External Validity of Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments
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In this article, the authors compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypoteuthetical choices and non-Hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit and the random parameter logit) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid).Abstract:
We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, across all methods, we find a reasonably high level of external validity. Our results suggest that the non-hypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the non-hypothetical ranking, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the random parameter logit can have superior predictive performance, but that the multinomial logit predicts equally well in some circumstances.read more
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References
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Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation, and compare simulation-assisted estimation procedures, including maximum simulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and methods of simulated scores.
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Mixed mnl models for discrete response
Daniel McFadden,Kenneth Train +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the adequacy of a mixing specification can be tested simply as an omitted variable test with appropriately definedartificial variables, and a practicalestimation of aarametricmixingfamily can be run by MaximumSimulated Likelihood EstimationorMethod ofSimulatedMoments, andeasilycomputedinstruments are provided that make the latter procedure fairly eAcient.
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