SST and mean tropical SST is the more physically relevant metric (Swanson, 2008)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Tropical cyclones and climate change

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Kevin Walsh, John L. McBride, Philip J. Klotzbach¹, Sethurathinam Balachandran, Suzana J. Camargo, Greg J. Holland², Thomas R. Knutson³, James P. Kossin³, Tsz-cheung Lee, Adam H. Sobel, Masato Sugi - Show less +7 more•Institutions (3)

Colorado State University¹, National Center for Atmospheric Research², National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration³

01 Jan 2016-Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk.

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Abstract: Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales Geological records of past climates have shown century-long variations in TC numbers While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC-induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large-scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65–89 doi: 101002/wcc371 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

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1,496 citations

Book Chapter•DOI•

Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change

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Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, Gareth J. Marshall, John Turner

01 Jan 2013

958 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

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Morris A. Bender¹, Thomas R. Knutson¹, Robert E. Tuleya², Joseph J. Sirutis¹, Gabriel A. Vecchi¹, Stephen T. Garner¹, Isaac M. Held¹ - Show less +3 more•Institutions (2)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration¹, Old Dominion University²

22 Jan 2010-Science

TL;DR: The authors explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions.

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Abstract: Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

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897 citations

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References

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Open Access

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Journal Article•DOI•

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project

[...]

Eugenia Kalnay, Masao Kanamitsu, Robert Kistler, William D. Collins, D.G. Deaven, L. S. Gandin, M. Iredell, Suranjana Saha, Glenn H. White, John S. Woollen, Yuejian Zhu, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Wayne Higgins, John E. Janowiak, Kingtse C. Mo, Chester F. Ropelewski, Julian X. L. Wang, Ants Leetmaa, Richard W. Reynolds, Roy L. Jenne, Dennis Joseph - Show less +18 more

01 Mar 1996-Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.

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Abstract: The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...

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28,145 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

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Kerry Emanuel¹•Institutions (1)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology¹

04 Aug 2005-Nature

TL;DR: An index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, is defined and shows that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s, due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities.

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Abstract: Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.

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3,518 citations

"Environmental Factors Affecting Tro..." refers background or methods or result in this paper

...As discussed in the online supplement to Emanuel (2005), and in the appendix of this paper, interpretation of the record of tropical cyclone variability is hampered by serious issues of data quality brought about by changing and variable methods of wind speed estimation and reporting problems....
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...Emanuel (2005) showed that, in the Atlantic, the PDI, when smoothed over several years, is strongly correlated with sea surface temperature in the later summer and early fall in the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean, while in the western North Pacific region, the correlation,…...
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...…much if not all of the discrepancy between the predictions of Emanuel (1987) and observed changes in potential intensity can be ascribed to the effects of changing outflow temperatures and average surface wind speeds in the tropical environment, as remarked previously by the author (Emanuel 2005)....
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...In the western North Pacific region, there are yet more serious problems with the tropical cyclone datasets, as discussed in the online supplement to Emanuel (2005)....
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...1 © 2007 American Meteorological Society JCLI4329 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 04/13/22 12:54 PM UTC in the western North Pacific.1 For comparison, the sea surface temperatures in the main development regions of each basin, as defined in Emanuel (2005), are also shown....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.

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Peter J. Webster¹, Greg J. Holland¹, Greg J. Holland², Judith A. Curry¹, Judith A. Curry², Hai-Ru Chang², Hai-Ru Chang¹ - Show less +3 more•Institutions (2)

Georgia Institute of Technology¹, National Center for Atmospheric Research²

16 Sep 2005-Science

TL;DR: A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 and the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.

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Abstract: We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.

