Equity in allocating carbon dioxide removal quotas
06 Apr 2020-Nature Climate Change (Springer Science and Business Media LLC)-Vol. 10, Iss: 7, pp 640-646
TL;DR: In this paper, the first nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement include no mention of the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) necessary to reach the Paris targets, leaving open the question of how and by whom CDR will be delivered.
Abstract: The first nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement include no mention of the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) necessary to reach the Paris targets, leaving open the question of how and by whom CDR will be delivered. Drawing on existing equity frameworks, we allocate CDR quotas globally according to Responsibility, Capability and Equality principles. These quotas are then assessed in the European Union context by accounting for domestic national capacity of a portfolio of CDR options, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, reforestation and direct air capture. We find that quotas vary greatly across principles, from 33 to 325 GtCO2 allocated to the European Union, and, due to biophysical limits, only a handful of countries could meet their quotas acting individually. These results support strengthening cross-border cooperation while highlighting the need to urgently deploy CDR options to mitigate the risk of failing to meet the climate targets equitably. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be necessary to meet climate targets. Applying equity principles to allocate national CDR quotas shows a large variation across countries and principles, while within the EU domestic biophysical limits constrain individual capacity to achieve them.
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01 Jan 2022
TL;DR: A comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in direct air capture materials, processes, economics, sustainability, and policy is presented in this article to inform, challenge and inspire a broad audience of researchers, practitioners, and policymakers.
Abstract: This comprehensive review appraises the state-of-the-art in direct air capture materials, processes, economics, sustainability, and policy, to inform, challenge and inspire a broad audience of researchers, practitioners, and policymakers.
96 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the technical potential for biogenic carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is quantified at 1 km resolution considering seven different BECCS configurations that do not require purpose-grown bio-energy plantations.
Abstract: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technology that will likely be necessary to reach global net-zero carbon dioxide emission goals. In order to assess the European BECCS potential, we quantify at 1 km resolution the technical potential for biogenic CDR considering seven different BECCS configurations that do not require purpose-grown bio-energy plantations. Combining process engineering with geospatial assessment, we find that up to 5% of 2018 European emissions, or about 200 million tons CO2 per year, could be mitigated with biogenic CDR from BECCS. Such potential is at the lower bound of the range of projected CDR needs for Europe. Two thirds of this potential is from existing point sources (pulp and paper, biomass co-fired, waste-to-energy, and wastewater treatment facilities), while one third is from distributed sources (crop residues, organic food waste, and livestock manure). From a geopolitical perspective, only a few European countries reach or exceed their CDR needs via BECCS. Those countries, which will not be able to reach carbon-neutrality with domestic biomass resources, will likely need to resort to other CDR strategies or import biomass from abroad. From a geographic perspective, distances from emission sources and storage sites are rather unfavourably distributed. Based on our quantitative assessment we conclude that: (1) tapping into the whole 200 million tons CO2 per year will be challenging because of the unfavourable source–sink distance distribution; (2) there is a need for more and better distributed prospective CO2 storage sites in Europe; and (3) the mobilization of these large amounts of CO2 will require the realization of a Europe-wide CO2 transportation network.
69 citations
04 Mar 2021
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a tripartite conceptual typology of the varieties of CDR policymaking: incremental modification of existing national policy mixes, early integration of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) policy that treats emission reductions and removals as fungible, and proactive CDRpolicy entrepreneurship with support for niche development.
