Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Nutrient enrichment modifies temperature-biodiversity relationships in large-scale field experiments
TL;DR: In this article, the authors manipulated nutrient enrichment in aquatic microcosms in subtropical and subarctic regions (China and Norway, respectively) to show clear segregation of bacterial species along temperature gradients, and decreasing alpha and gamma diversity toward higher nutrients.
Journal ArticleDOI
Land‐use and climate change effects on population size and extinction risk of Andean plants
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors predict the distributional responses of hundreds of plant species to changes in temperature incorporating population density distributions, migration rates, and patterns of human land use, and find that all species will experience large population losses regardless of migration rate.
Journal ArticleDOI
The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level
Brian Huntley,Rhys E. Green,Yvonne C. Collingham,Jane K. Hill,Jane K. Hill,Stephen G. Willis,Patrick J. Bartlein,Wolfgang Cramer,Ward Hagemeijer,Christopher Thomas +9 more
TL;DR: Climate envelope models provide the best approach currently available for evaluating reliably the potential impacts of future climate change upon biodiversity, and goodness-of-fit measures showed that useful models were fitted for >96% of species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change
Rocio Ponce-Reyes,Víctor-Hugo Reynoso-Rosales,James E. M. Watson,James E. M. Watson,Jeremy VanDerWal,Richard A. Fuller,Richard A. Fuller,Robert L. Pressey,Hugh P. Possingham +8 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that 68% of Mexico's cloud forest could vanish by 2080 because of climate change and more than 90% of cloud forest that is protected at present will not be climatically suitable for that ecosystem in 2080.
Journal ArticleDOI
Disregarding topographical heterogeneity biases species turnover assessments based on bioclimatic models
Miska Luoto,Risto K. Heikkinen +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated whether the inclusion of topographical heterogeneity in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change induced broad-scale butterfly species range size changes in Europe.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities
Norman Myers,Russell A. Mittermeier,Cristina G. Mittermeier,Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca,Jennifer Kent +4 more
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2001: the scientific basis
John Theodore Houghton,Y. Ding,David John Griggs,M. Noguer,P. J. van der Linden,X. Dai,K. Maskell,C. A. Johnson +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.
Osvaldo E. Sala,F. S. Chapin,Juan J. Armesto,Eric L. Berlow,Janine Bloomfield,Rodolfo Dirzo,E Huber-Sanwald,Laura Foster Huenneke,Robert B. Jackson,Ann P. Kinzig,Rik Leemans,David M. Lodge,Harold A. Mooney,Martín Oesterheld,N L Poff,Martin T. Sykes,Brian Walker,Marilyn D. Walker,Diana H. Wall +18 more
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Book
Species Diversity in Space and Time
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.