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Journal ArticleDOI

Expert System for Drought Management Planning

01 Oct 1987-Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering (American Society of Civil Engineers)-Vol. 1, Iss: 4, pp 284-297
TL;DR: A methodology in which an expert system shell (INSIGHT 2+) is used to evaluate and display information on drought management planning and a linear programming model is usedto generate optimal operating policies as a function of numerous past drought experiences is presented.
Abstract: Expert systems have been proposed for a wide range of civil engineering applications. They have been applied most successfully in situations governed by simple rules. Many civil engineering decisions, however, must be made in environments in which simple rules are not possible, but rather large amounts of data must be analyzed and evaluated. This paper presents a methodology in which an expert system shell (INSIGHT 2+) is used to evaluate and display information on drought management planning. A linear programming model is used to generate optimal operating policies as a function of numerous past drought experiences. These policies are incorporated into an expert system where the user is required to identify the degree to which the current drought situation is similar to past events. The expert system then aids the user in developing appropriate management policies based on time of year, descriptions of drought intensity, and other system characteristics.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, Mishra et al. reviewed different methodologies used for drought modeling, which include drought forecasting, probability based modeling, spatio-temporal analysis, use of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for drought scenarios, land data assimilation systems for drought modelling, and drought planning.

706 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A simple simulation-optimization model for reservoir sizing has been presented as an example of systems approach respond to practical needs of water resources engineers, and the benefits of knowledge-based technology with regard to single-multipurpose reservoir analysis.
Abstract: During the past three decades, the application of the systems approach to reservoir management and operations has been established as one of the most important advances made in the field of water resources engineering A primary role of systems analysis is to provide an improved basis for decision making It has been concluded that a gap still exists between research studies and the application of a systems approach in practice The objective of this paper is to provide a short review of the mathematical models used in reservoir management and operations, to present conclusions reached by previous state-of-the-art reviews, and to provide two ideas for closing the gap between theory and practice First, a simple simulation-optimization model for reservoir sizing has been presented as an example of systems approach respond to practical needs of water resources engineers The second example illustrates the benefits of knowledge-based technology with regard to single-multipurpose reservoir analysis

266 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results from the test application of DSS for 1997 flood in the Red River Basin are very promising and reveals that with revised operating rules the contribution of Assiniboine River to the flooding of Winnipeg city can be significantly reduced.
Abstract: Integrating human knowledge with modeling tools, an intelligent decision support system (DSS) is developed to assist decision makers during different phases of flood management. The DSS is developed as a virtual planning tool and can address both engineering and non-engineering issues related to flood management. Different models (hydrodynamic, forecasting, and economic) that are part of the DSS share data and communicate with each other by providing feedback. The DSS is able to assist in: selecting suitable flood damage reduction options (using an expert system approach); forecasting floods (using artificial neural networks approach); modeling the operation of flood control structures; and describing the impacts (area flooded and damage) of floods in time and space. The proposed DSS is implemented for the Red River Basin in Manitoba, Canada. The results from the test application of DSS for 1997 flood in the Red River Basin are very promising. The DSS is able to predict the peak flows with 2% error and reveals that with revised operating rules the contribution of Assiniboine River to the flooding of Winnipeg city can be significantly reduced. The decision support environment allows a number of "what-if" type questions to be asked and answered, thus, multiple decisions can be tried without having to deal with the real life consequences.

171 citations


Cites background from "Expert System for Drought Managemen..."

  • ...DSS have been developed for estuarine water-quality management (Cˆ amara, 1990), impact analysis of catchment policies (Davis et al., 1991), reservoir management and operations (Simonovic, 1992), regional water-resources planning (McKinney et al., 1993), stream flow forecasting (Bender and Simonovic, 1994), drought monitoring (Chang et al., 1996), drought management ( Palmer and Tull, 1987; Palmer and Holmes, 1988), and river management ......

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A decision support system (DSS) was developed for supporting integrated water resources management in Daegu city, Republic of Korea and indicated that the developed DSS is very useful to deal with complexWater resources management problems and could be further applied to similar cities in South Korea.
Abstract: Demands on fresh water by human beings have been continuously increasing due to population growth, living standard improvement, and economic development. At the same time, many regions are suffering greatly from floods and droughts. Those are the results of ineffective management of water resources due to the associated complexities. In this study, a decision support system (DSS) was developed for supporting integrated water resources management in Daegu city, Republic of Korea. The developed DSS contained four subsystems including database, modelbase, and knowledgebase, as well as general user interface (GUI). It was then connected with the National Water Management Information System (WAMIS). A flow prediction could be conducted through the incorporated HEC-HMS Version 3.0.1. Also, an urban water demand forecasting model was developed using an artificial neural network (ANN) based model. At the same time, a water resources management model based on genetic algorithm (GA) was developed in the DSS, facilitating efficient allocation of water resources among different regions within a city. The result indicated that the developed DSS is very useful to deal with complex water resources management problems and could be further applied to similar cities in South Korea.