Abstract: Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, spurred by the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, net zero emission targets have emerged as a new organizing principle of climate policy. In this context, climate policymakers and stakeholders have been shifting their attention to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as an inevitable component of net zero targets. The importance of CDR would increase further if countries and other entities set net-negative emissions targets. The scientific literature on CDR governance and policy is still rather scarce, with empirical case studies and comparisons largely missing. Based on an analytical framework that draws on the multi-level perspective of sociotechnical transitions as well as existing work on CDR governance, we gathered and assessed empirical material until early 2021 from 9 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cases: the European Union and three of its Member States (Ireland, Germany, and Sweden), Norway, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Based on a synthesis of differences and commonalities, we propose a tripartite conceptual typology of the varieties of CDR policymaking: 1) incremental modification of existing national policy mixes, 2) early integration of CDR policy that treats emission reductions and removals as fungible, and 3) proactive CDR policy entrepreneurship with support for niche development. Although these types do not necessarily cover all dimensions relevant for CDR policy and are based on a limited set of cases, the conceptual typology might spur future comparative work as well as more fine-grained case-studies on established and emerging CDR policies.
60 citations
National Technical University of Athens1, Imperial College London2, University of Geneva3, Aalborg University4, Bruegel5, University of Valladolid6, University of Oslo7, Polytechnic University of Milan8, Loughborough University9, University of Groningen10, University of the Basque Country11, University of Piraeus12
TL;DR: A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.
56 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies, finding that on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at netzero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass.
Abstract: Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO2 emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.
55 citations
References
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TL;DR: In accordance with decision 9/2 of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC) and endorsed by the Conference of the Parties in its decision, 3/CP.1 (FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1), the secretariat is to make available, in the official languages of the United Nations, the executive summaries of the national communications submitted by Annex I Parties.
Abstract: In accordance with decision 9/2 of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC) and endorsed by the Conference of the Parties in its decision, 3/CP.1 (FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1), the secretariat is to make available, in the official languages of the United Nations, the executive summaries of the national communications submitted by Annex I Parties.
2,787 citations
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Joint Global Change Research Institute4, National Center for Atmospheric Research5, National Institute for Environmental Studies6, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development7, Shanghai University8, Eni9, University of Washington10, Bocconi University11, KAIST12, Humboldt University of Berlin13, Wageningen University and Research Centre14, Polytechnic University of Milan15
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications, and find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socioeconomic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target.
Abstract: This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
2,644 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: The author summarizes recent U.N. global population projections up to the year 2025, focusing on the rates of overall growth, the changing balance of population between the developed and developing worlds, demographic aging, and urbanization.
Abstract: The author summarizes recent U.N. global population projections up to the year 2025. The focus is on the rates of overall growth the changing balance of population between the developed and developing worlds demographic aging and urbanization. (ANNOTATION)
2,480 citations
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1, ETH Zurich2, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency3, Wageningen University and Research Centre4, World Resources Institute5, University of Cape Town6, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro7, Graz University of Technology8, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9, University of Melbourne10
TL;DR: Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Abstract: The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
2,333 citations
Imperial College London1, RWTH Aachen University2, Cranfield University3, Loughborough University4, University of Sheffield5, Massachusetts Institute of Technology6, United States Department of Energy7, Newcastle University8, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation9, University of California, Berkeley10, University of Cambridge11, Carnegie Mellon University12, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne13, University of Melbourne14, Colorado School of Mines15
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the current state-of-the-art of CO2 capture, transport, utilisation and storage from a multi-scale perspective, moving from the global to molecular scales.
Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is broadly recognised as having the potential to play a key role in meeting climate change targets, delivering low carbon heat and power, decarbonising industry and, more recently, its ability to facilitate the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, despite this broad consensus and its technical maturity, CCS has not yet been deployed on a scale commensurate with the ambitions articulated a decade ago. Thus, in this paper we review the current state-of-the-art of CO2 capture, transport, utilisation and storage from a multi-scale perspective, moving from the global to molecular scales. In light of the COP21 commitments to limit warming to less than 2 °C, we extend the remit of this study to include the key negative emissions technologies (NETs) of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Cognisant of the non-technical barriers to deploying CCS, we reflect on recent experience from the UK's CCS commercialisation programme and consider the commercial and political barriers to the large-scale deployment of CCS. In all areas, we focus on identifying and clearly articulating the key research challenges that could usefully be addressed in the coming decade.
2,088 citations