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Estimating the Social Return to Higher Education: Evidence From Longitudinal and Repeated Cross-Sectional Data
TL;DR: This article used a confidential version of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate a model of non-random selection of workers among cities and then investigated the hypothesis that the correlation between college share and wages is due to unobservable individual characteristics that may raise wages and be correlated with college share.
Abstract: Economists have speculated for at least a century that the social return to education may exceed the private return. In this paper, I estimate spillovers from college education by comparing wages for otherwise similar individuals who work in cities with different shares of college graduates in the labor force. OLS estimates show a large positive relationship between the share of college graduates in a city and individual wages, over and above the private return to education. A key issue in this comparison is the presence of unobservable individual characteristics, such as ability, that may raise wages and be correlated with college share. I use a confidential version of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate a model of non-random selection of workers among cities. By observing the same individual over time, I can control for differences in unobserved ability across individuals and differences in the return to skills across cities. I then investigate the hypothesis that the correlation between college share and wages is due to unobservable city-specific shocks that may raise wages and attract more highly educated workers to different cities. To control for this source of potential bias, I turn to Census data and use two instrumental variables: the lagged city demographic structure and the presence of a land--grant college. The results from Census data are remarkably consistent with those based on the NLSY sample. A percentage point increase in the supply of college graduates raises high school drop-outs' wages by 1.9%, high school graduates' wages by 1.6%, and college graduates wages by 0.4%. The effect is larger for less educated groups, as predicted by a conventional demand and supply model. But even for college graduates, an increase in the supply of college graduates increases wages, as predicted by a model that includes conventional demand and supply factors as well as spillovers.
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TL;DR: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are programs that transfer cash, generally to poor households, on the condition that those households make pre specified investments in the human capital of their children.
Abstract: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are programs that transfer cash, generally to poor households, on the condition that those households make pre specified investments in the human capital of their children. The report shows that there is good evidence that CCTs have improved the lives of poor people. Transfers generally have been well targeted to poor households, have raised consumption levels, and have reduced poverty, by a substantial amount in some countries. Offsetting adjustments that could have blunted the impact of transfers, such as reductions in the labor market participation of beneficiaries, have been relatively modest. The report also considers the rationale for conditioning the transfers on the use of specific health and education services by program beneficiaries. Thus CCTs have increased the likelihood that households will take their children for preventive health checkups, but that has not always led to better child nutritional status; school enrollment rates have increased substantially among program beneficiaries, but there is little evidence of improvements in learning outcomes. These findings suggest that to maximize their potential effects on the accumulation of human capital, CCTs should be combined with other programs to improve the quality of the supply of health and education services, and should provide other supporting services.
2,017 citations
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...В образовании дополнительные эффекты могут возникнуть тогда, когда на совокупном уровне увеличивается доход от использования квалифицированной рабочей силы на производстве. существует эмпирическое подтверждение идеи, согласно которой более высокий уровень образования некоторых рабочих может…...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider the empirical literature on the nature and sources of urban increasing returns, also known as agglomeration economies, and show that the effects of aggoglomeration extend over at least three different dimensions.
Abstract: This paper considers the empirical literature on the nature and sources of urban increasing returns, also known as agglomeration economies. An important aspect of these externalities that has not been previously emphasized is that the effects of agglomeration extend over at least three different dimensions. These are the industrial, geographic, and temporal scope of economic agglomeration economies. In each case, the literature suggests that agglomeration economies attenuate with distance. Recently, the literature has also begun to provide evidence on the microfoundations of external economies of scale. The best known of these sources are those attributed to Marshall (1920): labor market pooling, input sharing, and knowledge spillovers. Evidence to date supports the presence of all three of these forces. In addition, there is also evidence that natural advantage, home market effects, consumption opportunities, and rent-seeking all contribute to agglomeration.
2,004 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling and found that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about.76% for whites and 3.4% for blacks.
Abstract: We estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling. We begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarceration using Census data. Instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance laws as an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for both blacks and whites. When estimating the impact of high school graduation only, OLS and IV estimators estimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability of incarceration. We clarify the relationship between OLS and IV estimates and show that the 'weights' placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates. Overall, the estimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about .76 percentage points for whites and 3.4 percentage points for blacks. We corroborate these findings using FBI data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes. The biggest impacts of graduation are associated with murder, assault, and motor vehicle theft. We also examine the effect of drop out on self-reported crime in the NLSY and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused by changes in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarceration conditional on crime. We estimate that the externality of education is about 14-26% of the private return to schooling, suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form of externalities from crime reduction.
