Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: Experimental designs in research on reptilian thermal physiology should incorporate the capacity for reversible phenotypic plasticity as a null- Hypothesis, because the significance of differential body temperature–performance relationships between individuals, populations, or species cannot be assessed without testing that null-hypothesis.
Abstract: Biological functions are dependent on the temperature of the organism. Animals may respond to fluctuation in the thermal environment by regulating their body temperature and by modifying physiological and biochemical rates. Phenotypic flexibility (reversible phenotypic plasticity, acclimation, or acclimatisation) in rate functions occurs in all major taxonomic groups and may be considered as an ancestral condition. Within the Reptilia, representatives from all major groups show phenotypic flexibility in response to long-term or chronic changes in the thermal environment. Acclimation or acclimatisation in reptiles are most commonly assessed by measuring whole animal responses such as oxygen consumption, but whole animal responses are comprised of variation in individual traits such as enzyme activities, hormone expression, and cardiovascular functions. The challenge now lies in connecting the changes in the components to the functioning of the whole animal and its fitness. Experimental designs in research on reptilian thermal physiology should incorporate the capacity for reversible phenotypic plasticity as a null-hypothesis, because the significance of differential body temperature–performance relationships (thermal reaction norms) between individuals, populations, or species cannot be assessed without testing that null-hypothesis.
163 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Hence, the concepts of a thermal niche (Kearney and Porter 2004) or climate envelope (Thomas et al. 2004) are useful only when they are resolved on a timedependent scale....
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TL;DR: The high fraction of potentially endangered species in southern Europe is a result of speciation during the Pleistocene, and species having colonised northern Europe afterwards have generally a large geographical range and are mainly generalists and thus buffered against climate change impacts.
Abstract: We analysed the sensitivity of European Trichoptera (caddisfly) species to climate change impacts based on their distribution and ecological preferences, and compared the fraction of species potentially endangered by climate change between the European ecoregions. The study covers 23 European ecoregions as defined by Illies (1978). For 1134 Trichoptera species and subspecies, we coded 29 parameters describing biological and ecological preferences and distribution based on the evaluation of more than 1400 literature references. Five parameters served to describe the species’ sensitivity to climate change impacts: endemism, preference for springs, preference for cold water temperatures, short emergence period, and restricted ecological niches in terms of feeding types. Of the European Trichoptera species and subspecies, 47.9% are endemic, 23.1% have a strong preference for springs, 21.9% are cold stenothermic, 35.5% have a short emergence period, and 43.7% are feeding type specialists. The fraction of endemic species meeting at least one of the four other sensitivity criteria mentioned above is highest in the Iberic-Macaronesian Region (30.2% of all species), about 20% in several other south European ecoregions, and about 10% in high mountain ranges. In 15 out of 23 ecoregions (including all northern European and lowland ecoregions) the proportion is less than 3%.
163 citations
Cites background or methods from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...…et al. , 2004), amphibians (Pounds et al. , 2006), terrestrial insects (Wilson et al. , 2005), spiders (Gobbi et al. , 2006), terrestrial plants (Fossa et al. , 2004; Skov and Svenning, 2004), combinations of different taxonomic groups (Thomas et al. , 2004) and hypothetical species (Travis, 2003)....
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...…techniques (recent reviews by Araujo and Rahbeck, 2006; Elith et al. , 2006) ranging from the local (del Barrio et al. , 2006) to the global scale (Thomas et al. , 2004), the quantification of climatically suited areas under future climatic conditions (Ohlem ller et al. , 2006), the use of Red…...
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TL;DR: The experimental evolution of cold tolerance in natural populations of threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) is reported, suggesting that cold tolerance is under strong selection and that marine sticklebacks carry sufficient genetic variation to adapt to changes in temperature over remarkably short time scales.
Abstract: Climate change is predicted to lead to increased average temperatures and greater intensity and frequency of high and low temperature extremes, but the evolutionary consequences for biological communities are not well understood. Studies of adaptive evolution of temperature tolerance have typically involved correlative analyses of natural populations or artificial selection experiments in the laboratory. Field experiments are required to provide estimates of the timing and strength of natural selection, enhance understanding of the genetics of adaptation and yield insights into the mechanisms driving evolutionary change. Here, we report the experimental evolution of cold tolerance in natural populations of threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We show that freshwater sticklebacks are able to tolerate lower minimum temperatures than marine sticklebacks and that this difference is heritable. We transplanted marine sticklebacks to freshwater ponds and measured the rate of evolution after three generations in this environment. Cold tolerance evolved at a rate of 0.63 haldanes to a value 2.58C lower than that of the ancestral population, matching values found in wild freshwater populations. Our results suggest that cold tolerance is under strong selection and that marine sticklebacks carry sufficient genetic variation to adapt to changes in temperature over remarkably short time scales.
163 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, various mechanistic models have been developed to estimate the magnitude of seed dispersal by wind, and to elucidate the relative importance of physical and biological factors affecting this passive transport process.
Abstract: Over the past century, various mechanistic models have been developed to estimate the magnitude of seed dispersal by wind, and to elucidate the relative importance of physical and biological factors affecting this passive transport process. The conceptual development has progressed from ballistic models, through models incorporating vertically variable mean horizontal windspeed and turbulent excursions, to models accounting for discrepancies between airflow and seed motion. Over hourly timescales, accounting for turbulent fluctuations in the vertical velocity component generally leads to a power-law dispersal kernel that is censored by an exponential cutoff far from the seed source. The parameters of this kernel vary with the flow field inside the canopy and the seed terminal velocity. Over the timescale of a dispersal season, with mean wind statistics derived from an “extreme-value” distribution, these distribution-tail effects are compounded by turbulent diffusion to yield seed dispersal distances that are two to three orders of magnitude longer than the corresponding ballistic models. These findings from analytic models engendered explicit simulations of the effects of turbulence on seed dispersal using computationally intensive fluid dynamics tools. This development marks a bifurcation in the approaches to wind dispersal, seeking either finer resolution of the dispersal mechanism at the scale of a single dispersal event, or mechanistically derived analytical dispersal kernels needed to resolve long-term and large-scale processes such as meta-population dynamics and range expansion. Because seed dispersal by wind is molded by processes operating over multiple scales, new insights will require novel theoretical tactics that blend these two approaches while preserving the key interactions across scales.
163 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Various distribution models raised concerns about the (insufficient) ability of plants to spread as fast as their viable ranges are expected to shift (Thomas et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005)....
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TL;DR: Estimated changes in cultural traits associated to the traditional knowledge of wild plant uses among an Amazonian indigenous society show that between 2000 and 2009, Tsimane' adults experienced a net decrease in the report of plant uses, equivalent to a 1 to 3 % per year.
163 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...Policy makers should also be concerned about the apparent parallel decline of the world’s biological (Sutherland, 2003; Thomas et al., 2004), linguistic (Harmon & Loh, 2010), and cultural diversity....
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References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
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26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations