Estimating the financial risks of Andropogon gayanus to greenhouse gas abatement projects in northern Australia
01 Jun 2013-Environmental Research Letters (Institute of Physics Publishing)-Vol. 8, Iss: 2, pp 1-10
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes.
Abstract: Financial mechanisms such as offsets are one strategy to abate greenhouse gas emissions, and the carbon market is expanding with a growing demand for offset products. However, in the case of carbon offsets, if the carbon is released due to intentional or unintentional reversal through environmental events such as fire, the financial liability to replace lost offsets will likely fall on the provider. This liability may have implications for future participation in programmes, but common strategies such as buffer pool and insurance products can be used to minimize this liability. In order for these strategies to be effective, an understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of expected reversals is needed. We use the case study of savanna burning, an approved greenhouse gas abatement methodology under the Carbon Farming Initiative in Australia, to examine potential risks to carbon markets in northern Australia and quantify the financial risks. We focus our analysis on the threat of Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) to savanna burning due to its documented impacts of increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. We assess the spatial and financial extent to which gamba grass poses a risk to savanna burning programmes in northern Australia. We find that 75% of the eligible area for savanna burning is spatially coincident with the high suitability range for gamba grass. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of gamba grass seriously impacts the financial viability of savanna burning projects. For example, in order to recuperate the annual costs of controlling 1 ha of gamba grass infestation, 290 ha of land must be enrolled in annual carbon abatement credits. Our results show an immediate need to contain gamba grass to its current extent to avoid future spread into large expanses of land, which are currently profitable for savanna burning.
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University of Florida1, University of Bonn2, Blaise Pascal University3, Institut national de la recherche agronomique4, Stanford University5, Prince of Songkla University6, Agricultural Research Service7, University of Arizona8, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center9, Kansas State University10, International Water Management Institute11, Washington State University12, Michigan State University13, University of Leeds14, CGIAR15, Counterintelligence Field Activity16, Spanish National Research Council17, University of Tübingen18, University of Guelph19, Texas A&M University20, University of Maryland, College Park21, Aarhus University22, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research23, Indian Agricultural Research Institute24, Goddard Institute for Space Studies25, Rothamsted Research26, University of Hohenheim27, Wageningen University and Research Centre28, Chinese Academy of Sciences29, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation30, China Agricultural University31, Nanjing Agricultural University32
TL;DR: The authors systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating.
Abstract: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
1,461 citations
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University of Sydney1, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada2, Institut national de la recherche agronomique3, Natural Resources Conservation Service4, Centre national de la recherche scientifique5, National Taiwan University6, Nanjing Agricultural University7, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur8, James Hutton Institute9, Landcare Research10, Rural Development Administration11, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya12, British Geological Survey13, Wageningen University and Research Centre14, University College Dublin15, Colorado State University16, World Agroforestry Centre17, Université catholique de Louvain18
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors surveyed the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock estimates and sequestration potentials from 20 regions in the world (New Zealand, Chile, South Africa, Australia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria, India, China Taiwan, South Korea, China Mainland, United States of America, France, Canada, Belgium, England & Wales, Ireland, Scotland, and Russia).
1,171 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive review of negative emissions technologies (NETs) is presented, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration.
Abstract: The most recent IPCC assessment has shown an important role for negative emissions technologies (NETs) in limiting global warming to 2 °C cost-effectively. However, a bottom-up, systematic, reproducible, and transparent literature assessment of the different options to remove CO2 from the atmosphere is currently missing. In part 1 of this three-part review on NETs, we assemble a comprehensive set of the relevant literature so far published, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration. In this part, part 2 of the review, we present estimates of costs, potentials, and side-effects for these technologies, and qualify them with the authors' assessment. Part 3 reviews the innovation and scaling challenges that must be addressed to realise NETs deployment as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Based on a systematic review of the literature, our best estimates for sustainable global NET potentials in 2050 are 0.5–3.6 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for afforestation and reforestation, 0.5–5 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for BECCS, 0.5–2 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for biochar, 2–4 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for enhanced weathering, 0.5–5 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for DACCS, and up to 5 GtCO2 yr⁻¹ for soil carbon sequestration. Costs vary widely across the technologies, as do their permanency and cumulative potentials beyond 2050. It is unlikely that a single NET will be able to sustainably meet the rates of carbon uptake described in integrated assessment pathways consistent with 1.5 °C of global warming.
772 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight the present status, challenges, and potential of biogas technology to advocate for further research, development and dissemination of the concept in developing countries, and highlight the need for concerted efforts from both governmental and non-governmental sectors to harness the inherent potential that is currently underutilized and unexploited.
Abstract: Energy is an indispensable part of modern society and can serve as one of the most important indicators of socio-economic development. Despite advancements in technology, however, some three billion people, primarily in the rural areas of developing countries, continue to meet their energy needs for cooking through traditional means by burning biomass resources (i.e., firewood, crop residues and animal dung) in crude traditional stoves. Such practices are known to be the source of significant environmental, social, economic and public health issues. To achieve sustainable development in these regions, it is imperative that access to clean and affordable (renewable) energy is made available. Within this context, upgrading existing biomass resources (i.e., animal manure, crop residues, kitchen waste and green wastes) to cleaner and more efficient energy carriers (such as biogas from anaerobic digestion) has unique potential to provide clean and reliable energy, while simultaneously preserving the local and global environment. In spite of its significant potential to serve developing nations, however, the high costs and lack of expertise in installation and maintenance of biogas technology preclude widespread adoption in geographically isolated communities. Concerted efforts from both governmental and non-governmental sectors are absolutely essential in facilitating modernization and dissemination of biogas technology to harness the inherent potential that is currently underutilized and unexploited. The intent of this paper seeks to highlight the present status, challenges, and potential of biogas technology to advocate for further research, development and dissemination of the concept in developing countries.
