Evaluating the simulated radiative forcings, aerosol properties, and stratospheric warmings from the 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol clouds
Sandip Dhomse,Graham Mann,Juan Carlos Antuna Marrero,Sarah Shallcross,Martyn P. Chipperfield,Kenneth S. Carslaw,Lauren Marshall,Lauren Marshall,N. Luke Abraham,Colin E. Johnson,Colin E. Johnson +10 more
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In this paper, the authors use the UM-UKCA composition-climate model to simulate the atmospheric evolution of the volcanic aerosol clouds from the three largest eruptions of the 20th century: 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Pinatubo.Abstract:
. Accurate quantification of the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate is a key requirement for better attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Here we use the UM-UKCA composition-climate model to simulate the atmospheric evolution of the volcanic aerosol clouds from the three largest eruptions of the 20th century: 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Pinatubo. The model has interactive stratospheric chemistry and aerosol microphysics, with coupled aerosol–radiation interactions for realistic composition-dynamics feedbacks. Our simulations align with the design of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison (ISA-MIP) Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment . For each eruption, we perform 3-member ensemble model experiments with upper, mid-point and lower estimates for SO2 emission, each initialised to a meteorological state to match the observed phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at the times of the eruptions. We assess how each eruption's emitted SO2 evolves into a tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol and analyse the subsequent dispersion to mid-latitudes. We compare the simulations to the three volcanic forcing datasets used in historical integrations for the two most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) assessments: the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) for CMIP6, and the Sato et al. (1993) and Ammann et al. (2003) datasets used in CMIP5. We also assess the vertical extent of the volcanic aerosol clouds by comparing simulated extinction to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE-II) v7.0 satellite aerosol data (1985–1995) for Pinatubo and El Chichon, and to 1964–65 northern hemisphere ground-based lidar measurements for Agung. As an independent test for the simulated volcanic forcing after Pinatubo, we also compare to the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Top-of-the-Atmosphere flux anomalies measured by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite instrument. For the Pinatubo simulations, an injection of 10 to 14 Tg SO2 gives the best match to the High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) satellite-derived global stratospheric sulphur burden, with good agreement also to SAGE-II mid-visible and near-infrared extinction measurements. This 10–14 Tg range of emission also generates a heating of the tropical stratosphere that is comparable with the temperature anomaly seen in the ERA-Interim reanalyses. For El Chichon the simulations with 5 Tg and 7 Tg SO2 emission give best agreement with the observations. However, these runs predict a much deeper volcanic cloud than present in the CMIP6 data, with much higher aerosol extinction than the GloSSAC data up to October 1984, but better agreement during the later SAGE-II period. For 1963 Agung, the 9 Tg simulation compares best to the forcing datasets with the model capturing the lidar-observed signature of peak extinction descending from 20 km in 1964 to 16 km in 1965. Overall, our results indicate that the downward adjustment to previous SO2 emission estimates for Pinatubo as suggested by several interactive modelling studies is also needed for the Agung and El Chichon aerosol clouds. This strengthens the hypothesis that interactive stratospheric aerosol models may be missing an important removal or redistribution process (e.g. effects of co-emitted ash) which changes how the tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol evolves in the initial months after an eruption. Our analysis identifies potentially important inhomogeneities in the CMIP6 dataset for all three periods that are hard to reconcile with variations predicted by the interactive stratospheric aerosol model. We also highlight large differences between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 volcanic aerosol datasets for the Agung and El Chichon periods. Future research should aim to reduce this uncertainty by reconciling the datasets with additional stratospheric aerosol observations.read more
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The response of ozone and nitrogen dioxide to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo at southern and northern midlatitudes
TL;DR: This article showed that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.
Journal ArticleDOI
Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations
Daniele Visioni,Douglas G. MacMartin,Ben Kravitz,Ben Kravitz,Olivier Boucher,Andrew Jones,Thibaut Lurton,Michou Martine,Michael J. Mills,Pierre Nabat,Ulrike Niemeier,Roland Séférian,Simone Tilmes +12 more
TL;DR: In this paper, results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6 sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the CMIP Phase 6.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.
Thomas Aubry,John Staunton-Sykes,Lauren Marshall,Jim Haywood,Jim Haywood,Nathan Luke Abraham,Anja Schmidt +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively.
Journal ArticleDOI
Volcanic effects on climate: recent advances and future avenues
TL;DR: In the last twenty years, several advances have been made, mainly due to improved satellite measurements and observations enabling the effects of small-magnitude eruptions to be quantified, new proxy reconstructions used to investigate the impact of past eruptions, and state-of-the-art aerosol-climate modelling that has led to new insights on how volcanic eruptions affect the climate as discussed by the authors .
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Interactive stratospheric aerosol models' response to different amounts and altitudes of SO2 injection during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption
Ilaria Quaglia,Claudia Timmreck,Ulrike Niemeier,Daniele Visioni,Giovanni Pitari,C. Brodowsky,Ch. Brühl,Sandip Dhomse,Henning Franke,Anton Laakso,Graham Mann,Eugene Rozanov,Timofei Sukhodolov +12 more
TL;DR: In this article , the authors compare the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol cloud following the well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption simulated with six interactive aerosol microphysics models to a range of observational data sets.
References
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