66 citations


Cites methods from "Expert System for Drought Managemen..."

  • ...…commercial software packages for river flow forecasting (Bender & Simonovic, 1994), drought monitoring and management (Chang, Kleopa, & Teoh, 1996; Palmer & Tull, 1987; Palmer & Holmes, 1988), water allocation (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2003), flood management (Ahmad & Simonovic, 2001), and water…...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an expert system called Intelligent Flood Management System for the selection of appropriate flood damage reduction measures for a given area is described, which is based on hydraulic, hydrological, geotechnical, environmental and economic factors related to the river system and the area to be protected from floods.
Abstract: Heuristic knowledge has been integrated with analytical tools to support decision making for flood management. Development of an expert system called Intelligent Flood Management System for the selection of appropriate flood damage reduction measures for a given area is described. The selection of flood damage reduction measures is based on hydraulic, hydrological, geotechnical, environmental, and economic factors related to the river system and the area to be protected from floods. The knowledge base of the Intelligent Flood Management System is generic and can be used to identify a suitable flood management option for any area. The model base of the Intelligent Flood Management System consists of the hydraulic analysis package HEC-RAS, the flood damage analysis program HEC-FDA, and a model for economic analysis. The graphical user interface is developed for effective communication with the system. The developed system has been implemented to identify appropriate flood damage reduction options for the to...

56 citations


Cites background from "Expert System for Drought Managemen..."

  • ...Palmer (1987) developed an expert system for drought management planning....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The conclusions from this experience base is that well‐planned computerized DSSs succeeded in reducing operational costs; improving system efficiency and productivity; handling tasks previously considered infeasible; and increasing system reliability.
Abstract: A compendium of several important articles on the application of computerized decision support systems (DSS) in water resources management is presented. The articles cover software development, hardware selection, data acquisition and control, successes, pitfalls, and documentation of the benefits and values of these systems for a wide variety of applications, on both a small and large scale. DSSs are described for hydropower system operation, power load dispatch, computerized training simulators, center pivot irrigation systems, advanced supervisory data acquisition and control for transbasin diversion projects, large‐scale water supply systems, and operation of complex multipurpose, multireservoir systems. The conclusions from this experience base is that well‐planned computerized DSSs succeeded in: (1) Reducing operational costs; (2) improving system efficiency and productivity; (3) handling tasks previously considered infeasible; and (4) increasing system reliability.

76 citations

01 Nov 1983
TL;DR: Recent developments in expert systems point toward success for this technology in business environments, and executives who choose to ignore expert systems may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage within the next decade.
Abstract: Recent developments in expert systems point toward success for this technology in business environments Expert systems employ unique programming techniques to model expert decisions The production system has thus far proved to be the best programming method for expert knowledge Some expert systems have been verified as performing at an expert level, either scientifically or through field use Some examples of behavioural variables found in a business environment are described Executives who choose to ignore expert systems may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage within the next decade

55 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The approaches taken for managing and displaying data that are needed for, and derived from, this interactive modeling system are discussed.
Abstract: Since the mid-1970's, a number of research projects at Cornell University have focused on the development and application of interactive models and computer programs for studying water resources and environmental management problems. These models and programs have been adapted for use with computer graphics display devices. This interactive computer-aided planning system has been designed to facilitate data input, editing, and display; model building and solution; and analysis and synthesis of alternative resource management plans or policies. This paper discusses the approaches taken for managing and displaying data that are needed for, and derived from, this interactive modeling system. Several applications are presented and some conclusions on how such systems might be developed or expanded in the future are proposed.

29 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Oct 1959
TL;DR: In this article, Ef Es' Es' Ea, Es E,Ef Es Es' ea,Es E,Es Es E. Ea,Es E.
Abstract: IONS FOR IRRIGATION AS AT ASWAN East African Territories . Ethiopia Sudan Egypt Sudan and Egypt . Mean for Sudan and Egypt — — Y X X+Y X+Y M/Y M/Y M/Y M/Y M/Y M/Y 1-37 1 29-27 58-53 87-80 79 1-37 ? 24-79 49-59 74-38 87 1-37 ? 19*33 67-67 8700 80 1-37 ? 16-66 58-30 74-96 POTENTIAL HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER From Lake Victoria to Lake Albert Nimule to Juba . . . . Balas Tunnel Roseires Dam Sennar Dam Sabaloka Dam Fifth Cataract Dam . . . Fourth Cataract Dam Semna Dam Aswan Dam (p) . . . . Total power in the Sudan, north of Juba . . . . — E, Es E,Ef Ef Es' Ea— MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 284 84 152 333 564 821 713 2,238 Not computed Not computed Not computed 97 21 82 138 226 358 284 922 300 90 166 372 632 950 820 2,510 101 27 95 163 273 486 324

8 citations