1,771 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate how and why the productivity of a worker varies as a function of her co-workers in a group production process, and find strong evidence of positive productivity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift.
Abstract: We investigate how and why the productivity of a worker varies as a function of the productivity of her co-workers in a group production process. In theory, the introduction of a high productivity worker could lower the effort of incumbent workers because of free riding; or it could increase the effort of incumbent workers because of peer effects induced by social norms, social pressure, or learning. Using scanner level data, we measure high frequency, worker-level productivity of checkers for a large grocery chain. Because of the firm's scheduling policy, the timing of within-day changes in personnel is unsystematic, a feature for which we find consistent support in the data. We find strong evidence of positive productivity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift. A 10% increase in average co-worker permanent productivity is associated with 1.7% increase in a worker's effort. Most of this peer effect arises from low productivity workers benefiting from the presence of high productivity workers. Therefore, the optimal mix of workers in a given shift is the one that maximizes skill diversity. In order to explain the mechanism that generates the peer effect, we examine whether effort depends on workers' ability to monitor one another due to their spatial arrangement, and whether effort is affected by the time workers have previously spent working together. We find that a given worker's effort is positively related to the presence and speed of workers who face him, but not the presence and speed of workers whom he faces (and do not face him). In addition, workers respond more to the presence of co-workers with whom they frequently overlap. These patterns indicate that these individuals are motivated by social pressure and mutual monitoring, and suggest that social preferences can play an important role in inducing effort, even when economic incentives are limited.
1,069 citations
TL;DR: Moretti et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated workers' education, spillovers, and productivity at plant-level production functions using data from the California Center for Population Research on-line working paper series.
Abstract: ^California Center for Population Research p U n i v e r s i t y of California - L o s A n g e l e s Workers' Education, Spillovers, and Productivity: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions Enrico Moretti CCPR-012-03 January California Center for Population Research On-Line Working Paper Series
950 citations
References
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01 Jan 1988
Abstract: This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and international trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumulation and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through schooling, and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing.
19,093 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the determination of optimal resource allocation for invention will depend on the technological characteristics of the invention process and the nature of the market for knowledge, which is interpreted broadly as the production of knowledge.
Abstract: Invention is here interpreted broadly as the production of knowledge. From the viewpoint of welfare economics, the determination of optimal resource allocation for invention will depend on the technological characteristics of the invention process and the nature of the market for knowledge.
7,747 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors outline the production function approach to the estimation of the returns to R&D and then discuss in turn two very difficult problems: the measurement of output in R&DI intensive industries and the definition and measurement of the stock of R&DC 'capital'.
Abstract: The article outlines the production function approach to the estimation of the returns to R&D and then proceeds to discuss in turn two very difficult problems: the measurement of output in R&D intensive industries and the definition and measurement of the stock of R&D 'capital'. Multicollinearity and simultaneity are taken up in the next section and another section is devoted to estimation and inference problems arising more specifically in the R&D context. Several recent studies of returns to R&D are then surveyed, and the paper concludes with suggestions for ways of expanding the current data base in this field.
4,003 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities is discussed, and it is shown that if the amenity is also productive, then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive.
Abstract: This study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities. The theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive, then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive. The theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods. These extensions require little modification of the conclusion. The empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes. With the use of site price data, implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed.
2,940 citations
TL;DR: The authors suggests that the rapid increase in the proportion of college graduates in the United States labor force in 1970s may have been a causal factor in both the decline in the college premium during the 1970s and the large increase in inequality during the 1980s.
Abstract: A high proportion of skilled workers in the labor force implies a large market size for skill-complementary technologies, and encourages faster upgrading of the productivity of skilled workers. As a result, an increase in the supply of skills reduces the skill premium in the short run, but then it induces skill-biased technical change and increases the skill premium, possibly even above its initial value. This theory suggests that the rapid increase in the proportion of college graduates in the United States labor force in the 1970s may have been a causal factor in both the decline in the college premium during the 1970s and the large increase in inequality during the 1980s.
2,000 citations