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Evaluation and selection of hedging policies using stochastic reservoir simulation

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TLDR
A hedging policy is characterized by three parameters, namely, starting water availability, ending water availability (EWA), and hedging factor (HF), and the effects of these three parameters on the reservoir performance indicators have been evaluated and discussed for a southwest monsoon-dependent within-year reservoir system in southern India as discussed by the authors.
Abstract
A hedging policy is characterized by three parameters, namely, starting water availability (SWA), ending water availability (EWA) and hedging factor (HF). The effects of these three parameters on the reservoir performance indicators have been evaluated and discussed for a southwest monsoon-dependent within-year reservoir system in southern India. For the performance evaluation, synthetically generated periodic inflow sequences from a periodic autoregressive model have been used. Quite a number of the 1800 hedging policies considered for the reservoir system, yield a better overall performance compared to the standard operating policy (SOP). Reliability, Resilience and vulnerability are found to increase with SWA for a specified EWA. On the other hand, all these performance indicators are found to decrease with EWA for a specified SWA. Hence, it is desirable to start the hedging at reasonably high SWA. All performance indicators remain practically constant at higher ranges of EWA for a given SWA. If hedging is started when there is enough water in storage, reliability, resilience and average deficit increase with degree of hedging, whereas vulnerability decreases significantly up to a hedging factor of 0.3. An interactive computer program has been developed for the selection of compromising hedging policies, and its usefulness has been discussed.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI

Optimal Hedging and Carryover Storage Value

TL;DR: In this paper, the fundamental decision of how much water to release for beneficial use and retain for potential future use is examined analytically, and explicit correspondence is established between optimal hedging and the value of carryover storage.
Journal ArticleDOI

Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System

TL;DR: A neural network model is developed for the simulation of the reservoir system operation and is used instead of a conventional simulation model for the application of the hedging rule, which is a more appropriate rule for reservoir operation under deficit conditions.
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Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming

TL;DR: In this article, the optimal hedging rules for simultaneously minimizing short and long-term shortage characteristics for a water-supply reservoir were derived for real-time reservoir operations, and the results show that the suggested method can effectively achieve the reservoir operation goal.
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Bilevel model for multi-reservoir operating policy in inter-basin water transfer-supply project

TL;DR: A bilevel model is presented to consider water transfer and water supply together, in view of the hierarchical structure of the problem, which renders this problem unsuitable for modeling by conventional method.
Journal ArticleDOI

Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 2. A numerical model

TL;DR: In this paper, You and Cai presented a method that derives a hedging rule from theoretical analysis with an explicit two-period Markov hydrology model, a particular form of nonlinear utility function, and a given inflow probability distribution.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation

TL;DR: In this paper, three criteria for evaluating the performance of water resource systems are discussed, i.e., reliability, resilience, and vulnerability, which describe how likely a system is to fail, how quickly it recovers from failure, and how severe the consequences of failure may be.
Journal ArticleDOI

Reservoir Management and Operations Models: A State‐of‐the‐Art Review

TL;DR: The objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art of mathematical models developed for reservoir operations, including simulation, which include linear programming, dynamic programming, nonliner programming, and simulation.
Journal ArticleDOI

Reservoir‐System Simulation and Optimization Models

TL;DR: A broad array of computer models have been developed for evaluating reservoir operations as discussed by the authors, and selecting a modeling and analysis approach for a particular application depends upon the characteristics of the reservoir characteristics.
Journal ArticleDOI

A Programming Model for Analysis of the Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability of a Water Supply Reservoir

TL;DR: In this article, the tradeoffs between reliability, vulnerability, and resilience were examined using multiobjective mixed-integer, linear programming, and it was found that as reliability is increased or as the maximum length of consecutive shortfalls decreases (resilience increases), the vulnerability of the water system to larger deficits increases.
Journal ArticleDOI

Water‐Supply Operations during Drought: Continuous Hedging Rule

TL;DR: In this article, a polytope search algorithm using a combination of simulation and optimization is compared to an iterative mixed integer programming method to determine the parameters of continuous demand management rules.
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