Extinction risk from climate change
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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TL;DR: It is demonstrated that in vitro effectiveness of skin peptides correlates with the degree of decline in the face of an emerging pathogen, and this non-specific immune defense may be useful in predicting disease susceptibility in other species.
Abstract: Many species of amphibians in the wet tropics of Australia have experienced population declines linked with the emergence of a skin-invasive chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. An innate defense, antimicrobial peptides produced by granular glands in the skin, may protect some species from disease. Here we present evidence that supports this hypothesis. We tested ten synthesized peptides produced by Australian species, and natural peptide mixtures from five Queensland rainforest species. Natural mixtures and most peptides tested in isolation inhibited growth of B. dendrobatidis in vitro. The three most active peptides (caerin 1.9, maculatin 1.1, and caerin 1.1) were found in the secretions of non-declining species (Litoria chloris, L. caerulea, and L. genimaculata). Although the possession of a potent isolated antimicrobial peptide does not guarantee protection from infection, non-declining species (L. lesueuri and L. genimaculata) inhabiting the rainforest of Queensland possess mixtures of peptides that may be more protective than those of the species occurring in the same habitat that have recently experienced population declines associated with chytridiomycosis (L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and Nyctimystes dayi). This study demonstrates that in vitro effectiveness of skin peptides correlates with the degree of decline in the face of an emerging pathogen. Further research is needed to assess whether this non-specific immune defense may be useful in predicting disease susceptibility in other species.
160 citations
TL;DR: It is concluded that adult life-history traits that affect the postdispersal persistence of new populations are primary determinants of successful range extension and, consequently, of geographic range size among tropical reef fishes.
Abstract: Most marine organisms disperse via ocean currents as larvae, so it is often assumed that larval-stage duration is the primary determinant of geographic range size. However, empirical tests of this relationship have yielded mixed results, and alternative hypotheses have rarely been considered. Here we assess the relative influence of adult and larval-traits on geographic range size using a global dataset encompassing 590 species of tropical reef fishes in 47 families, the largest compilation of such data to date for any marine group. We analyze this database using linear mixed-effect models to control for phylogeny and geographical limits on range size. Our analysis indicates that three adult traits likely to affect the capacity of new colonizers to survive and establish reproductive populations (body size, schooling behavior, and nocturnal activity) are equal or better predictors of geographic range size than pelagic larval duration. We conclude that adult life-history traits that affect the postdispersal persistence of new populations are primary determinants of successful range extension and, consequently, of geographic range size among tropical reef fishes.
160 citations
Cites background or result from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...G range size is a fundamental biogeographic variable that, among other effects (1, 2), strongly influences a species susceptibility to extinction (3, 4)....
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...Frontiers of Biogeography 3(4):127–129....
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...However, our results indicate other life-history traits that may constrain range extension and thereby influence extinction risks (4)....
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TL;DR: Using the tsetse, Glossina pallidipes, it is shown that physiologic plasticity (resulting from temperature acclimation) accounts for among-population variation in thermal tolerance and water loss rates, and limited variation in CT(Max) supports bioclimatic models that suggest tsete are likely to show range contraction with warming from climate change.
Abstract: Using the tsetse, Glossina pallidipes, we demonstrate that physiological plasticity (resulting from temperature acclimation) accounts for among-population variation in thermal tolerance and water loss rates. Critical thermal minimum (CTMin) was highly variable among populations, seasons and acclimation treatments, and the full range of variation was 9.3 °C (maximum value = 3.1 × minimum). Water loss rate showed similar variation (max = 3.7 × min). By contrast, critical thermal maxima (CTMax) varied least among populations, seasons and acclimation treatments, and the full range of variation was only c.1 °C. Most of the variation amongst the four field populations could be accounted for by phenotypic plasticity, which in the case of CTMin develops within five days of temperature exposure, and is lost rapidly on return to the original conditions. Limited variation in CTMax supports bioclimatic models that suggest tsetse are likely to show range contraction with warming from climate change.
160 citations
Cites background from "Extinction risk from climate change..."
...They are therefore considered one of the most effective ways to obtain a rapid estimate of likely alterations in species’ distributions.(2) Nonetheless, they have been criticized on a variety of grounds....
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TL;DR: Analysis of 123 studies of assemblage-level abundances of focal taxa taken from multiple habitat fragments of varying size finds that increasing fragmentation has a disproportionately large effect on biodiversity loss, supporting the ecosystem decay hypothesis.
Abstract: Although habitat loss is the predominant factor leading to biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene1,2, exactly how this loss manifests—and at which scales—remains a central debate3–6. The ‘passive sampling’ hypothesis suggests that species are lost in proportion to their abundance and distribution in the natural habitat7,8, whereas the ‘ecosystem decay’ hypothesis suggests that ecological processes change in smaller and more-isolated habitats such that more species are lost than would have been expected simply through loss of habitat alone9,10. Generalizable tests of these hypotheses have been limited by heterogeneous sampling designs and a narrow focus on estimates of species richness that are strongly dependent on scale. Here we analyse 123 studies of assemblage-level abundances of focal taxa taken from multiple habitat fragments of varying size to evaluate the influence of passive sampling and ecosystem decay on biodiversity loss. We found overall support for the ecosystem decay hypothesis. Across all studies, ecosystems and taxa, biodiversity estimates from smaller habitat fragments—when controlled for sampling effort—contain fewer individuals, fewer species and less-even communities than expected from a sample of larger fragments. However, the diversity loss due to ecosystem decay in some studies (for example, those in which habitat loss took place more than 100 years ago) was less than expected from the overall pattern, as a result of compositional turnover by species that were not originally present in the intact habitats. We conclude that the incorporation of non-passive effects of habitat loss on biodiversity change will improve biodiversity scenarios under future land use, and planning for habitat protection and restoration. Analysis of 123 studies of assemblage-level abundances of focal taxa from fragmented habitats finds that increasing fragmentation has a disproportionately large effect on biodiversity loss, supporting the ecosystem decay hypothesis.
160 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species.
Abstract: Climate change and amphibians.— Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Nino events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species.
160 citations
References
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TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
24,867 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...Second, for cerrado vegetation in Brazil, high rates of habitat destructio...
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Extinction risk from climate change..." refers background in this paper
...gif" NDATA ITEM> ]> Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of specie...
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University of Buenos Aires1, University of Alaska Fairbanks2, University of Chile3, University of California, Berkeley4, Environmental Defense Fund5, National Autonomous University of Mexico6, Technische Universität München7, New Mexico State University8, Duke University9, Arizona State University10, University of Notre Dame11, Stanford University12, Colorado State University13, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation14
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
8,401 citations
Book•
26 May 1995TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.
Abstract: Preface 1 The road ahead 2 Patterns in space 3 Temporal patterns 4 Dimensionless patterns 5 Speciation 6 Extinction 7 Evolution of the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity 8 Species-area curves in ecological time 9 Species-area curves in evolutionary time 10 Paleobiological patterns 11 Other patterns with dynamic roots 12 Energy flow and diversity 13 A hierarchical dynamic puzzle References Index
4,812 citations