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2,989 citations

"Environmental Factors Affecting Tro..." refers background in this paper

...…used to characterize tropical cyclone activity, including annual storm counts, the total duration of storms whose maximum wind speed exceeds a threshold value (Landsea 1993), hurricane categories (Simpson 1974; Webster et al. 2005), and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000)....
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...Various metrics have been used to characterize tropical cyclone activity, including annual storm counts, the total duration of storms whose maximum wind speed exceeds a threshold value (Landsea 1993), hurricane categories (Simpson 1974; Webster et al. 2005), and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al....
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Journal Article•DOI•

An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance

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Kerry Emanuel¹•Institutions (1)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology¹

15 Mar 1986-Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the relative importance of ambient conditional instability and air-sea latent and sensible heat transfer in both the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones using highly idealized models.

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Abstract: Observations and numerical simulators of tropical cyclones show that evaporation from the sea surface is essential to the development of reasonably intense storms. On the other hand, the CISK hypothesis, in the form originally advanced by Charney and Eliassen, holds that initial development results from the organized release of preexisting conditional instability. In this series of papers, we explore the relative importance of ambient conditional instability and air-sea latent and sensible heat transfer in both the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones using highly idealized models. In particular, we advance the hypothesis that the intensification and maintenance of tropical cyclones depend exclusively on self-induced heat transfer from the ocean. In this sense, these storms may be regarded as resulting from a finite amplitude air-sea interaction instability rather than from a linear instability involving ambient potential buoyancy. In the present paper, we attempt to show that reasona...

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1,664 citations

"Environmental Factors Affecting Tro..." refers background in this paper

...…To k*0 k , 5 where Vp is the potential maximum wind speed (hereafter the “potential intensity”), Ck and CD are the surface exchange coefficients for enthalpy and momentum, respectively, Ts is the sea surface temperature, To is an entropy-weighted mean outflow temperature [see Emanuel 1986, his Eq....
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...…attempt to relate it to sea surface temperature (SST), extant theory suggests that such control is exercised through the potential intensity (Emanuel 1986; Bister and Emanuel 1998), defined as Vp 2 Ck CD Ts To To k*0 k , 5 where Vp is the potential maximum wind speed (hereafter the…...
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Journal Article•DOI•

The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate

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Kerry Emanuel¹•Institutions (1)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology¹

08 Apr 1987-Nature

TL;DR: In this article, a simple Carnot cycle model was used to estimate the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones under the somewhat warmer conditions expected to result from increased atmospheric CO2 content.

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Abstract: Tropical cyclones rank with earthquakes as the major geophysical causes of loss of life and property1. It is therefore of practical as well as scientific interest to estimate the changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity that might result from short-term man-induced alterations of the climate2. In this spirit we use a simple Carnot cycle model to estimate the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones under the somewhat warmer conditions expected to result from increased atmospheric CO2 content. Estimates based on August mean conditions over the tropical oceans predicted by a general circulation model with twice the present CO2 content yield a 40–50% increase in the destructive potential of hurricanes.

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878 citations

"Environmental Factors Affecting Tro..." refers background or result in this paper

...The increase in potential intensity over the past few decades is clearly greater than that predicted to have occurred in conjunction with the observed increase in sea surface temperature according to the theoretical results of Emanuel (1987) or the modeling results of Knutson and Tuleya (2004)....
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...Thus, much if not all of the discrepancy between the predictions of Emanuel (1987) and observed changes in potential intensity can be ascribed to the effects of changing outflow temperatures and average surface wind speeds in the tropical environment, as remarked previously by the author (Emanuel…...
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...Modeling studies (Rotunno and Emanuel 1987) suggest that tropical cyclones will attain their potential intensity given long enough to do so, provided that they are unmolested by adverse environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear and ocean interaction....
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...The theoretical prediction by Emanuel (1987) held the surface wind speed and thermodynamic efficiency fixed, and thus did not account for these influences on potential intensity; it should also be remarked that the changes in potential intensity presented in that paper that were based on a global…...
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...As remarked by Emanuel (2005), these increases are a great deal larger than one might have expected based on extant theory (e.g., Emanuel 1987) and models (Knutson and Tuleya 2004) given the observed changes in sea surface temperature over this period....
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