Estimates and Determinants of SARS-Cov-2 Seroprevalence and Infection Fatality Ratio Using Latent Class Analysis: The Population-Based Tirschenreuth Study in the Hardest-Hit German County in Spring 2020.
Ralf Wagner,David Peterhoff,Stephanie Beileke,Felix Günther,Melanie Berr,Sebastian Einhauser,Anja Schütz,Hans Helmut Niller,Philipp Steininger,Antje Knöll,Matthias Tenbusch,Clara Maier,Klaus Korn,Klaus Stark,André Gessner,Ralph Burkhardt,Michael Kabesch,Holger Schedl,Helmut Küchenhoff,Annette Pfahlberg,Iris M. Heid,Olaf Gefeller,Klaus Überla +22 more
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In this paper, the authors conducted a population-based study including home visits for the elderly, and analyzed 4203 participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies via three antibody tests.Abstract:
SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratios (IFR) remain controversially discussed with implications for political measures. The German county of Tirschenreuth suffered a severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in spring 2020, with particularly high case fatality ratio (CFR). To estimate seroprevalence, underreported infections, and IFR for the Tirschenreuth population aged ≥14 years in June/July 2020, we conducted a population-based study including home visits for the elderly, and analyzed 4203 participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies via three antibody tests. Latent class analysis yielded 8.6% standardized county-wide seroprevalence, a factor of underreported infections of 5.0, and 2.5% overall IFR. Seroprevalence was two-fold higher among medical workers and one third among current smokers with similar proportions of registered infections. While seroprevalence did not show an age-trend, the factor of underreported infections was 12.2 in the young versus 1.7 for ≥85-year-old. Age-specific IFRs were <0.5% below 60 years of age, 1.0% for age 60–69, and 13.2% for age 70+. Senior care homes accounted for 45% of COVID-19-related deaths, reflected by an IFR of 7.5% among individuals aged 70+ and an overall IFR of 1.4% when excluding senior care home residents from our computation. Our data underscore senior care home infections as key determinant of IFR additionally to age, insufficient targeted testing in the young, and the need for further investigations on behavioral or molecular causes of the fewer infections among current smokers.read more
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Germany's low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence confirms effective containment in 2020: Results of the nationwide RKI-SOEP study
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References
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TL;DR: Investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China and found it to be a novel virus.
Journal ArticleDOI
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Marina Pollán,Beatriz Pérez-Gómez,Roberto Pastor-Barriuso,Jesús Oteo,Miguel A. Hernán,Miguel A. Hernán,Mayte Pérez-Olmeda,Jose L Sanmartín,Aurora Fernández-García,Aurora Fernández-García,Israel Cruz,Nerea Fernández de Larrea,Marta Molina,Francisco Rodríguez-Cabrera,Mariano Martín,Paloma Merino-Amador,Jose León Paniagua,Juan F Muñoz-Montalvo,Faustino Blanco,Raquel Yotti,Rodrigo Gutiérrez Fernández,Saturnino Mezcua Navarro,Matías Salinero Hernández,Manuel Cuenca-Estrella,Pablo Fernández-Navarro,Ana Avellón,Giovanni Fedele,Jesús Oteo Iglesias,María Teresa Pérez Olmeda,Maria Elena Martinez,Francisco D. Rodríguez-Cabrera,Susana Padrones Fernández,José Manuel Rumbao Aguirre,José M. Navarro Marí,Begoña Palop Borrás,Ana Belén Pérez Jiménez,Manuel Rodríguez-Iglesias,Ana María Calvo Gascón,María Luz Lou Alcaine,Ignacio Donate Suárez,Oscar Suárez Álvarez,Mercedes Rodríguez Pérez,Margarita Cases Sanchís,Carlos Javier Villafáfila Gomila,Lluis Carbo Saladrigas,Adoración Hurtado