444 citations
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TL;DR: This article examined the science-of-science communication measurement problem and found that there is little disagreement among culturally diverse citizens on what science knows about climate change, and that the source of the climate change controversy and like disputes is the contamination of education and politics with forms of cultural status competition that make it impossible for diverse citizens to express their reason as both collective-knowledge acquirers and cultural-identity protectors at the same time.
Abstract: This paper examines the science-of-science-communication measurement problem. In its simplest form, the problem reflects the use of externally invalid measures of the dynamics that generate cultural conflict over risk and other policy-relevant facts. But at a more fundamental level, the science-of-science-communication measurement problem inheres in the phenomena being measured themselves. The “beliefs” individuals form about a societal risk such as climate change are not of a piece; rather they reflect the distinct clusters of inferences that individuals draw as they engage information for two distinct ends: to gain access to the collective knowledge furnished by science, and to enjoy the sense of identity enabled by membership in a community defined by particular cultural commitments. The paper shows how appropriately designed “science comprehension” tests — one general, and one specific to climate change — can be used to measure individuals’ reasoning proficiency as collective-knowledge acquirers independently of their reasoning proficiency as cultural-identity protectors. Doing so reveals that there is in fact little disagreement among culturally diverse citizens on what science knows about climate change. The source of the climate-change controversy and like disputes is the contamination of education and politics with forms of cultural status competition that make it impossible for diverse citizens to express their reason as both collective-knowledge acquirers and cultural-identity protectors at the same time.
410 citations
References
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Stockholm University1, Stockholm Environment Institute2, Australian National University3, University of Alaska Fairbanks4, Université catholique de Louvain5, University of East Anglia6, Wageningen University and Research Centre7, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences8, University of Oxford9, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research10, James Cook University11, Arizona State University12, Royal Institute of Technology13, University of Minnesota14, University of Vermont15, Stockholm International Water Institute16, California State University San Marcos17, Goddard Institute for Space Studies18, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation19, University of Arizona20, Max Planck Society21
TL;DR: Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.
Abstract: Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.
8,837 citations
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TL;DR: This work uses atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as a single, simple indicator to track the progression of the Anthropocene, the current epoch in which humans and the authors' societies have become a global geophysical force.
Abstract: We explore the development of the Anthropocene, the current epoch in which humans and our societies have become a global geophysical force. The Anthropocene began around 1800 with the onset of industrialization, the central feature of which was the enormous expansion in the use of fossil fuels. We use atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as a single, simple indicator to track the progression of the Anthropocene. From a preindustrial value of 270-275 ppm, atmospheric carbon dioxide had risen to about 310 ppm by 1950. Since then the human enterprise has experienced a remarkable explosion, the Great Acceleration, with significant consequences for Earth System functioning. Atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen from 310 to 380 ppm since 1950, with about half of the total rise since the preindustrial era occurring in just the last 30 years. The Great Acceleration is reaching criticality. Whatever unfolds, the next few decades will surely be a tipping point in the evolution of the Anthropocene.
2,585 citations
"Estimating the financial risks of A..." refers background in this paper
...Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. to address these (Rockstrom et al 2009, Steffen et al 2007)....
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01 May 2008
TL;DR: The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) market has been successful in its mission of reducing emissions through internal abatement at home, and of stimulating emission reductions abroad as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The carbon market is the most visible result of early regulatory efforts to mitigate climate change. Regulation constraining carbon emissions has spawned an emerging carbon market that was valued at US$64 billion (Euro 47 billion) in 2007. Its biggest success so far has been to send market signals for the price of mitigating carbon emissions. This, in turn, has stimulated innovation and carbon abatement worldwide, as motivated individuals, communities, companies and governments have cooperated to reduce emissions. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) market has been successful in its mission of reducing emissions through internal abatement at home, and of stimulating emission reductions abroad. The European Commission, learning from the experience of Phase I, has strengthened several important design elements for EU ETS Phase II. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) accounted for the vast majority of project-based transactions (at 87 percent of volumes and 91percent of values) and JI saw transacted volumes doubling and values tripling in 2007 over the previous year. The CDM alone saw primary transactions worth US$7.4 billion (Euro 5.4 billion), with demand coming mainly from private sector entities in the EU, but also from EU governments and Japan.
607 citations
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TL;DR: A review of the potential applications of nanotechnology in the field of agriculture is presented in this article, which recommends many strategies for the advancement of scientific and technological knowledge currently being examined.
Abstract: Nanotechnology has great potential, as it can enhance the quality of life through its applications in various fields like agriculture and the food system. Around the world it has become the future of any nation. But we must be very careful with any new technology to be introduced regarding its possible unforeseen related risks that may come through its positive potential. However, it is also critical for the future of a nation to produce a trained future workforce in nanotechnology. In this process, to inform the public at large about its advantages is the first step; it will result in a tremendous increase in interest and new applications in all the domains will be discovered. With this idea, the present review has been written. There is great potential in nanoscience and technology in the provision of state-of-the-art solutions for various challenges faced by agriculture and society today and in the future. Climate change, urbanization, sustainable use of natural resources and environmental issues like runoff and accumulation of pesticides and fertilizers are the hot issues for today’s agriculture. This paper reviews some of the potential applications of nanotechnology in the field of agriculture and recommends many strategies for the advancement of scientific and technological knowledge currently being examined.
428 citations
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01 Jul 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a synthesis of the natural values and ecology of north Australia together with recommendations for actions needed to maintain these values and provide evidence for the need to take these values into account.
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241 citations
"Estimating the financial risks of A..." refers background in this paper
...The Australian savanna region is vast, covering 25% of the Australian landmass (∼2 million km2) (Woinarski et al 2007)....
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