Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
More filters
SYNTHESES Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change
TL;DR: It is argued that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition, resulting in a range-wide increase in extinction risk.
Journal ArticleDOI
Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate, non-climatic environmental factors, and spatial constraints
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a novel implementation of species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the degree to which African continental-scale species distributions in a keystone tropical group, the palms (Arecaceae), are controlled by climate, non-climatic environmental factors, or non-environmental spatial constraints.
Journal ArticleDOI
Species Distribution Modeling in the Tropics: Problems, Potentialities, and the Role of Biological Data for Effective Species Conservation:
Luis Cayuela,Duncan Golicher,Adrian C. Newton,M. Kolb,F. S. de Alburquerque,Eric Arets,Eric Arets,J. R. M. Alkemade,Ana Beatriz Alvarez Perez +8 more
TL;DR: SDMs have a great potential to support biodiversity conservation in the tropics, by supporting the development of conservation strategies and plans, identifying knowledge gaps, and providing a tool to examine the potential impacts of environmental change, but for this potential to be fully realized, problems of data quality and availability need to be overcome.
A status quo, vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the physical and socio-economic effects of climate change in the Western Cape
Guy F. Midgley,R. A. Chapman,Bruce Hewitson,Peter Johnston,M.P. de Wit,Gina Ziervogel,Pierre Mukheibir,L van Niekerk,Mark Tadross,B.W. van Wilgen,Barney S. Kgope,P D Morant,A.K. Theron,Robert J. Scholes,G. G. Forsyth +14 more
Journal ArticleDOI
Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.
Samuel M. Jantz,Brian Barker,Thomas M. Brooks,Louise Chini,Qiongyu Huang,Rachel M. Moore,Jacob Noel,George C. Hurtt +7 more
TL;DR: The number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000, depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities
Norman Myers,Russell A. Mittermeier,Cristina G. Mittermeier,Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca,Jennifer Kent +4 more
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2001: the scientific basis
John Theodore Houghton,Y. Ding,David John Griggs,M. Noguer,P. J. van der Linden,X. Dai,K. Maskell,C. A. Johnson +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.
Osvaldo E. Sala,F. S. Chapin,Juan J. Armesto,Eric L. Berlow,Janine Bloomfield,Rodolfo Dirzo,E Huber-Sanwald,Laura Foster Huenneke,Robert B. Jackson,Ann P. Kinzig,Rik Leemans,David M. Lodge,Harold A. Mooney,Martín Oesterheld,N L Poff,Martin T. Sykes,Brian Walker,Marilyn D. Walker,Diana H. Wall +18 more
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Book
Species Diversity in Space and Time
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.