Fernández,Antonio Oliver,Elías Castro Feliciano,María Noemí González Quintana,José María Barrasa Fernández,María Araceli Hernández Betancor,Melisa Hernández Febles,Leopoldo Martín Martín,Luis-Mariano López López,Teresa Ugarte Miota,Inés De Benito Población,María Sagrario Celada Pérez,María Natalia Vallés Fernández,Tomás Maté Enríquez,Miguel Villa Arranz,Marta Domínguez-Gil González,Isabel Fernández-Natal,Gregoria Megías Lobón,Juan Luis Muñoz Bellido,Pilar Ciruela,Ariadna Mas i Casals,Maria Doladé Botías,M. Angeles Marcos Maeso,Dúnia Pérez del Campo,Antonio Félix de Castro,Ramón Limón Ramírez,Maria Francisca Elías Retamosa,Manuela Rubio González,María Sinda Blanco Lobeiras,Alberto Fuentes Losada,Antonio Aguilera,Germán Bou,Yolanda Caro,Noemí Marauri,Luis Miguel Soria Blanco,Isabel González,Montserrat Hernández Pascual,Roberto Alonso Fernández,Natalia Cabrera Castro,Aurora Tomás Lizcano,Cristóbal Ramírez Almagro,M. Hernández,Nieves Ascunce Elizaga,María Ederra Sanz,Carmen Ezpeleta Baquedano,Ana Bustinduy Bascaran,Susana Iglesias Tamayo,Luis Elorduy Otazua,Rebeca Benarroch Benarroch,Jesús Lopera Flores,Antonia Vázquez de la Villa +95 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a nationwide population-based study aims to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Spain at national and regional level.
Journal ArticleDOI
PROC LCA: A SAS Procedure for Latent Class Analysis
Abstract: Latent class analysis (LCA) is a statistical method used to identify a set of discrete, mutually exclusive latent classes of individuals based on their responses to a set of observed categorical variables. In multiple-group LCA, both the measurement part and structural part of the model can vary across groups, and measurement invariance across groups can be empirically tested. LCA with covariates extends the model to include predictors of class membership. In this article, we introduce PROC LCA, a new SAS procedure for conducting LCA, multiple-group LCA, and LCA with covariates. The procedure is demonstrated using data on alcohol use behavior in a national sample of high school seniors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland.
Daniel F. Gudbjartsson,Gudmundur L. Norddahl,Páll Melsted,Kristbjorg Gunnarsdottir,Hilma Holm,Elias Eythorsson,Asgeir O. Arnthorsson,Dadi Helgason,Kristbjorg Bjarnadottir,Ragnar Freyr Ingvarsson,Brynja Thorsteinsdottir,Steinunn Kristjánsdóttir,Kolbrun Birgisdottir,Anna M. Kristinsdottir,Martin I. Sigurdsson,Gudny A. Arnadottir,Erna V. Ivarsdottir,Margret B. Andresdottir,Frosti Jonsson,Arna B Agustsdottir,Jonas Berglund,Berglind Eiriksdottir,Run Fridriksdottir,Elisabet E Gardarsdottir,Magnus Gottfredsson,Olafia S Gretarsdottir,Steinunn Gudmundsdottir,Kjartan R Gudmundsson,Thora R Gunnarsdottir,Arnaldur Gylfason,Agnar Helgason,Brynjar O. Jensson,Aslaug Jonasdottir,Hakon Jonsson,Thordur Kristjansson,Karl G. Kristinsson,Droplaug N Magnusdottir,Olafur T. Magnusson,Lovisa Bjork Olafsdottir,Solvi Rognvaldsson,Louise le Roux,Gudrun Sigmundsdottir,Asgeir Sigurdsson,Gardar Sveinbjornsson,Kristin E Sveinsdottir,Maney Sveinsdottir,Emil A Thorarensen,Bjarni Thorbjornsson,Marianna Thordardottir,Jona Saemundsdottir,S Hjortur Kristjansson,Kamilla S Josefsdottir,Gisli Masson,Gudmundur Georgsson,Mar Kristjansson,Alma D. Möller,Runolfur Palsson,Thorolfur Gudnason,Unnur Thorsteinsdottir,Ingileif Jonsdottir,Patrick Sulem,Kari Stefansson +61 more
TL;DR: The authors' results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis, and antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study.
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications.
Andrew T. Levin,Andrew T. Levin,William P. Hanage,Nana Owusu-Boaitey,Kensington B. Cochran,Seamus P. Walsh,Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz +6 more
TL;DR: The results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza.
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