The University of Manchester Research
Exploring management approaches for water and energy
in the data-scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic
uncertainty
DOI:
10.1080/07900627.2019.1591941
Document Version
Accepted author manuscript
Link to publication record in Manchester Research Explorer
Citation for published version (APA):
Basheer, M., Sulieman, R., & Ribbe, L. (2019). Exploring management approaches for water and energy in the
data-scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic uncertainty. International Journal of Water Resources
Development, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2019.1591941
Published in:
International Journal of Water Resources Development
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Download date:10. Aug. 2022
For Peer Review Only
Exploring management approaches for water and energy in
the data-scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic
uncertainty
Journal:
International Journal of Water Resources Development
Manuscript ID
CIJW-2018-0349.R3
Manuscript Type:
Original Paper
Keywords:
Nile Basin, storage dams, satellite-based rainfall products, satellite-
based reservoir monitoring, water-energy nexus, coordination
URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/cijw Email: CIJW-peerreview@journals.tandf.co.uk
International Journal of Water Resources Development
For Peer Review Only
1 Exploring management approaches for water and energy in the data-
2 scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic uncertainty
3 Mohammed Basheer
a, b *
, Rayyan Sulieman
a, c
, Lars Ribbe
a, d
4
a
Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Sub-tropics
5 (ITT), Technische Hochschule Köln, Betzdorferstr. 2, 50679, Cologne, Germany
6
b
Current affiliation: School of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Civil Engineering, The
7 University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
8
9
*
Corresponding author’s email: mohammedadamabbaker@gmail.com
10
c
email: rayyotop@gmail.com
11
d
email: lars.ribbe@th-koeln.de
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13 Exploring management approaches for water and energy in the data-
14 scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic uncertainty
15 This study examines management approaches for hydropower generation and
16 irrigation and domestic water supply for Tekeze-Atbara, a transboundary river
17 between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan, under above- and below- normal
18 hydrologic conditions considering current and future water demand scenarios.
19 Satellite data are used to substitute unavailable or inaccessible ground
20 meteorological and dam data. Based on three examined coordination scenarios,
21 the analysis finds that coordinating the management of the Sudanese dams would
22 bring significant benefits to water supply and energy generation. An optimisation
23 analysis is necessary to reveal the full value of coordination of dams in Tekeze-
24 Atbara Basin.
25 Keywords: Nile Basin; storage dams; satellite-based rainfall products; satellite-
26 based reservoir monitoring; water-energy nexus; coordination
27 Introduction
28 Access to sustainable water, energy, and food sources has become a major concern in
29 the modern-day especially under the ongoing rapid changes in the natural and human
30 environments. The demands for water, energy, and food in the Eastern Nile Basin
31 (ENB) countries (Figure 1) are speedily growing due to population growth, economic
32 development, and urbanisation (NBI, 2012). From 1990 to 2017, the total population of
33 the ENB countries increased from around 134 to 260 million (UN, 2017) and the
34 Human Development Index of the individual countries grew at different rates except for
35 South Sudan (UNDP, 2018). Moreover, around 80 million of the population of the ENB
36 countries lived in urban areas in 2017 compared to approximately 38 million in 1990
37 with the expectation to reach about 217 million by 2050 (UN, 2018). On the other hand,
38 climate change is expected to exhibit large-scale changes in the elements of the
39 hydrologic cycle such as precipitation and runoff (IPCC, 2008; N. Stern, 2006). For
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40 East Africa, several studies projected an increase in precipitation (Shongwe, Van
41 Oldenborgh, Van Den Hurk, & Van Aalst, 2011), whereas others reported a decrease
42 (Souverijns, Thiery, Demuzere, & Lipzig, 2016). Moreover, river flow has been
43 projected to increase in large parts of East Africa coupled with more frequent
44 successions of floods and a decrease in the severity of droughts (Cole, Elliott, & Strobl,
45 2014; Shongwe et al., 2011). In light of the above pressures and challenges, fulfilling
46 the present and future water, energy, and food demands requires consistent plans and
47 targets for water management (García-Vera, 2013), efficient and optimally-operated
48 energy generation systems (Boadi & Owusu, 2017; Peng, Xu, & Liu, 2016), and
49 enhanced agricultural practices (Amekawa, 2009; Møller, Drews, & Larsen, 2017;
50 Pradhan, Sijapati, & Bajracharya, 2015). Further, understanding the interdependences of
51 water, energy, and food systems is imperative for their sustainable management (Al-
52 Saidi & Elagib, 2017; Liu et al., 2017). Several studies investigated the nexus of water,
53 energy, and food in a variety of contexts and spatial and temporal scales and concluded
54 the importance of their joint management (Bazilian et al., 2011; Chirisa & Bandauko,
55 2015; Engström et al., 2017; Kurian, 2017; Larsen & Drews, 2019; Lindström & Granit,
56 2012).
57 Tekeze-Atbara River, the last major tributary of the Nile River before it ends in
58 the Mediterranean Sea, is geographically shared between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan
59 (Sutcliffe & Parks, 1999). Numerous studies have been published for the Nile Basin on
60 the management of water and energy resources under a variety of scenarios and climatic
61 conditions. However, few focused on or tested water management strategies for Tekeze-
62 Atbara Basin. A recent study by Digna, Mohamed, van der Zaag, Uhlenbrook, & Corzo
63 (2017) reviewed 36 published and unpublished simulation and optimisation models that
64 have been developed between 1958 and 2016 on management and planning of the Nile
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