Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: It is concluded that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention and can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization.
Abstract: While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.
190 citations
TL;DR: A review of evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species-area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change is presented in this paper.
Abstract: There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species-area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor moni- toring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining 'old growth' species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.
189 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Models of the impact of climate change Another recent set of models have been developed to predict the impact of rising temperatures on organisms (Williams et al. 2003; Thomas et al. 2004)....
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...Another recent set of models have been developed to predict the impact of rising temperatures on organisms (Williams et al. 2003; Thomas et al. 2004)....
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...Thomas et al. (2004) looked at six biologically diverse regions around the world covering about 20% of the Earth’s land area and modelled the future distributions of 1,103 species including plants, mammals, birds, reptiles, frogs, butterflies and other invertebrates....
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TL;DR: Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages.
Abstract: By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages
189 citations
Additional excerpts
...the potential for species extinctions [13–15]....
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01 Jan 2003
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence.
Abstract: Abstract Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises—a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change.
188 citations
TL;DR: Connectivity on protected area periphery seems more effective than corridors linking protected areas, however, corridors serving other purposes, such as large carnivore movement, may be useful for accommodating species range shifts as well.
Abstract: The study of protected areas and climate change has now spanned two decades. Pioneering work in the late 1980s recognized the potential implications of shifting species range boundaries for static protected areas. Many early recommendations for protected area design were general, emphasizing larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between reserves. There were limited practical tests of these suggestions. Development of modeling and conservation planning methods in the 1990s allowed more rigorous testing of concepts of reserve and connectivity function in a changing climate. These studies have shown decreasing species representation in existing reserves due to climate change, and the ability of new protected areas to help slow loss of representation in mid-century scenarios. Connectivity on protected area periphery seems more effective than corridors linking protected areas. However, corridors serving other purposes, such as large carnivore movement, may be useful for accommodating species range shifts as well. Assisted migration and ex situ management strategies to complement protected areas are being explored. Finally, in scenarios of the latter half of the century, protected areas and connectivity become increasingly expensive and decreasingly effective, indicating the importance of reducing human-induced climate change.
188 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations